Thread by @laurimyllyvirta

Jaw-dropping: while most everyone has been projecting a slowdown in China's wind&solar deployment, the State Grid Energy Research Institute expects 380 GW solar and 140 GW wind added to the grid this year.

It's been clear that clean (and dirty) power capacity additions numbers would be buoyed by the end of the five-year plan period, when a lot of projects race to complete. But I have not seen anyone predict anything this big.

These clean capacity additions mean around 850 TWh/year of clean power generation added to the grid while the State Grid also projects demand to grow 400-640 TWh (4.0-6.5%).

So this clean energy growth should push power sector emissions down this year and well into next year.

And this being the State Grid's research arm, they should have a good handle of what's coming through the pipeline as they're the ones who need to connect all of that capacity.

As recently as late April, China Electricity Council was predicting 210 GW solar and 110 GW wind - already a massive number for wind.

On the dirty side, the State Grid predicts 127 GW of thermal power added. Some of this will be gas but the majority, probably 90-100 GW is coal. So coal power additions are also picking up sharply.

The key point remains that as long as clean power generation keeps growing faster than electricity demand, increases in coal and gas fired capacity will result in falling utilization, not increased emissions.

Source for the State Grid Energy Research Institute projections:
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nENo5gH7BK4z…

And China Electricity Council: cctd.com.cn/show-19-249437…