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Dilan Esper Profile picture
@dilanesper
Jul 5, 2025 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
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Prediction: there will not be an autocratic takeover of the American state in the next 3 years, and when it doesn't happen the academics like Skocpol who predicted it will face no loss of standing in elite discourse, just like foreign policy pundits who supported the Iraq War.
There's a whole Cry Wolf Caucus in academia who are constantly telling us we meet, e.g., 16 of the 17 signs of Hitler taking over. In an ideal society this sort of thing-- which is CLEARLY politically motivated and careerist-- would cost people credibility when it doesn't happen.
At any rate we have very strong institutions against any sort of Hitler-style takeover. There's a lot of stuff the Trump Administration is doing that I think is very bad, including, for instance, the Medicaid cuts he just signed or the immigration policies.
But American democracy will survive. There will be free elections in 2026 and 2028 and most likely the Republicans will not do well in them.
And while President Trump will have a lot of power to do damage in the area of immigration, Presidents have always had lots of power over immigration (Joe Biden did too) and it is inaccurate to label that an autocratic takeover and destruction of federalism.

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More from @dilanesper

Dilan Esper Profile picture
Mar 1
General thoughts:

1. The people who support these sorts of actions are sick of hearing about how they violate international law, but they do. No matter how bad a government is, other states aren't supposed to just attack and overthrow the government.
2. Further, there's a REASON for that international law principle. If nobody is constrained from doing this, you'll almost certainly see more warfare in the long term, because there are all sorts of grievances among nation states.
3. This is more speculative, but I also think people who like this form of warfare underrate the revolution in remote warfare that is happening right now. Drones and electronic surveillance make decapitation strikes potentially more available, and not just to the US and Israel.
Read 21 tweets
Dilan Esper Profile picture
Feb 23
SCOTUS nerd material: Gorsuch (cheered on online by the Right) ID's 4 opinions where he says liberals' positions were inconsistent with the position they took on tariffs-- greenhouse gases, vaccine mandates, student loans, and eviction moratoria.

He's wrong on 3 and right on 1.
The greenhouse gas, vaccine mandate, and student loan cases all involved statutory language that really did seem to authorize what the government was doing. So unless you thought the major questions doctrine should exist, the government should have won.
And of course, the liberals don't think the major questions doctrine should exist.
Read 21 tweets
Dilan Esper Profile picture
Feb 11
Let's continue our series on legal arguments that the public doesn't understand but are justifiable. Today we cover "substantive due process", the legal bogeyman that the Right blames for abortion and the Left blames for the Lochner era. It sounds terrible. But is it?
For those who don't know, the 5th and 14th Amendment basically provide that no governmental entity in America can deprive any person of life, liberty, or property without due process of law. "Due process" is not further defined.
So what is "due process"? Well, there's a very strong consensus (Justice Thomas might disagree with this, but nobody else really does) that it includes fundamentally fair PROCEDURES. I'll give a non-controversial example-- attachment laws.
Read 29 tweets
Dilan Esper Profile picture
Feb 9
I have decided to do an occasional series explaining legal doctrines I think the public does not understand and unfairly criticize.

So let's talk about corporate personhood and Citizens United!
Corporate personhood drives a lot of normies crazy. How can corporations be persons? It sounds totally contrary to common sense. And Citizens United is blamed by campaign finance reformers and a lot of folks on the Left for all rich people's influence on politics.
So let's take this on. First, corporate personhood. Many rights in the bill of rights, and in many other laws, are conferred on either "persons" (such as due process) or the "people" (such as the protections against searches and seizures). So why are corporations "persons"?
Read 29 tweets
Dilan Esper Profile picture
Feb 8
I have been thinking about the policy and politics of immigration a lot lately. And I think both parties are hemmed in by some really bad tendencies.

On the Right, it's performative cruelty.
On the Left, it's serving the Groups.

I will try and sketch out a third way here.
First, what's everyone doing wrong right now? Well, on the Right, the problem is very obvious. Too many right wingers have a cruel streak when it comes to immigration. They liked the ICE tactics and would have just as soon they continued unabated even after the two shootings.
They liked family separation and kids in cages in the first Trump term. And more philosophically, they like speaking of immigrants in cruel terms. All the racist stuff about poisoning America of course, but also portraying every undocumented person as a hardened "criminal".
Read 27 tweets
Dilan Esper Profile picture
Feb 6
Helen Andrews is indicative of something I am very worried about.

There's no significant constituency of what I would call "hard racists" (i.e., Klan types, people who want to restore Jim Crow) in the US. But the intellectual Right is incubating a "softer" form of racism.
What are the features of this "softer" form of open racism?

1. Massive racial generalizations and stereotyping.
2. Extensive arguments about culture and merit with whites just happening to always come out on top.
3. Unfounded claims about immigrant groups "destroying" America.
4. Attempts to dismantle taboos about claiming certain racial and ethnic groups (which always seem to turn out to be white) are superior and that science backs those claims up.

5. Advocacy of racist policies like profiling
Read 21 tweets

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