Thread by @BullBitcoin_

What's the best strategy to accumulate more #Bitcoin?

Lump Sum: invest everything at once.
or
DCA: invest a fixed amount regularly.

Let’s dive into the data 🧵👇

In recent years, many Bitcoiners have recommended DCA:

• It’s safer for beginners
• It avoids bad market timing
• It supposedly performs better long-term

It’s time to test those assumptions!

We analyzed every possible DCA & Lump Sum investment from Jan 2016 to May 2025 (4.7M+ portfolios per strategy).

Weekly/monthly DCA with a minimum holding period of one year.

No cherry-picked dates. Just raw performance across all timelines & paths.

As you can see, lump sum investing significantly outperforms DCA (it wins in 82.5% of cases), especially over long time horizons.

But it comes with much higher volatility.

DCA only beats Lump Sum ~17.5% of the time.

It shines near market peaks followed by drops, but those moments are rare across the period analyzed.

Still, DCA smooths the ride and might help you sleep better 😎

Sharpe ratios show that both strategies offer similar risk-adjusted returns:

• Lump Sum suits those confident in Bitcoin and unfazed by volatility

• DCA works better for those seeking stability — especially newcomers

But there’s a hidden cost with on-chain DCA: each recurring buy creates a new UTXO.

Over time, they pile up and must be consolidated — which gets expensive if fees spike.

We modeled this for a $10 weekly DCA and found consolidation fees can eat up a big chunk of your gains.

With $100 weekly DCA, it’s a different story:

• Bigger UTXOs
• Lower consolidation impact
• Less drag on long-term returns

When stacking sats, hoping for low fees in the future is wishful thinking.

If you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term adoption, blockspace demand — and fees — will most likely rise.

That’s why low-value on-chain DCA doesn’t make sense!

If you plan to set up a DCA, we strongly advise against doing it on-chain — unless each buy is at least $100.

That’s why at Bull Bitcoin, we built a suite of tools to help you set up your DCA without exposing yourself to unnecessary fee pressure in the future.

Using the Bull Bitcoin wallet, you can DCA over Liquid, where fees are negligible, then swap to on-chain once you’ve reached a meaningful amount.

Alternatively, you can DCA over Lightning and move funds on-chain later — via a swap service or by closing a channel.

In conclusion, DCA is useful strategy when you have recurring cash flow but no large upfront capital

But if you think Bitcoin will replace fiat & demonetize other assets, embracing volatility may be the smartest way to seize this generational opportunity!

Want to go deeper?

Read @theomogenet in depth analysis on our blog 👇

bullbitcoin.com/blog/smash-buy…

@theomogenet If you found this thread helpful, consider liking and sharing it with others Bitcoiners 👇

https://x.com/BullBitcoin_/status/1938217329931743545