Thread by @mashabani

BIG: High-ranking Iranian source tells @amwajmedia that Trump team gave advance notice of bombings of nuclear sites and insisted they're intended as "one-off". Signs of Trump seeking repeat of Jan 2020 (Soleimani killing=>symbolic Iranian retaliation).

amwaj.media/en/media-monit…

Trump late on June 21 stated that Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear facilities have been “obliterated,” while threatening more strikes “if peace does not come quickly.” Bombings don't appear to have been conducted from any base in region, adding complexity to Iranian options.

Reports indicate that at least three B-2 bombers flying from the US dropped six MOP bunker busters on Fordow while a submarine fired 30 Tomahawk missiles at Isfahan and Natanz. Notably, both of the sites have been bombed by Israel in recent days.

Initial data that allows a damage assessment is still lacking. Prior to the bombings, some studies suggested that multiple MOPs would need to be dropped in the same craters given that Fordow is believed to be about 80-90 meters (262-295 feet) deep.

In a brief statement issued in the early hours of June 22 local time, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) slammed the US bombings as “a brutal act that contradicts international laws, especially the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).”

Already under severe attack by Israel, Iran has little interest in a simultaneous all-out war with the US. Prior to the June 21 bombings, Tehran declared that it was open to resuming nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration—but only if Israel ceases its attacks.

As @amwajmedia previously reported, Israel’s focus on the necessity for Trump to strike Fordow appears to have been designed to convince him to enter a war with Iran. Indeed, Iranian authorities have already indicated that nuclear materials were removed from Fordow.

Full overview of potential next steps, including symbolic and non-symbolic options for Iran (depending on damage assessment):

amwaj.media/en/media-monit…