Thread by @christinaqi

Thread incoming: Why China will win the AI race in 8-10 years (and why that might be good for the US) 🧵

The core reason: Chinese people are willing to trade privacy for convenience. Americans are paranoid about their data being sold and will go out of their way to make sure that their data isn't being shared.

This gives China a massive domestic market advantage - imagine training AI systems on a population that's comfortable sharing data at scale. It's like having a home field advantage in the biggest stadium in the world.

My DeepMind friends think it'll be sooner than 8-10 years.

Then there's state coordination.
Look at EVs: Xiaomi, BYD, etc. dominating globally. My Roborock vacuum puts Roomba to shame. When the state aligns with market forces, things move fast.

The talent pipeline is shifting too.
Those researchers getting $100M packages? Check their last names - we've been importing research talent for years through favorable education policies. But Chinese students now prefer Japan over the US for college.
Problem: Japan lags China for startup innovation. So most are heading home after graduation.

The timing math: 2025 grad student cohort + time to mature + US companies burning cash advantage on poaching = my 8-10 year prediction window.

Plot twist: China "winning" the AI race might actually be great for the US if we stay competitive at higher-level services. Not everything is zero-sum.

Also uhh since people are racist here, my colleague who originally posted this + myself are both American. We shop at Walmart, hoard toilet paper and gas, etc. This is not a political take, just pattern recognition.