Thread by @JPLindsley

1/ 🧵"Every senior Russian officer for the rest of their life is going to be looking over their shoulder and checking under their car."

Lt. General Ben Hodges (Ret.) explains why Russia's mass is now its vulnerability—and why only Western will prevents Ukrainian victory 🧵👇

2/ General Hodges commanded US Army Europe 2014-2018 during Russia's initial invasion. Now at @cepa, he tells @CurtainSilicon a stark truth:

"If we wanted to, Russia would've been knocked out of this a couple of years ago, but we haven't demonstrated the political will" ⤵️

3/ But Ukraine has the WILL: "I think that they're going to adopt a strategy of denial long-term, kind of like the Israeli model."

"Going after Russian airfields, seaports, [Ukraine's] demonstrated they can touch every square kilometer of Russia now. So there is no safe place" ⤵️

4/ On Operation Spiderweb destroying Russia's bomber fleet: "These are aircraft that cannot be replaced anytime soon b/c they don't make 'em anymore."

"Every square km of Russia can be touched ... by some unmanned system or sabotage or special operators of HUR [mil intel]" ⤵️

5/ The psychological warfare: "How could the HUR penetrate Russia so effectively, how have they been able to get through ... do these things?"

"If that creates a lot of distrust in [Russia, which is already] loaded with distrust, that kind of chaos ... can only be helpful" ⤵️

6/ Still, Hodges thinks that Putin "believes that they're going to win until as long as he thinks the United States and Europe will not do what's necessary to help Ukraine" ⤵️

7/ And the West COULD stop this: "Add together the economies and industries, defense industries of ... the EU plus UK plus Norway plus Canada, forget the US, it dwarfs Russia"

"So why are we having a problem?" ⤵️

8/ "What we lack is not industrial capacity or potential," Hodges says.

"It's the self-confidence and the determination that this is what is the priority and civilian leaders [who] are willing to explain that to us"

Willing to explain! A key! ⤵️

9/ "If we wanted to, Russia would've been knocked out of this a couple of years ago, but we haven't demonstrated the political will to do that"

The capability exists—the will doesn't. ⤵️

10/ Side note from me:

I know why that will doesn't exist in the USA. Political associations and rightful distrust of Washington have made it hard for Americans to see the real Ukraine.

Follow me if you're interested in removing the blinders that hold back the US. ⤵️

11/ Hodges on the Russian shadow fleet: "Why can't we do things to inflict consequences such as seizing these shadow fleet vessels, guaranteed most of them are not properly insured or they have a hundred safety violations ...

"Even the EU sanctions commissioner, Mr. O'Sullivan refers to them as end of life vessels." ⤵️

12/ Hodges on Russia's war on Europe:

"All the things that Russia does in the Baltic region, for example, the espionage, I'm sorry, the sabotage, the destruction of undersea cables and pipelines, the violations of airspace ..."

"They used a weapons grade chemical agent against Russian defectors" ⤵️

13/ Watch the full interview here on Jonathan Fink's powerful, Oxford,UK-based @CurtainSilicon podcast.

'Ben Hodges: Ukraine is turning Russia's vastness against it—while the West fails to use its overwhelming economic advantage.'

Full interview: 🧵🎬.