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Jul 11, 2025 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
🇷🇺Summer Offensive
Today’s focus is the southern front, where Russian activity has surged over the past two months.
Currently, five Combined Arms Armies and one VDV Division are carrying out offensive operations as part of the 2025 summer campaign.
🧵 Image
Central Zaporizhzhia saw advances toward Kam'yans'ke by two Air Assault Regiments from the 7th VDV Division, supported by infantry from multiple regiments of the 19th Division. Meanwhile, the 503rd Regiment was unsuccessful assaulting out of Nesterianka. Image
Fighting around Robotyne remains low to moderate in intensity, as elements of the 42nd Division push toward Novodanylivka and try to secure positions in Mala Tokmachka. The 42nd likely holds the largest reserve force in the south, with 3(+2) regiments currently uncommitted. Image
Further east, the Hulyaipole Front had been largely static for three years until the 38th Brigade—and possibly the 64th—were committed, launching assaults into Malynivka.
The 1198th Regiment remains in reserve. Image
In the Vremivka area, the 127th Division continues advancing toward the Donetsk Oblast border, recently reinforced by the 69th Covering Brigade, which is now assaulting Vil'ne Pole. Image
After breakthroughs near Odradne and Komar, the 5th, 29th, and 36th Armies continue their rapid westward advance. Near Tolstoi, the 36th Brigade—backed by the 430th MRR and assault battalions—is pushing northwest. Image
Meanwhile, the 5th Tank Brigade, 336th Marines, and 37th MRB are advancing toward Voskresenka, as the 57th and 60th Brigades press toward Maliivka on the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
Key takeaways:
As part of Russia’s summer offensive, fighting on the southern front is intense in southern Donetsk and western Zaporizhzhia, while the rest of Zaporizhzhia is experiencing low to moderate levels of combat.
Apart from various volunteer formations, Russia has committed a significant number of additional units—indicating the southern offensive could be near-peak intensity, for now.

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More from @WarUnitObserver

May 16
What's happening on the northern border of 🇺🇦Ukraine?

We know this dilemma has likely kept you all awake at night lately, so this short thread will cover recent events in this often-forgotten part of the frontline.

🇷🇺Russian cross-border actions have particularly intensified in three areas in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.

Russian forces are carrying out a deliberate small-scale "infiltration" campaign in these sections of the border, labeled "buffer zones" by their 🇷🇺domestic media and milbloggers.Image
The western-most infiltration is near Sopych, in Sumy oblast: the first indicators of 🇷🇺Russian activation here appeared in early-March, later confronted by elements of the 🇺🇦210th Assault Regiment in cooperation with the 🇺🇦2nd Battalion, 33rd Assault Regiment.

The 🇷🇺Russian units involved are not fully clear at the moment.

While positional fighting and strikes have continued since, the estimated area of Russian control here has not expanded.Image
Shifting east, past the Sumy "bulge", is a larger infiltration area spanning all the way from Myropils’ke to Hrabovske - approximately 40 kilometers in a straight line.

Initial 🇷🇺Russian movement into Hrabovske began in late December, with invading forces kidnapping and relocating all civilians that remained in the village.
The contested area expanded northwards in March and April, to include Pokrovka and Novodmytrivka.

The 🇺🇦Ukrainian response, coordinated by the 14th Army Corps, initially consisted of light Territorial Defence and Border Guards units.
More recently, the 🇺🇦157th Mechanized Brigade and elements of the 🇺🇦120th Recon Regiment joined the fight near Pokrovka and Hrabovske respectively.Image
Read 4 tweets
May 7
Our friends from @Ukrdailyupdate and @Tochnyi just launched a huge fundraiser to provide vans for the 🇺🇦National Guard’s 13th Khartiia Brigade!

In this thread we will briefly tell Khartiia's story and describe what sets it apart from other Ukrainian formations.

Fundraiser link in the next post!⬇️Image
You can donate here:
paypal.com/donate?campaig…

To ensure total transparency and professional logistics, we are partnering with @LibertyUkraineF, which will handle the backend and 501(c)(3) status.

You can also find more details and alternative ways to donate here: libertyukraine.org/from-screens-t…
Khartiia was formed just after the start of the full-scale invasion as a volunteer unit under the 🇺🇦127th Territorial Defense Brigade, based in Kharkiv.

