In the final hour of the House's bill negotiations, far-right conservatives secured a deal with the President that every clean energy company and advocate should know about.
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The final bill allows solar and wind project developers to qualify for the full tax credits if they start construction within the next year.
Developers can "safe-harbor" by spending 5% of a project's cost.
Those of you who have been following along closely know all that.
But here's the problem. The executive branch still has so much control over clean energy projects around the country and the implementation of the tax credits.
And in the final hour, Trump promised to effectively harass solar and wind developers and put them through hell...
.. over the next 3 years to assuage far-right conservatives concerns about the final bill.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told CNBC this morning that Trump promised to make it much harder to permit solar and wind projects—something he's already done a lot of.
He also suggested strict enforcement of the "safe-harbor" rules. Under a normal administration, that's fine. Developers should follow the rule of the law.
But this administration has shown that it doesn't care about the rule of law.
This could have both direct and indirect impacts.
- Federal agencies could drag their feet issuing permits, making developers miss the 12 month deadline to start construction.
- They could make examples out of silly mistakes, punishing people for building things in this country because they filled out the wrong box in a form.
- They could send threatening letters to developers and use the bully pulpit to create a chilling effect on development.
A lawyer that I spoke with last week made a point that I hadn't considered regarding all these rules.
It's not just about getting developers comfortable with the risks of starting construction and hoping they get their tax credits in 2+ years.
It's also about getting lenders, insurers, etc. comfortable.
Without that, good projects could die.
This is all incredibly depressing and frustrating on a day that saw one of the most damaging pieces of federal policy in history pass the House.
I wish I could leave you all with something more optimistic, but frankly I'm exhausted.
So for now I just want to get this out there while people are talking about the bill in hopes that others with more legal skills than me can do something productive with it.
More from Politico who reported this earlier today here:
The US will need ~450 GW of new electricity generation capacity by 2030 to meet rising demand from data centers, reshoring, etc.
And the Senate is about to vote on a bill that could wipe out ~500 GW of potential energy generation capacity.
The latest Senate bill would phase out the investment and production tax credits (ITC and PTC) for any project that is placed in service after December 31, 2027.
So I analyzed how many projects would be at risk.
2,332 solar and wind projects with a combined capacity of 547 GW are expected to come online in 2027 or later, according to our project tracker at Cleanview.
The vast majority of these projects would be at risk of cancellation if the current Senate bill passes.
Electricity prices are soaring around the country due to the current heat wave—everywhere but Texas.
And this map explains why.
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In the last year, Texas has added 87 new power generation facilities to its electric grid with a combined capacity of 13.5 GW, according to our project tracker at Cleanview.
A staggering 95% of that capacity has come from new solar, wind, and battery storage projects.
As in any market, the price of electricity depends on both supply and demand. Flood the market with new supply and you get cheaper prices.
Yesterday, wholesale electricity prices peaked around $75 / MWh in Texas.
While the scale of clean energy’s growth in 2024 was remarkable, the fact that clean capacity grew isn't all that surprising.
What was shocking to me, however, was just how much of the new power capacity that came online in 2024 was clean.
95% of new capacity was carbon-free.
In 2024, the star of the clean energy show was without a doubt solar energy.
The U.S. added 32.1 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity in 2024. Annual solar capacity additions rose by 65% in 2024 compared to 2023 when the country added 19.5 GW.
Take Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, for example.
The county has 137,123 housing units.
But just 941 of those units—less than 0.7%—have flood insurance through the NFIP, the federal insurance program that issues 97% of the country’s flood insurance plans.
A recent report found that 16,306 properties located in Buncombe County were at risk of flooding in a 1-in-100 year storm.