Brendan Kelley Profile picture
Jul 9 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Based on record-distance Molniya drone strikes from 14 April on the village of Vysoke, the recently-rotated 337th VDV regiment of the 104th VDV division could be responsible for today’s murder of a 14 month-old child, Dmytro, in Pravydne, Kherson.

I’ll explain in a short thread.
In the Kherson direction, Molniya’s are exclusively employed by VDV units and Naval Infantry. I personally believe the common denominator is the air assault component of both VDV regiments and the air assault battalions included in each Naval Infantry brigade. 📸 @battle_order Image
In an @army_tv_ua interview last week, it was reported by spokesman of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army Serhii Bratchuk that the 337th of 104th had rotated into the Kinburn Spit, replacing the much depleted Don Cossack Brigade.

youtube.com/live/L99aziQKk…
Pravydne lies some 30km from the Russian occupied bank and is rarely attacked according to daily reports from Kherson ODA & Police.

FPVs with fiber-optics could be responsible in theory, but there’s no evidence to support their use here. But there’s plenty for Molniya use. Image
In the Dnipro Delta, the 80th and 61st Naval Infantry Brigades roughly split the plains west-southwest of Kherson in half.

80th operates from Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast to about Tomyna Balka, while 61st covers up to Dniprovske, where they overlap with the FPV group “Delta”. Image
IMHO it’s not the Naval Infantry Brigades because although they have Molniya, they have yet to demonstrate long-range strikes, while 104th has demonstrated it in Beryslav Raion before rotating.

How the 61st uses Molniya’s as min-bunker-busters from March: open.substack.com/pub/brendankel…
In those mid-April Molniya strikes on Vysoke, Beryslav Raion, we saw a 25 y/o mom and her 7 y/o son targeted and wounded by the 104th VDV.

So there’s another potential connection here: a potential MO of drone striking kids.

Wrote about that here in May: open.substack.com/pub/brendankel…Image
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Conclusions:

1. The platform was likely Molniya given the range, units in AO, and prior geolocations.

2. The perpetrators were likely the 337th (104th) given they are the sole unit in AO who has demonstrated both use of the platform at range & prior targeting of children.
Platform confirmed by Kherson ODA as Molniya-1, according to Zarina:

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More from @kelley7622

May 20
Kherson Weekly Special

In this edition, I unmask the suspected war criminal & Russian drone pilot, Ernest Spartakovich Strupinskiy, aka “SUETA,” formerly from the infamous KHABR Group and I begin the work of investigating the toll of his crimes with KHABR. #HumanSafari Image
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Let’s dive into SUETA's personal background to get a fuller picture of who exactly this war criminal is, and then we will review his connection to the KHABR Group, accusations of fraud against him by his former comrades, and the brand new unit he is serving in now. Image
Name: Ernest Spartakovich Strupinskiy

DOB: 12 September 1998 (26 years old)

Hometown: Maikop, Adygea Republic, Russian Federation Image
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Read 25 tweets
Feb 16
Kherson Weekly: 08-14 Feb

This week's post is a bit different.

As an American, I am outraged by the gutting of USAID, as I know that #USAIDsaves. So I aggregated 50 USAID programs/deliveries/consultations from the Kherson Admin during the #HumanSafari to show the true impact. Image
#USAIDsaves

Between June and the slashing of USAID's staff this year, during one of the darkest times in Kherson's history, USAID's vital support allowed residents to repair damaged homes, restore the power grid, restore drinking water access and irrigation systems for farmers. Image
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#USAIDsaves

USAID's programs like Strengthening Public Trust, Energy Security, and Safe & Warm provided vital support with generators, stoves, wood briquettes, and restored heating systems damaged by Russian attacks on infrastructure. Image
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 29, 2024
Kherson Weekly

Published yesterday, this edition has a video & photo of the week, a compilation of geolocated footage from the area, a collection of stories regarding evacuations, and data from the National Police.
#HumanSafari
Overview and link to full report at end⏬ Image
Video of the Week

The 208th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade "Kherson" shot a Russian missile out of the sky in a video shared on Christmas Morning by the Ukrainian Air Force.

Source: t.me/kpszsu/25655
Photo of the Week

In Tomaryne, Beryslav Raion, Kherson Police rescued & evacuated 73-year-old Nadiya, who was enduring the winter elements alone, living without heat, electricity, and water due to Russian shelling on her village this last week.

Source: t.me/khersonpolice/…Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 26, 2024
1/In my latest for @tochnyi, I provide crucial updates on data, contextualize that data within recent events, and delve into the history of the units & individuals who perpetrate these drone attacks against civilians.
Data: @AndrewPerpetua
🧵tochnyi.info/2024/09/preyin…
2/Data Updates:
266 total casualties since June 21. No change to mortality. Some in age (increase b/w 40-60).
1st week of Sept. was quiet, but saw deadly strikes, which killed an Oncologist & injured his wife. Infrastructure objects & vehicles were popular targets in that week. Image
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3/Why the Sudden Drop Off?
Soulless Aviation (aka Moses) went to Kursk to aid in preparations for what is the now-floundering Russian Counteroffensive in Kursk. Left on August 28th maybe. Posted arrival in Kursk on Sept. 8th.
Source: t.me/gefestwar/3191Image
Read 14 tweets
Sep 17, 2024
1/ Two weeks ago, Russians began targeting the funeral parlor outside Antonivka's cemetery. "Signal," a source on the ground, said that it could be targeting those picking up headstones, or rather it presents an easy stationary training target for a drone pilot's grenade drop.
🧵
2/ This location is the funeral parlor for the larger cemetery in Antonivka. Many deceased military members are buried there, in addition to civilians that have recently died. While posting these strikes, Russian also posted the following video.
Source: t.me/osvedomitell_a…



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3/The caption translated:
"...now you can't just get there unless you're in a procession. Well, we see the result of the work of the RF Armed Forces and it will be the same with everyone who came to our land. What to do with these "defenders" later? The answer is obvious."
Read 7 tweets
Aug 26, 2024
Using @AndrewPerpetua's data, I compiled statistics on drone attacks against civilians in three neighborhoods of Kherson: Antonivka, Kindiyka, and the Dniprovskyi district in the east of the city. I wrote an article for my free Substack about it. Some thoughts and data below.
🧵
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2/Starting in late-May, we began mapping reports in the suburbs of Kherson of drones harassing and attacking civilians. One such incident from May 26th was shared by milblogger Kot Dobrokhod. A middle-aged man is stalked by a quadcopter drone.
Source: t.me/KOT_DOBROHOD/1…
3/It wasn't until late-June & July that the attacks began to arise in the daily reports from sources like the Kherson Police & Kherson Oblast Prosecutor's Office. From our data, Antonivka & Kindiyka saw no drone-related casualties in the last week of June. July was different.
Read 12 tweets

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