Agricultural businessman Vsevolod Kozhemyako provided funding and support, teaming up with (then-retired) Colonel Ihor Obolienskyi as the unit's operational commander.

In the photo below: Obolienskyi fighting near Ruska Lozova in June 2022.Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 6
🇷🇺 ORBAT – Hulyaipole
Following Ukrainian reinforcements in the area, Russian forces redeployed units from Pokrovsk to Hulyaipole, likely in an attempt to maintain offensive tempo in southern Zaporizhzhia.
Image
In particular, the Eastern Military District’s 68th Army Corps was redeployed from the Pokrovsk/Dobropillia area and transferred back to the ‘Vostok’ grouping.
They are attacking west of Hulyaipole
t.me/mod_russia/606…
t.me/mod_russia/616…
x.com/moklasen/statu… Image
Additionally, following the dismissal of Maj. Gen. Akhmedov from his command of the naval infantry grouping on the Dobropillia axis, several Russian marine units were pulled back.
The 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (MUN10103) has now reappeared in the south.
vk.com/wall-192849126…Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 20
🇺🇦Ukrainian counterattacks on the southern front - the wider perspective

Between the end of January and the beginning of February, Ukrainian forces began a series of counterattacks aimed at the south-eastern corner of the frontline - split between the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro oblasts.
This area recorded the deepest 🇷🇺Russian advances in late 2025, but the low force density generated by the infiltration tactics used seems to be an exploitable weakness.
The Russian 🇷🇺“Vostok” Grouping faces several 🇺🇦Ukrainian assault regiments along with the 🇺🇦82nd and 95th Air Assault brigades, redeployed from Pokrovsk in late January for the occasion.

Given most of this information has been published by various other sources, we set out to provide a longer perspective on the often neglected and forgotten south-eastern corner of the frontline.

[1/9]Image
On October 1st, 2024 the ruins of Vuhledar were fully occupied by 🇷🇺Russian forces.
The famous lynchpin of Ukraine’s southeastern front that had withstood the attacks of hundreds of Russian vehicles in the first two years of the war - charred husks of BMPs, BTRs and T-series tanks still populate the fields south of Vuhledar to this day - had given in.
The Ukrainian unit that led the defence of Vuhledar, the 🇺🇦72nd Mechanized Brigade, was rotated out of the area soon after the city fell for rest and recovery, after two straight years spent on the frontline.

In the same days, some 30 kilometers west, the 🇺🇦58th Motorized Brigade would leave the Velyka Novosilka front for the northern border of Kharkiv oblast.
Another “leading” Ukrainian unit, acting as headquarters for attached units in a ~20km wide sector, had now left the southern edge of Donetsk oblast.

These two rotations would spell the end of frontline stability in southern Donetsk.Image
During the last months of 2024, 🇷🇺Russian forces continued their advance and drove a deep wedge between Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka.
Units of the 🇷🇺29th Combined Arms Army, the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade in particular, managed to achieve 10-kilometer advances in a single day - relatively impressive figures in the “post-2022” positional conflict.
The 🇷🇺40th Naval Infantry and 5th Tank brigades advanced on the 36th’s left flank.

The 🇺🇦23rd Mechanized Brigade was rushed to the area, attempting to support two battlegroups based on the 48th Assault Battalion and 169th Training Center, but the eastern flank of Velyka Novosilka had essentially collapsed.

Battles would develop similarly north of Vuhledar despite higher force density on the Ukrainian side, culminating in the fall of Kurakhove by the first week of 2025.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 31
The Battle of Vovchans'k - how the destroyed town fell after almost 2 Years.

The renewed 🇷🇺Russian offensive in northern Kharkiv oblast began in May 2024.
Only at the end of 2025 did the heavily shelled border town of Vovchans'k become entirely occupied.

Most units in this area have been facing each other for a long time, with the 🇺🇦57th Motorized Brigade being in charge of the city's defense in opposition to the 🇷🇺69th Motor Rifle Division, 128th Motor Rifle Brigade, and various attached regiments.

Operational command falls under the Ukrainian 🇺🇦16th Army Corps and the Russian 🇷🇺6th Combined Arms Army.Image
In late 2025, fighting in the city’s ruins had stagnated and mostly saw small 🇷🇺 infantry elements suffering heavy attrition from 🇺🇦 drone strikes.
Russian mechanized assaults, largely conducted on MTLBs in the past, had ceased by the summer.

