🔥THE ULTIMATE WAY TO VALUE BITCOIN TREASURY COMPANIES🔥
This is the P/BYD RATIO developed by Bitcoin Wizard Jesse Myers (@Croesus_BTC).
Goodbye P/E ratios and other archaic valuation methods!
If you've still value Bitcoin treasury companies by price-to-earnings, congratulations:
You've been timing the apocalypse with a sundial.
🧵Here's how to find the DEALS in the BTC treasury game👇
This is the P/BYD RATIO developed by Bitcoin Wizard Jesse Myers (@Croesus_BTC).
Goodbye P/E ratios and other archaic valuation methods!
If you've still value Bitcoin treasury companies by price-to-earnings, congratulations:
You've been timing the apocalypse with a sundial.
🧵Here's how to find the DEALS in the BTC treasury game👇
P/BYD = Price to Bitcoin Yield Delivered
Think of it like P/E for Bitcoin-native equity...
But instead of measuring how long it takes to earn your dollars back via profits, it tells you:
How long until the Bitcoin I overpaid for is delivered back to me?
Think of it like P/E for Bitcoin-native equity...
But instead of measuring how long it takes to earn your dollars back via profits, it tells you:
How long until the Bitcoin I overpaid for is delivered back to me?
Here’s the formula:
y = log(mNAV) / n*log(1+BYD)
Where:
y = years to shareholder Bitcoin parity
mNAV = Market cap / NAV (Bitcoin per share)
BYD = Bitcoin Yield Delivered via dilution
n = # of issuance periods per year
y = log(mNAV) / n*log(1+BYD)
Where:
y = years to shareholder Bitcoin parity
mNAV = Market cap / NAV (Bitcoin per share)
BYD = Bitcoin Yield Delivered via dilution
n = # of issuance periods per year
Let’s break this down with an example:
Say a company has:
mNAV = 2.0 → stock trades at 2× its BTC value per share
BYD = 20% (they increase treasury 20% via issuance this quarter)
n = 1 (one issuance per year)
y = log(2) / log(1.2) = .77 years
So despite a 2× premium, you recover the “excess BTC” in under 9 months.
Say a company has:
mNAV = 2.0 → stock trades at 2× its BTC value per share
BYD = 20% (they increase treasury 20% via issuance this quarter)
n = 1 (one issuance per year)
y = log(2) / log(1.2) = .77 years
So despite a 2× premium, you recover the “excess BTC” in under 9 months.
This is the entire breakthrough.
💥 Premiums aren’t bad if payback is fast.
💥 Dilution isn’t evil if it increases BTC per share.
💥 Compounding yield offsets overvaluation.
The market's still using fiat logic to value Bitcoin time machines.
💥 Premiums aren’t bad if payback is fast.
💥 Dilution isn’t evil if it increases BTC per share.
💥 Compounding yield offsets overvaluation.
The market's still using fiat logic to value Bitcoin time machines.
Let’s talk dynamics:
mNAV ↑ → Longer payback time (log-linear)
BYD ↑ → Shorter payback time (exponential)
n ↑ → More compounding periods = slight edge
So what really matters?
Bitcoin Yield Delivered.
It’s the throttle. Everything else is just framing.
mNAV ↑ → Longer payback time (log-linear)
BYD ↑ → Shorter payback time (exponential)
n ↑ → More compounding periods = slight edge
So what really matters?
Bitcoin Yield Delivered.
It’s the throttle. Everything else is just framing.
Let’s break down three real Bitcoin treasury companies as of mid-2025 using the P/BYD framework:
1. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy):
mNAV: 1.95 (market cap is 1.95× its net BTC value)
BYD: 19.7% Bitcoin yield delivered over the first half of 2025
P/BYD: 1.86 years
→ It takes just under 2 years for shareholders to recover the BTC premium they overpaid, assuming yield remains constant.
2. Metaplanet (3350.T):
mNAV: 3.51
BYD: 129.4% Bitcoin yield delivered in Q2 alone
P/BYD: 0.38 years
→ That’s around 4.5 months to full BTC payback, even with a premium over 3.5× NAV.
