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Karim Franceschi Profile picture
@karimfranceschi
Jul 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
BREAKING: Trump quietly removed U.S. sanctions on two notorious Syrian warlords, Abu Amsha (Suleiman Shah Brigade) & Sayf Abu Bakr (Hamza Division) accused of abduction, torture & rape, disproportionately targeting Kurds. No announcement. No transparency. Just gone. 🧵 Image
1/ Their crimes were detailed in Aug 2023 via an OFAC press release, citing serious human rights abuses in Afrin: kidnappings, sexual violence, ransom extortion of Kurds and Arabs. These men were sanctioned under E.O. 13894. 🔗home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
2/ As if that wasn't enough, they were also implicated in the Syria’s coast massacre. The EU council specifically sanctioned both Abu AMSHA & Sayf ABU BAKR for playing a central role between March 7–9, 2025, when nearly 1,500 Alawite civilians were massacred. 🔗eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
3/ The EU limited sanctions to those two, but Reuters traced a chain of command leading back to Damascus—implicating Syria’s new leadership under Ahmed al‑Sharaa (aka Jolani), self appointed president of Syria, endorsed by the Global West. Many militia commanders were promoted shortly after the killings.
🔗 reuters.com/investigations…
4/ 📜 U.S. sanctions: before vs. after

– ✅ 08/17/2023: Abu Amsha & Sayf Abu Bakr appear on OFAC’s SDN list for human rights abuses
🔗 ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions…
– ❌ 06/30/2025: Their names are gone—silently removed
🔗 ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions…

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More from @karimfranceschi

Karim Franceschi Profile picture
Jun 27
1/ Thread🧵
Day 3 since the ceasefire in the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran. Putin says the war is over. Trump calls it a “victory for everyone.” While interceptors are restocked, launchers repositioned, and satellites realigned. Is this peace, or operational pause? Image
2/ Russia’s tone has shifted from “favoring a ceasefire” to skepticism about its longevity. Putin at the Minsk forum played a diplomatic middle ground hoping the Iran–Israel fighting could “be considered a thing of the past". But, no defence pact, and no S400.
3/ Israel goes quiet, repositioning assets.
U.S. officials warn of “tactical overreach.” The Iron Dome’s Tamir stocks were reportedly strained.
Read 16 tweets
Karim Franceschi Profile picture
Jun 22
1/ They’ll tell you this is just ISIS. That it’s ISIS alone.
That the Syrian Interim Government. Blessed by Trump himself and led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has been fighting ISIS since taking over Damascus in November. Image
2/ And that might be technically true. Yes, Jolani split from ISIS back in 2013. He led Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. But what they never tell you, what they deliberately omit every single time, is this:

The split was political, never ideological.Image
3/ Jolani never renounced the ideology that underpins ISIS. He never condemned the Yazidi genocide, the slave markets where women, often after watching their husbands execute, were sold like cattle, simply for belonging to the “wrong” faith.

Not once.
Read 15 tweets
Karim Franceschi Profile picture
Jun 12
🧵A WAR Simulation: IRAN vs. US, ISRAEL

No, this isn’t your favorite X space or another “D.C. Thinkfluencer” hot take. We’re talking peer-reviewed wargames, defense PhDs, and classified scenarios the Twitter mob can’t even pronounce.

Ready for a reality check? ↓ Image
1/ In 2002, the U.S. spent $250 million running the “Millennium Challenge” war game—a simulated war in the Persian Gulf. The OPFOR, led by Marine Gen. Paul Van Riper, tossed out Pentagon playbooks: no radios, no satellites. Orders went by motorcycle courier and mosque loudspeakers.Image
2/ Within 24 hours, one U.S. carrier, 10 cruisers, and 20,000 troops “sank.” The Red Team’s small-boat swarms, suicide attacks, and decoy civilian planes shattered U.S. defenses. It was such a rout that the brass reset the game to force a U.S. win. As Van Riper put it: “They rigged it.”Image
Read 14 tweets
Karim Franceschi Profile picture
May 29
🧵Everything You Know About Sykes-Picot Is Wrong

"The Middle East was carved up by the Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916."

We’ve all heard it. But what if that's just a convenient myth? Citing historian Ayşe Hür (@HurAyse) a deep dive in the most misunderstood map in modern history.Image
1/
First, what was the Sykes-Picot Agreement?
A secret deal in 1916 between Britain & France (with Russia's blessing) to carve up Ottoman lands into spheres of influence—not to draw state borders. Image
2/
 This agreement didn’t create modern countries.
It divided control zones like this:
🇬🇧 Britain: Iraq, Jordan, southern Palestine
🇫🇷 France: Syria, Lebanon
Some regions like Mosul & Kurdistan were hotly debated.
Still, no final borders were set. Image
Read 17 tweets
Karim Franceschi Profile picture
May 27
🧵Part 2: From Thesis to Warfare

🎓 1999: Thesis
🕵️‍♂️ 2010–2023: Execution

As a cadet Fidan discussed his thesis as a theoretical vision, as a MIT chief during the Syrian CW, he put it into practice-- building a bloody transnational instrument of hegemony. ⬇️ Image
2/ In his thesis, Fidan praises the CIA for mastering covert empire-building; citing regime change, propaganda, and economic sabotage as successes worth copying.

In the same breath he accuses Syria, Greece and Iraq of using the PKK in their own covert actions. Image
3/ A decade later, Fidan’s in charge of MIT.
And what does he do?
Exactly what he outlined: Image
Read 9 tweets
Karim Franceschi Profile picture
May 27
🧵1/ I managed to get my hands on Hakan Fidan’s 1999 master’s thesis. Erdoğan’s projected successor.

He laid out his strategic doctrine long before his meteoric rise. A roadmap for a new Turkish empire built through intelligence, surveillance, and covert operations. ⬇️ Image
2/ The thesis, titled "Intelligence and Foreign Policy: A Comparison of British, American and Turkish Intelligence Systems", was submitted at Bilkent University. Written in English, it’s shockingly candid about Turkey’s strategic ambitions after the Cold War. Image
3/ At the time, Turkey's intelligence was mostly domestic, reactive, and reliant on NATO. Fidan argued this was outdated. The Cold War had ended. Opportunities had emerged: weaker neighbors, a disintegrated USSR, open markets. Image
Read 10 tweets

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