TLDR - Citi's Stablecoin + Crypto Plans from earnings:
- Citi clients want real-time multi-asset, multi-bank, x-border solution w/ compliance, accounting all solved
- Citi Looking at 4 areas: ramps (fiat <-> crypto), reserve management, own stablecoin + tokenized deposits
- Citi Token Services: will let client move assets from NY -> HK -> UK instantly w/out incremental tx costs of going fiat to digital and back. Will also provide financing and liquidity
- On a Zelle style bank consortium w/ BoA + JPM: need Genius Act for regulatory clarity
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1. Rates Lower but Higher
- Market is pricing in some serious cuts in ‘24 with a ~80% chance of rates ending sub 4%
- I’m on the less aggro side and say we end ‘24 north of 4% but sub 5%
- I’m betting inflation is sticky on the way down and the fed will have trouble cutting
2. Crypto Market Cap >$2T
- Trustless financial systems will only become more valuable (esp with lower rates)
- Global conflict, migrant flows, inflationary fiat, and fallible banking systems are all tailwinds
- Crypto market cap sits at $1.7t today and is headed higher