Interestingly, datapoints for the 🇺🇦72nd Mechanized Brigade, deployed west of the city in the late summer, became scarce in October.
While we could not entirely confirm this so far, it seems likely that the brigade rotated out for recovery or moved to another front.

The 🇺🇦1st Battalion of the 58th Motorized Brigade deployed near Synel'nykove in the 72nd Brigade’s previous sector.
Here, small territorial losses were recorded in October and November - as can be expected when replacing a brigade with (possibly) a single battalion.
The 🇷🇺82nd Motor Rifle Regiment led the charge, with predictably high casualty rates.

The 🇺🇦1st Assault Battalion “Black Swan” of the 225th Regiment deployed elements into the city itself in November and December in the size of at least two assault groups (platoon/company-echelon).
This was likely in response to advances through the urban center by the 🇷🇺1009th Regiment and 128th Brigade.

The 🇺🇦57th Motorized Brigade's manpower state can be assumed to be mediocre at best, given the entire brigade has never gone on recovery since the spring of 2024 (battalion rotations do happen regularly, however).Image
With the intensification of small scale assault actions in December, 🇷🇺Russian forces succeeded in pushing 🇺🇦Ukrainian units south of the city itself, even reaching the village of Vil'cha. It remains unclear whether they managed to consolidate these gains.

On the western flank of the salient, near Hrafs'ke, the 🇺🇦48th Reconnaissance Battalion (formerly part of the 72nd Brigade) is deployed as part of the 16th Army Corps.
Other elements include the 🇺🇦5th Battalion of the 120th TDF Brigade, along with the aforementioned battalion of the 58th Brigade.
Command and control above the battalion level in this sector is unclear at the moment, though it is possible that these units are all operating under the 🇺🇦57th Motorized Brigade.
🇷🇺Russian pressure here seems to be exclusively focused on the village of Lyman.

The eastern flank of the city has elements of the 🇺🇦113th TDF Brigade and 🇺🇦159th Mechanized Brigade (though some of its battalions are detached elsewhere in Kharkiv oblast).
The 🇷🇺127th and (possibly) 126th Motor Rifle Regiments, belonging to the 71st Division, transferred to this area from Chasiv Yar at the end of 2025 - an intensification of assaults in this direction come spring would not be surprising.Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 30, 2025
Dobropillya direction: 🇺🇦12th Azov Brigade finally joins its parent Corps on the frontline.

Following the 🇷🇺Russian breakthrough in early August, the 🇺🇦National Guards’ 1st Azov Corps deployed its headquarters in the Dobropillya direction and led the clearing of several settlements.
The 12th Azov Brigade, however, had remained in its sector south of Kostyantynivka after months of battles in Toretsk.

Earlier today, the Brigade announced that it has transferred to the Dobropillya direction, in the 1st Corps’ area of responsibility.

This means that three of the Corps’ five organic brigades are now under its operational control, facing the 🇷🇺 51st Combined Arms Army, 20th Motorized Rifle Division and the large Naval Infantry Grouping.Image
In early December, the newly formed 🇺🇦20th “Lyubart” Brigade (based on the 5th Battalion of the Azov Brigade) had joined the fight in the 1st Corps’ sector, specifically north of 14th “Chervona Kalyna” Brigade, holding the town of Rodyns’ke.

The 🇺🇦4th “Rubizh” Brigade also still operates in the 1st Corps’ sector, despite belonging to the other National Guard Corps - Khartia.

Highlighted on the map are several Russian mechanized assaults that occurred in the past month, leading to minimal gains and large losses.
For example, the attacks on December 22nd & 26th may have resulted in up to 40 pieces of equipment visually confirmed as lost.Image
The first footage from 🇺🇦Azov Brigade was released by its UAS Battalion on Christmas Eve, showing strikes around Pankivka.
Thus, it seems the Brigade may have taken charge of the area between Dorozhnje and Shakhove, while the 🇺🇦33rd Mechanized Brigade and the attached 253rd Assault Battalion are holding the Corps’ left flank.

It is worth noting that two major rotations out of this area have taken place in the last month:
- the 🇺🇦1st Assault Regiment moved to Hulyaipole, further south
- the 🇺🇦82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously leading the defense between Shakhove and Poltavka, moved north of Pokrovsk

The Azov Brigade’s relocation is likely meant to compensate for this.
The losses sustained by recent Russian mechanized assaults indicate a successful rotation.Image
Read 4 tweets

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