Thread by @EventsUkraine

Why Seymour Hersh’s latest article about Ukraine is wrong 🧵

(1) Casualties. Hersh’s US official source claims 2 million Russian casualties.
Even Ukraine’s MoD claims 1 million. Zelensky in December 2024 – 200,000 KIA, 550,000 WIA. BBC/Mediazona – 100,000+ KIA.

(2) Hersh claims Zaluzhny could replace Zelensky.

In fact, Ukrainian nationalist militarists are dismissive of the general – he abandoned the war for London with 'health reasons' and his counteroffensive was idiotic

(3) Hersh for some reason thinks this week’s cabinet reshuffle is a sign of Zelensky’s weakness. In fact, the opposite

The cabinet shakeup is just a sign of Zelensky’s ever-increasing centralization. New PM, Sviridenko, is totally loyal to Zelensky-Yermak

(5) Zelensky and his righthand man Yermak have total control over the Security Services (SBU), court system and law enforcement (Oleg Tatarov), and army (Oleksandr Syrsky)

This small group is more powerful than ever, and not vulnerable as Hersh claims

(6) The only remaining opposition to Yermak is head of Zelensky’s parliamentiary fraction Arakhamia and head of the intelligence directorate Budanov.

The replacement of PM Shmyhal with Sviridenko was a loss for them and a win for Yermak
eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/spider-in-th…

(7) Meanwhile, Zelensky purged the Democrat Party-funded ‘sorosite’ NGOs this month.

Zelensky centralizes power, no backlash or even response from western governments
eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/democracy-di…

(8) This means that the west no longer has a network of controlled political forces in Ukraine. Anyway, Trump hates the Sorosites for their role in the Manafort affair.

eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/zelensky-and…

(9) The Sorosites and ex-president Poroshenko have been desperately criticizing Zelensky in the attempt to stave off their demise. But the west doesn’t care about their old clients anymore

eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/petka-the-wi…

(9) Why? Because Zelensky is a better client.

This month FT wrote about how Zelensky forced Ukrainian businessmen to give up key economic assets to US-Swedish companies

eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/contra-hersh…

(10) The only way Zelensky’s grip could actually be threatened is if the frontline really started collapsing

(11) Hersh’s source downplays Russian gains, claiming it is all just ‘farmland’.

But Ukrainians are quite worried by the dynamic of Russian territorial advances.

In 2025, 2,395km2 - the size of Luxembourg, bild writes. All of 2024 was 'only' 3,388km2

(12) Besides that, Hersh ignores the fact that Russia’s strategy is clearly attritional, spreading Ukraine’s thin forces over an ever-larger front

13) According to Ukrainian military expert Taras Chmut this month, Russia is recruiting more soldiers than it loses, while Ukraine loses more than it gains each month.
He concludes that Russia is winning
eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/democracy-di…

(14) The latest news from Ukrainian milbloggers is that superior Russian drone teams have Pokrovsk’s logistics surrounded – they compare it to when that forced Ukraine to abandon the Kursk region

(14) Tension between officers and mobilized troops is also growing. On the 16th, a mobilized soldier killed two sergeants at a training camp in the Chernihiv region

(14) The neo-nazi Azov movement has been given massive PR boost by Poroshenko+Sorosite media this year as an alternative to Zelensky. But…
eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/azov-rising

(15) It’s clear that Zelensky is also boosting the Azov movement, especially through loyal oligarch (the country’s richest) Rinat Akhmetov.

(16) Zelensky-Yermak hope to use the Azovites as a nationalist spoiler party in future elections

The Azovites are always happy to work for the powerful

(17) Meanwhile, the two wings of the Azov movement are currently engaged in a violent conflict. Probably also encouraged by Ze-Yermak.

eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/the-azov-civ…

(18) All in all, I can’t share Hersh’s pessimism about Zelensky’s prospects. The west has few instruments to replace Zelensky, and the latter has totally centralized power
And instead of cutting off weapons, Trump is sending more

(19) Anyway, ever since Zelensky signed the colonial minerals deal with the US, Trump has stopped talking about the need to replace him.

(21) In sum, Zelensky is the perfect neo-colonial ruler of Ukraine for the west.
Hands over resources and rules with an iron fist, rounding off his citizens to die for Western Civilization.

I think he will stay

Read more here eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/contra-hersh…

@KitKlarenberg @ripplebrain @I_Katchanovski