How much damage did the U.S. and Israeli strikes really do to Iran’s nuclear program — and what comes next?
Here’s what some are missing 🧵:
Here’s what some are missing 🧵:
1/
On enrichment per se, skeptics not entirely wrong — technically, Iran can still enrich to HEU.
But can they do it unnoticed? Without giving Israel or the U.S. the chance to strike again — when they are now even more exposed than they were on June 11?
That’s the task: monitor materials & centrifuges, facilities and weapons scientists.
On enrichment per se, skeptics not entirely wrong — technically, Iran can still enrich to HEU.
But can they do it unnoticed? Without giving Israel or the U.S. the chance to strike again — when they are now even more exposed than they were on June 11?
That’s the task: monitor materials & centrifuges, facilities and weapons scientists.
2/
Here’s what skeptics missing:
It would have been far easier for Iran to do this before the strikes.
Here’s what skeptics missing:
It would have been far easier for Iran to do this before the strikes.
3/
If the JCPOA were intact, they wouldn’t even need to sneak — it would have been fully legitimized with Khamenei pocketing $1T in sanctions relief as restrictions sunset.
If the JCPOA were intact, they wouldn’t even need to sneak — it would have been fully legitimized with Khamenei pocketing $1T in sanctions relief as restrictions sunset.
4/
What many won’t admit: Iran had already started creeping toward a bomb.
There was no time to “wait and see.”
What many won’t admit: Iran had already started creeping toward a bomb.
There was no time to “wait and see.”
5/
The elimination of key weapons scientists and weaponization facilities means the Khamenei is blocked for now from achieving an operationally deployable bomb.
He now knows how deeply penetrated his nuclear and security establishment is by Mossad.
The elimination of key weapons scientists and weaponization facilities means the Khamenei is blocked for now from achieving an operationally deployable bomb.
He now knows how deeply penetrated his nuclear and security establishment is by Mossad.
6/
Any attempt by Iran to rebuild any part of its nuclear program will result in immediate American and Israeli attack.
From now on, Iran will be treated like the IDF treats Hezbollah in Lebanon: zero tolerance for any threatening capability.
Any attempt by Iran to rebuild any part of its nuclear program will result in immediate American and Israeli attack.
From now on, Iran will be treated like the IDF treats Hezbollah in Lebanon: zero tolerance for any threatening capability.
7/
Bottom line: The game has changed. Iran’s path to the bomb is severely damaged— for now.
But this will require vigilance, clear deterrence, and readiness to strike again if needed.
More soon — follow for updates. ⏳
Bottom line: The game has changed. Iran’s path to the bomb is severely damaged— for now.
But this will require vigilance, clear deterrence, and readiness to strike again if needed.
More soon — follow for updates. ⏳
8/
☢️ Monday at 12:30pm ET, @DavidHAlbright1 of @TheGoodISIS joins me on The Iran Breakdown for a deep technical look at what’s been hit — and what’s next. Catch it live on X @FDD, or on FDD’s YouTube and Facebook.
☢️ Monday at 12:30pm ET, @DavidHAlbright1 of @TheGoodISIS joins me on The Iran Breakdown for a deep technical look at what’s been hit — and what’s next. Catch it live on X @FDD, or on FDD’s YouTube and Facebook.
@DAVIDHALBRIGHT1 @TheGoodISIS @FDD 9/
Finally, the path to the cessation of strikes against the regime in exchange for full and permanent nuclear dismantlement remains open at Oman — as it has for months. Khamenei: your move.
Finally, the path to the cessation of strikes against the regime in exchange for full and permanent nuclear dismantlement remains open at Oman — as it has for months. Khamenei: your move.
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