Smart strategy from Coinbase to lean into the Exchange as a Service infra play in this competitive backdrop:
- Through de-regulation, competitors are popping up left and right to offer crypto to their users (i.e. Schwab)
- Over the last 13 years, Bryan has built a deeply trusted and recognized brand along with solid tech that's survived multiple crashes
- Competitors that want to offer crypto, still need to figure out how to do it (ends up being an insource vs. outsource decision)
- Coin's pitch is: leverage our full infra stack (custody, trading, secured crypto lending, staking, stablecoin payments, etc.) and plug it directly into your platform
- Customer now has a turnkey solution from a trusted brand that's battle tested in weeks vs. an internal build that could take years to build and test
- Still a competitive backdrop on the EaaS side (i.e Kraken) but far less so than the battle for retail customers
- Net net allows Coinbase to export their tech to power banks + brokerages across the ecosystem while their core retail users are actively being poached by competitors
- Classic left pocket vs right pocket w/ one pocket arguably being a much bigger market
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1. Rates Lower but Higher
- Market is pricing in some serious cuts in ‘24 with a ~80% chance of rates ending sub 4%
- I’m on the less aggro side and say we end ‘24 north of 4% but sub 5%
- I’m betting inflation is sticky on the way down and the fed will have trouble cutting
2. Crypto Market Cap >$2T
- Trustless financial systems will only become more valuable (esp with lower rates)
- Global conflict, migrant flows, inflationary fiat, and fallible banking systems are all tailwinds
- Crypto market cap sits at $1.7t today and is headed higher