🚨 Retirement is a MYTH!
This is not theory, it’s a demographic time bomb.
Here's why the Retirement Crisis is coming… and no one is ready.👇
This is not theory, it’s a demographic time bomb.
Here's why the Retirement Crisis is coming… and no one is ready.👇
🔖 Bookmark this thread now.
The insights ahead will change how you think about your future forever.
The insights ahead will change how you think about your future forever.
Let’s start with the core question:
If you retire around 70 and have $400k to survive the next 12 years…
a/ Will you spend more?
b/ Oooor, collapse your spending to make it last?
If you retire around 70 and have $400k to survive the next 12 years…
a/ Will you spend more?
b/ Oooor, collapse your spending to make it last?
Most Baby Boomers have no choice!
Even if the median Baby Boomer wealth sits around ~$400k for retirement, that’s it. That’s all they’ll have until they die.
Result?
They cut spending. Not increase it…
Even if the median Baby Boomer wealth sits around ~$400k for retirement, that’s it. That’s all they’ll have until they die.
Result?
They cut spending. Not increase it…
Even assuming a decent 5% return on investments… That $400k only provides ~$45k/year for a retiree and his/her family.
Less than the median household income.
Consumption has to fall.
Hard!!
Less than the median household income.
Consumption has to fall.
Hard!!
Before we go deeper:
This thread is powered by @RealVision’s Alpha, where @RaoulGMI & @BittelJulien unpack the macro forces shaping our future.
If you care about unfucking your future, you need to check it out.
Back to the 🧵...realvision.com/levels/rvalpha
This thread is powered by @RealVision’s Alpha, where @RaoulGMI & @BittelJulien unpack the macro forces shaping our future.
If you care about unfucking your future, you need to check it out.
Back to the 🧵...realvision.com/levels/rvalpha
US consumer spending by age (source: BLS 2015 data):
→ Age 45–54: Peak spending.
→ Age 65–74: Spending collapses by nearly 50%.
→ 75+: Drops even further.
→ Age 45–54: Peak spending.
→ Age 65–74: Spending collapses by nearly 50%.
→ 75+: Drops even further.
💀 This data kills the “aging is inflationary” thesis.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argued that retirees spend their savings, triggering inflation. (publication attached below)
However, Raoul and Julien’s data begs to differ… ❌bis.org/publ/work656.p…
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argued that retirees spend their savings, triggering inflation. (publication attached below)
However, Raoul and Julien’s data begs to differ… ❌bis.org/publ/work656.p…
The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) agrees:
Even wealthy retirees cut spending to preserve wealth for heirs.
They aren’t spending to enjoy retirement.
They’re hoarding cash out of fear of outliving their money…
Even wealthy retirees cut spending to preserve wealth for heirs.
They aren’t spending to enjoy retirement.
They’re hoarding cash out of fear of outliving their money…
@RaoulGMI's anecdote:
His father, a luxury-loving executive, downgraded in every life aspect after retiring.
From BMWs, Champagne, and fine dining in London… To used cars, 5 Euro Cava or Rioja, and "Menú del Día" budget meals in Spain.
This is how retirees behave…
His father, a luxury-loving executive, downgraded in every life aspect after retiring.
From BMWs, Champagne, and fine dining in London… To used cars, 5 Euro Cava or Rioja, and "Menú del Día" budget meals in Spain.
This is how retirees behave…
The macro consequences are clear:
GDP Growth = Population Growth + Productivity + Debt Growth
An aging population shrinks GDP. Which means:
→ Slower growth
→ Lower inflation
→ Falling interest rates
As stated ad nauseum in previous threads, demographics are destiny…
GDP Growth = Population Growth + Productivity + Debt Growth
An aging population shrinks GDP. Which means:
→ Slower growth
→ Lower inflation
→ Falling interest rates
As stated ad nauseum in previous threads, demographics are destiny…
As population growth declines:
→ GDP falls.
→ Inflation falls.
→ Bond yields fall.
It’s structural deflation...
→ GDP falls.
→ Inflation falls.
→ Bond yields fall.
It’s structural deflation...
🇯🇵 Japan is proof:
Despite ultra-low unemployment (<3.5% for a decade), they haven't seen wage inflation, with a population 10 yrs older than the US.
The reason?
A shrinking, aging population kills consumption growth...
Despite ultra-low unemployment (<3.5% for a decade), they haven't seen wage inflation, with a population 10 yrs older than the US.
The reason?
A shrinking, aging population kills consumption growth...
And still, wages never went up!
A smaller workforce ≠ higher wages in a contracting economy...
A smaller workforce ≠ higher wages in a contracting economy...
US death rates are at all-time highs (heart disease, opioids, Covid spike, etc.)
Now add a broken society, stagnant wages, and retiring Baby Boomers, and you have a recipe for collapse.
Why?
Because aging demographics are one of the biggest DEFLATIONARY forces in history…
Now add a broken society, stagnant wages, and retiring Baby Boomers, and you have a recipe for collapse.
Why?
Because aging demographics are one of the biggest DEFLATIONARY forces in history…
📢 A small thread won't do justice to this crucial thesis.
Want the full insights? Watch it free on @RealVision's YouTube 👇
Want the full insights? Watch it free on @RealVision's YouTube 👇
Where does this leave you?
→Slower GDP growth
→Lower inflation over time
→Lower interest rates
→Deflationary macro backdrop
Hence, @RaoulGMI & @BittelJulien going all in on crypto & tech as structural outperformers.
The Retirement Crisis is real.
...and no one is ready...
→Slower GDP growth
→Lower inflation over time
→Lower interest rates
→Deflationary macro backdrop
Hence, @RaoulGMI & @BittelJulien going all in on crypto & tech as structural outperformers.
The Retirement Crisis is real.
...and no one is ready...
Thanks for reading!
This is a recap of @RaoulGMI’s 2017 article “Boom!”, which later became the 3.3M+ views “The Retirement Crisis” video pinned above
Looking for your next read?
👇 Check out why Diversification is Dead… welcome to the Everything Code
This is a recap of @RaoulGMI’s 2017 article “Boom!”, which later became the 3.3M+ views “The Retirement Crisis” video pinned above
Looking for your next read?
👇 Check out why Diversification is Dead… welcome to the Everything Code
https://x.com/paulguerratv/status/1924177513195966661
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