Thread by @Trillion0x

Key dates and times to watch this week:
These events could drive Bitcoin, steady over $108K, as markets brace for macro shifts amid global tensions.

Tuesday, July 1, at 9:30 A.M. ET
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the ECB forum,

Wednesday, July 2, at 10:00 A.M. ET
May JOLTS Job Openings

Thursday, July 3, at 8:30 A.M. ET.
June nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate

Friday, July 4 - US Independence Day, markets closed.

Tariff negotiation deadlines on July 8-9 loom large.

1/ $BTC traded up 1% to $108,423, and $ETH rose 2.8% to $2,499, recovering from Iran-Israel conflict losses after a tentative ceasefire.

Global risks—like escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and potential Middle East flare-ups—could jolt markets, with Bitcoin often reacting to geopolitical uncertainty.

2/ Powell’s ECB forum remarks on Tuesday, July 1, at 9:30 A.M. ET, alongside UK, South Korea, and Japan central bank governors, are pivotal. His recent pushback on rate cuts clashes with President Trump’s claim that rates are “artificially high.” Markets will parse his words for hints on policy amid tariff-driven inflation fears.

3/ On Wednesday, July 2, at 10:00 A.M. ET, the May JOLTS report drops, followed by Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate at 8:30 A.M. ET. Recent data showed 139,000 jobs added in May, slightly above expectations. Weak numbers could signal rate cuts, boosting crypto.

4/ Tariff talks, with a July 8-9 deadline, are critical as Trump’s proposed import taxes could spike inflation. The “pause” on tariffs ends July 9, and outcomes will shape markets. A weaker U.S. dollar, often tied to tariff uncertainty, has historically lifted Bitcoin, as seen in Q1 2025.

5/ “Crypto fundamentals are at their strongest, driven by policy tailwinds and adoption,” says Peter Chung of Presto Research. But Vincent Liu of Kronos Research warns a macro shift could “reset the board.” With the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index at 66, sentiment is high but vulnerable.

6/ Other news to watch: U.S. markets close July 4 for Independence Day, potentially thinning liquidity, and ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions could amplify volatility. Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $2.3B in June, signaling strong institutional interest, but a global risk-off event could test conviction.

Stay vigilant, track these events, and manage risk. Follow @Trillion0x for more crypto and market updates. Here’s a turtle, his name is Sam.

A lot of info this week, here’s the full thread 🧵👇
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