1. The prevailing discourse surrounding mitigating against SARS-CoV-2 infection is rife with false dichotomies. At a societal level, the most obvious of these is the notion that mitigation measures stand in opposition to economic growth, when, in fact, the opposite is true:
2. Mitigation measures - specifically widespread air filtration or purification - would increase economic growth, by virtue of reducing ill health in the workforce (implementing widespread passive mitigations would also increase operational resilience to future pandemics).
3. Likewise, at a personal level, the prevailing false dichotomy is that mitigating against infection is incompatible with human flourishing. This is also not the case, on two levels:
4. First, getting infected with SARS-CoV-2 as few times as possible is a net positive for increasing lifespan and healthspan, both key elements - obviously - of increasing human flourishing (it astounds me this is not discussed more in the longevity community).
5. Second, the prevailing idea that personally mitigating against infection is incompatible with human connection is also false. This false dichotomy is a slippery one, because it tacitly and narrowly defines human connection as 'eating and drinking in indoor public spaces'.
6. Human connection is so much more than that (a fact I discovered when I quit drinking in 2007). Speaking personally, I have never been more connected with such a diverse group of wonderful human beings than I am now.
7. Another prevailing false dichotomy is centred around absolutism / all-or-nothing thinking. That is to say, conceptualising mitigations as either present or not, rather than recognising that mitigations exist on a spectrum of risk. Risk cannot be reduced to zero.
8. Communicating in a nuanced fashion - difficult in today's political environment - is, in my opinion, key to dismantling all of these false dichotomies regarding mitigations.
/end
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1. There have been some exceptional comments on this thread, and as a result I'm going to recount a personal experience from 2020 that explains why I come down much harder on the side of incompetence rather than conspiracy.
2. When the UK 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme was launched in 2020, I told every single person I knew not to take advantage of it. It's important to remember two points here: that this was before the availability of vaccines and that everyone I told knew and trusted my expertise.
3. Only two people I knew didn't take advantage of the scheme (and one of those people still hasn't had Covid). Everyone else basically said something along the lines of, 'I know you're right, but I'm willing to take the risk to have a good night out'.
1. With a new wave of Covid-19 incoming, and remembering my recent comments on the sustainability of risk mitigation, my current protocols are:
Vaccination every six months.
Masking in all shared indoor public spaces.
No masking outside.
2. NAAT testing for all guests (I use PlusLife). If NAAT testing is negative and no-one has symptoms, masks are removed.
I have a small group of friends who take the same precautions as I do; for this group, NAAT testing is not required. I trust them and they trust me.
3. If I need to see a doctor / dentist, or attend a screening procedure, I will attend whether the healthcare staff are masking or not. If I have to take my own mask off for an examination or procedure, I do so. I am all too aware that Covid is not the only risk to my health.
1. This adds weight to a point I've been making for years, namely, that the important differential at the population level between now and the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 is the considerably higher percentage of the global population who are immunocompromised.
2. People who were immunocompromised as a result of primary immunodeficiencies didn't live long in 1918, because antibiotic therapy didn't exist. Likewise, medication that causes immunosuppression didn't exist either.
3. Additionally, HIV / AIDS didn't exist in 1918. All of these factors explain why there are vastly more immunocompromised people now compared to then. As such, the global immune landscape is much more conducive to viral mutation in this pandemic than it was in 1918 - 1920.
1. Perhaps the most damaging blowback from the response to Covid-19 in 2020 and 2021 is the mainstreaming of a public health ideology that is rooted in a dangerous combination of survivorship bias, nostalgia, and the naturalistic fallacy.
2. As a disease, Covid-19 elicits this widespread reaction because of what I refer to as its 'stretchiness' - the fact that it can cause disease on such a broad spectrum of severity, from asymptomatic infection to death and everything in between.
3. The assumption that one person's experience of Covid is representative of everyone's (barring the nebulous 'vulnerable') is the primary psychological driver of this. Although we should resist anthropomorphising a virus, this serves SARS-CoV-2 very well.
1. To understand the navigation of an environment in which multiple and competing risks exist, a thought experiment - grounded in my own life - is useful. I am a recovered alcoholic, and my sobriety is the single most important element of my life.
2. If a genie was to appear before me and offer me lifelong and complete immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection if I drank a single alcoholic drink, I would immediately refuse; the risk of jeopardising my sobriety vastly outweighs the risk of Covid-19.
3. Likewise, if I felt at risk of picking up the bottle again as a result of the extensive precautions I take to avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2, I would reduce or drop those precautions in a heartbeat. A heartbeat.
1. Masks are tools used to mitigate the risk of infection by airborne pathogens, including, of course, SARS-CoV-2. The politicisation and the consequent symbolisation of masking has, overall, reduced their use. This is true whether you are anti or pro masking.
2. Increasing the symbolisation of masking is a guaranteed way to reduce their use even further. This is why I am adamant that my use of masks is purely for risk reduction. I make no statement by masking; I simply have no desire to get infected.
3. In addition, as I have often stated, the risk of infection by SARS-CoV-2 is one risk amongst many. There are situations in which removing one's mask is the correct risk / benefit decision to make. These are easy decisions to make when one accepts that masks are tools.