Circle $CRCL is now a $56B company...
Circle trades at 24.5x rev, 61.4x GP, 219x earnings.
You can make money on Circle if you believe
1. With the passage of the GENIUS bill, stablecoins can reach at least $3T in 2030.
2. Circle takes up 29% of total supply and doesn't lose significant share to other issuers and banks.
3. Circle pays no more than 70% of revenue as distribution costs.
4. Fed Funds rate are no lower than 2.8% (Market consensus for July 2027 rates is 3.24%
5. Circle only grows headcount by 70%.
That implies in 2030 Cirlce does $20B of revenue, $6.2B of gross profit, $4B net income.
Circle made me realize public companies clearly trade on narrative + fundamentals given how high their multiples are..
Just be careful for when lock ups end in December 2025.
Circle trades at 24.5x rev, 61.4x GP, 219x earnings.
You can make money on Circle if you believe
1. With the passage of the GENIUS bill, stablecoins can reach at least $3T in 2030.
2. Circle takes up 29% of total supply and doesn't lose significant share to other issuers and banks.
3. Circle pays no more than 70% of revenue as distribution costs.
4. Fed Funds rate are no lower than 2.8% (Market consensus for July 2027 rates is 3.24%
5. Circle only grows headcount by 70%.
That implies in 2030 Cirlce does $20B of revenue, $6.2B of gross profit, $4B net income.
Circle made me realize public companies clearly trade on narrative + fundamentals given how high their multiples are..
Just be careful for when lock ups end in December 2025.
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