Thread by @wmhuo168

Another analyst is hyping Intel as TSMC’s only rival. In reality, it’s just a stock pump wrapped in tech jargon. Let’s take it apart.

Intel Is The Only Alternative To TSMC And Will Be A Leader In Advanced Packaging, Claims A Wall Street Analyst share.google/KT30IqlCEeSbFZ…

Intel’s Arizona and Oregon fabs aren’t catching up. They’re falling further behind. Years of delays, yield issues, and unproven process nodes. Yet this analyst talks like Intel’s 18A is already in your next phone. (1/12)

He calls Intel a packaging leader. Reality: Intel is still learning how to run its existing EUV tools. It hasn’t even qualified production on the ones it owns. And the two Hi-NA EUV machines? Not installed. Still sitting on the balance sheet. (2/12)

Intel’s so-called packaging advantage is vapor. ASE already dominates global OSAT. It’s operating at scale in China. That’s where the fan-out, 2.5D, and chiplet integration is happening. Not in Hillsboro. (3/12)

The analyst ignores supply chain fundamentals. Intel doesn’t have a packaging ecosystem in Oregon. It doesn’t have substrate vendors down the road. It doesn’t have thermal or materials partners nearby. This isn’t Taiwan. (4/12)

He talks like Intel’s competition is just TSMC. Wrong again. China is the real dark horse. SMIC and SiCarrier are already tuning EUV with homegrown DLP laser systems. They aren’t waiting for subsidies. They’re in production. (5/12)

While Intel issues roadmaps, China ships silicon. They’re closing the loop from toolchains to packaging to test. Quietly. At scale. With results. (6/12)

Intel’s so-called head start is political, not technical. Those Hi-NA machines weren’t earned. They were handed over by ASML under US pressure. Intel hasn’t demonstrated it can use them. (7/12)

This analyst isn’t independent. He’s a booster with a Bloomberg feed. Every Intel delay gets spun as “strategic patience.” Every vague milestone gets priced like it’s already delivered. (8/12)

China’s presence is erased completely. No mention of SMIC. No mention of SiCarrier. No mention of the real-world OSAT dominance China already holds. That’s not oversight. That’s narrative control. (9/12)

Intel doesn’t lead. It lags. And now it hides behind packaging as the new savior. The problem is, China already owns that space. And they didn’t need press releases to do it. (10/12)

Wall Street doesn’t want truth. It wants a story to unload a position. And this analyst is writing that story with a straight face and zero accountability. (11/12)

This isn’t about foundry leadership. It’s about selling hope to the last fool holding the stock. Don’t be that fool. (12/12)