Thread by @NewRulesGeo

🚨🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦Debunking Rubio's False Claim of "100k Russian Dead Since 2025"

"100k Russian soldiers – dead, not injured – dead" – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s shocking claim is pure disinformation.

🧵Here’s why👇

Is there any independent evidence to support such Russian casualty figures?

No, the only source for these numbers are Ukraine and NATO governments.

This begs the obvious question: Can you trust Ukraine and NATO to provide accurate and impartial Russian casualty estimates

Here’s why you shouldn’t believe Ukrainian and NATO estimates of Russian casualties:

1) They have a political incentive to overexaggerate

2) They have track record of lying

3) It is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate the other side’s losses

It’s worth noting that even Western propaganda doesn’t buy Rubio’s bizarre Russian casualty numbers.

EX: BBC & Mediazona, claimed ~111,000 Russian deaths total since 2022—far below Rubio’s claim of 100k in six months.

Take a look at this graph. It shows the Russian-Ukrainian exchange of dead bodies overtime.

🔵—> Ukraine
🔴—> Russia

The current ratio is 22 Ukrainians for every Russian!

Obviously the fog of war make a it difficult to make accurate casualty calculations for both sides.

But if we look at the dynamics of the conflict, we have every reason to assume that the Russians are losing less men than the Ukrainians.

Fact #1: Russia has maintained ARTILLERY SUPREMACY throughout this conflict

This is openly admitted by Ukrainian and Western sources

Since World War I, artillery has been the #1 producer of battlefield casualties

Fact #2: Russia has maintained AIR SUPERIORITY throughout this conflict

This means that Russia has FAR MORE OPTIONS for striking military targets deep inside Ukraine

It also means that Russia can drop HIGH VOLUME EXPLOSIVES on Ukrainian positions

Fact #3: Ukrainian military command has track record of reckless and costly blunders

Best example is the 2023 failed counteroffensive, when Ukraine sent waves of troops and armor across minefields with little air/artillery support

See also Bakhmut, Krynky, and Kursk

Fact #4: Russian military command has track record of withdrawing from an area rather defend it at an unacceptably high cost

See Russia’s withdrawals from Kharkov and Kherson in the fall of 2022, when Russian troops pulled back to more easily defendable positions

Fact #5: Ukraine has a CRITICAL MANPOWER SHORTAGE

This is why recruitment officers are kidnapping random Ukrainian men off the streets & sending them to the front

This is why Ukraine has begun transferring pilots, air defense specialists, & engineers into infantry assault units

Fact #6: Russia doesn’t have a manpower shortage

Russia has only conducted one round of mobilization back in 2022 and Russian officials have repeatedly stated that they don’t have any plans for new rounds of mobilization

There simply isn’t any military necessity for doing so

Fact #7: Russia is gaining ground, while Ukraine is losing ground

Admittedly, there are historical precedents for the winning side in wars suffering greater causalities, but usually it’s the other way around

Especially when the advancing side has air/artillery superiority

Conclusion: Think for yourself

No credible evidence has been provided to support claim that Russia has lost more men than Ukraine

In fact, there is every reason to believe that the opposite is true