Why? Explosive BTC yield from rapid dilution.
3. Smarter Web Company:
mNAV: 5.58
BYD: 419% over the past 30-day period
P/BYD: 0.09 years
→ Less than 5 weeks to recover the entire BTC premium. It’s almost unreal, but the sustainability of such yield is the question.
The lesson?
A high NAV premium isn’t bad if the BTC yield is compounding aggressively.
And a low premium means nothing if the company isn’t delivering more Bitcoin to the balance sheet.
This is how you separate signal from noise in the Bitcoin equity markets.
1. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy):
mNAV: 1.95 (market cap is 1.95× its net BTC value)
BYD: 19.7% Bitcoin yield delivered over the first half of 2025
P/BYD: 1.86 years
→ It takes just under 2 years for shareholders to recover the BTC premium they overpaid, assuming yield remains constant.
2. Metaplanet (3350.T):
mNAV: 3.51
BYD: 129.4% Bitcoin yield delivered in Q2 alone
P/BYD: 0.38 years
→ That’s around 4.5 months to full BTC payback, even with a premium over 3.5× NAV.
Why? Explosive BTC yield from rapid dilution.
3. Smarter Web Company:
mNAV: 5.58
BYD: 419% over the past 30-day period
P/BYD: 0.09 years
→ Less than 5 weeks to recover the entire BTC premium. It’s almost unreal, but the sustainability of such yield is the question.
The lesson?
A high NAV premium isn’t bad if the BTC yield is compounding aggressively.
And a low premium means nothing if the company isn’t delivering more Bitcoin to the balance sheet.
This is how you separate signal from noise in the Bitcoin equity markets.
How can you use P/BYD?
🔹 Rank companies by capital efficiency
🔹 Screen for fast payback with acceptable premium
🔹 Build a smart-beta portfolio of “BTC payback engines”
🔹 Avoid stocks trading at high premiums without yield
It’s alpha in plain sight.
🔹 Rank companies by capital efficiency
🔹 Screen for fast payback with acceptable premium
🔹 Build a smart-beta portfolio of “BTC payback engines”
🔹 Avoid stocks trading at high premiums without yield
It’s alpha in plain sight.
Now combine it with PCV (Premium Compression Velocity):
Time-Adjusted PCV = PCV / P/BYD
This shows how fast the market is compressing premium relative to the payback time.
High PCV, low P/BYD = generational stacking vehicle.
Time-Adjusted PCV = PCV / P/BYD
This shows how fast the market is compressing premium relative to the payback time.
High PCV, low P/BYD = generational stacking vehicle.
Build a forward P/BYD curve from forecasted yield.
Flat → consistent compounding
Steep → likely slowdown
Inverted → sleeper about to re-rate violently
You're not just buying BTC exposure anymore.
You're buying time-value recovery speed.
Flat → consistent compounding
Steep → likely slowdown
Inverted → sleeper about to re-rate violently
You're not just buying BTC exposure anymore.
You're buying time-value recovery speed.
⚠️ Limitations:
P/BYD doesn’t account for BTC price risk
Doesn’t model jurisdictional friction (SEC vs Japan ≠ equal)
Yield fatigue is real. Early cycles often outperform later ones.
Use it with PCV and rolling BYD averages.
P/BYD doesn’t account for BTC price risk
Doesn’t model jurisdictional friction (SEC vs Japan ≠ equal)
Yield fatigue is real. Early cycles often outperform later ones.
Use it with PCV and rolling BYD averages.
🚨 Final takeaway:
P/BYD turns Bitcoin equity dilution into a quantified payback clock.
The market is still using P/E for time-based assets.
You now have the key to value Bitcoin-native companies like a capital assassin.
Ignore this at your own fiat peril.
P/BYD turns Bitcoin equity dilution into a quantified payback clock.
The market is still using P/E for time-based assets.
You now have the key to value Bitcoin-native companies like a capital assassin.
Ignore this at your own fiat peril.
If you'd like the tremendous value of this framework explained to you in video form, check out my YouTube video on this topic:
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