kalshi must be sweating real bad watching polymarket constantly referenced as a source of truth for a massive geopolitical event
meanwhile they're completely absent with zero markets on the middle east conflict
it's more than missing a single news cycle. they're losing long-term path dependence
brand recognition + trust is everything when you're effectively a modern news outlet
and the effects compound
the media loop: coverage -> trust -> coverage
the market loop: traders -> liquidity -> traders
when polymarket is the sole reference without alternative, they become increasingly canonical, even for later events that both platforms support
kalshi's "safe" highly-regulated approach is actually riskier. win by being useful, not approved
meanwhile they're completely absent with zero markets on the middle east conflict
it's more than missing a single news cycle. they're losing long-term path dependence
brand recognition + trust is everything when you're effectively a modern news outlet
and the effects compound
the media loop: coverage -> trust -> coverage
the market loop: traders -> liquidity -> traders
when polymarket is the sole reference without alternative, they become increasingly canonical, even for later events that both platforms support
kalshi's "safe" highly-regulated approach is actually riskier. win by being useful, not approved
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