1⃣Ed Miliband is altering the rules of CfD auctions so that he can throw money at the developers. The Statutory Instrument to enable him to do this is being debated tomorrow. The Impact Assessment alongside it is sickening. (THREAD)
2⃣The SI is designed to enable a vast expansion of the renewables fleet. Since developers are getting cold feet, Miliband needs to stuff their mouths with gold. A vast capacity at high prices means a lot of money is going to be spent. Electricity consumers will foot the bill.
3⃣When looking at the impact on consumers the Impact Assessment says, in essence, "it's complicated". They say that wholesale prices will see downward pressure.
4⃣This is highly disingenuous. Wholesale prices will only see downward pressure at times when it is both very windy and sunny. Average wholesale prices may increase. Subsidies, balancing costs, and network costs definitely will, and dramatically.
5⃣Essentially DESNZ is putting a farrago of disinformation in front of Parliament.
6⃣When the Impact Assessment looks at the effect on businesses, it's just as bad. The document considers only the effect on windfarm developers. All other businesses are simply ignored.
7⃣This is a problem, because the effect on businesses is going to be catastrophic, just as it is for consumers.
8⃣Professor Gordon Hughes' paper for @netzerowatch suggests that the government's Clean Power 2030 plan will add £25 billion to bills each year. That means power at 40p/kWh as opposed to 25p today.
9⃣But those figures are based on an assumption that the prices seen in the AR6 auction will be repeated in subsequent auctions. But Miliband's SI is designed to allow much higher prices to be paid. Heaven knows how high prices might go.
🔟Make no mistake, this will be a catastrophe for UK business and UK consumers.
@TiceRichard @ClaireCoutinho @NJ_Timothy @GMB_union @GMBGarySmith @UniteSharon @RainNewtonSmith @JonGeldart @MMcTagueFSB
Speak out now!
In the FT, @pilitaclark attempts to diagnose the reasons behind increases in electricity bills. Unfortunately, she has got this badly wrong, mainly because she only looks at the wholesale price. (THREAD)
It is true that the wholesale price is the biggest component of electricity bills. Here's a breakdown of a bill...
Whether wholesale power prices are also the most variable element of power prices is somewhat moot. Yes, they soared in 2022, but apart from that, they have been rather stable, floating around the 5p/kWh level for many years.
The Climate Change Committee has launched the latest Carbon Budget today. As usual, it doesn't rise above the level of pure fantasy. (THREAD)
The Committee reckons we are going to have to increase annual spending on Net Zero stuff from around £16bn today to £40bn or more in 2029, sustaining that level of expenditure for a decade.
And if you go and look at the underlying assumptions, you can see that they are ridiculous. For example, they assume current offshore wind costs around half what it actually does.
I have uncovered new data showing that Whitehall figures on offshore windfarm output are baloney. (THREAD)
For many years, DESNZ has claimed that offshore windfarms commissioning in 2025 will deliver a lifetime average of 61% of its nameplate capacity ('a capacity factor of 61%')
It now looks as if Moray West may be the only offshore windfarm commissioned in 2025. Although it is not fully operational, it has been producing power since last year.
Time after time, I come across people saying that it’s madness that everyone in the electricity market receives the same price as the most expensive generator to run (typically a gas-fired power station). Here's why this is necessary.
(THREAD)
Consider a grid with three kinds of generator:
· offshore windfarms
· new, efficient gas-fired power stations
· old, inefficient gas-fired power stations.
All have capital and operating costs, and the gas-fired power stations have fuel costs as well.
The huge cost of paying windfarms to switch off – so-called constraint payments – hits the headlines from time to time. It’s a scandal, of course, but it’s even more scandalous than you think (THREAD).
The main grid constraint is across the Scottish border. The windfarms that are getting the big money for switching off are therefore north of the border.
Fore example, Beatrice and Moray East are both in the Moray Firth and, from 2024 onwards, they have been joined by Moray West. We’ve also just had Viking (in Shetland) and Seagreen (off Dundee) starting operations.