As a longtime humanitarian who has battled famines and hunger crises, I fear that starvation in Gaza has now passed the tipping point and we are going to see mass-scale starvation mortality.
A thread on famine momentum, famine response, and what it means for Gaza today.
A thread on famine momentum, famine response, and what it means for Gaza today.
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1948007039499665853
The latest reporting shows telltale signs of rapidly accelerating mortality - the kind of classic famine scenario we know from places like Sudan or Somalia.
Barring a massive reversal of Israeli policy, there is a little standing in the way of total collapse.
Barring a massive reversal of Israeli policy, there is a little standing in the way of total collapse.
Throughout last year Gaza ebbed and flowed at the brink of famine, but never passed the tipping point.
Israeli aid obstruction kept Palestinians perpetually underfed but always relented just enough to avoid mass hunger mortality, as we wrote last Sept:
refugeesinternational.org/reports-briefs…
Israeli aid obstruction kept Palestinians perpetually underfed but always relented just enough to avoid mass hunger mortality, as we wrote last Sept:
refugeesinternational.org/reports-briefs…
That changed in March when the cease-fire collapsed and Israel imposed a blockade that de facto continues to the present day.
The GHF and the other trickles of aid that Israel is permitting are not a meaningful "lifting" of that blockade, and are not changing the trajectory.
The GHF and the other trickles of aid that Israel is permitting are not a meaningful "lifting" of that blockade, and are not changing the trajectory.
The result: starvation deaths that had previously been one-off cases are now emerging in growing clusters.
43 starvation deaths (at least) in the last three days, compared to 68 recorded over the course of the war.
Both figures are likely undercounts, but the trend here is key.
43 starvation deaths (at least) in the last three days, compared to 68 recorded over the course of the war.
Both figures are likely undercounts, but the trend here is key.
Famines gain momentum if they are not controlled early.
The time to prevent starvation deaths is weeks prior, when people reach a state of severe malnutrition.
The time to prevent severe malnutrition is months earlier, when long-term food deficits set in.
The time to prevent starvation deaths is weeks prior, when people reach a state of severe malnutrition.
The time to prevent severe malnutrition is months earlier, when long-term food deficits set in.
By the time people start dying in large daily numbers, both of those windows have been missed.
This famine has now gathered momentum, accrued over months of worsening deprivation and the collapse of the relief effort due to Israel's blockade.
This famine has now gathered momentum, accrued over months of worsening deprivation and the collapse of the relief effort due to Israel's blockade.
Once a famine gathers momentum, the effort required to contain it increases exponentially.
It would now take an overwhelmingly large aid operation to reverse the coming wave of mortality, and it would take months.
Gaza is entering its darkest chapter yet.
It would now take an overwhelmingly large aid operation to reverse the coming wave of mortality, and it would take months.
Gaza is entering its darkest chapter yet.
Normally the reports and images now emerging would trigger a massive int'l response.
So – what needs to happen?
By this point, food alone is not enough. For people weakened by prolonged starvation, famine can kill in multiple ways - and response strategy must cover them all.
So – what needs to happen?
By this point, food alone is not enough. For people weakened by prolonged starvation, famine can kill in multiple ways - and response strategy must cover them all.
When I led these operations for the US govt, they would cover:
- Food aid (obviously)
- Malnutrition treatment
- Health care (disease can kill malnourished people before starvation does)
- Clean water (for consumption & food prep)
- Sanitation (to prevent spreading disease)
- Food aid (obviously)
- Malnutrition treatment
- Health care (disease can kill malnourished people before starvation does)
- Clean water (for consumption & food prep)
- Sanitation (to prevent spreading disease)
Famine response has made great strides over the years and can be miraculously effective when given the space to work.
The innovation and evolution in response tactics has made famines much rarer in recent decades.
But nothing like this is remotely possible right now.
The innovation and evolution in response tactics has made famines much rarer in recent decades.
But nothing like this is remotely possible right now.
Humanitarians can't tackle the famine until the political and security obstacles are removed.
Israel's aid restrictions and ongoing incessant violence towards Palestinian civilians make a proper famine response effectively impossible.
Israel's aid restrictions and ongoing incessant violence towards Palestinian civilians make a proper famine response effectively impossible.
Instead of allowing and facilitating a genuine famine response, Israel is persisting with this GHF farce and using it as a pretext to block legit aid groups.
It is fundamentally unserious and cynical - and as the reports out Gaza make clear, it is failing on the merits.
It is fundamentally unserious and cynical - and as the reports out Gaza make clear, it is failing on the merits.
Every world leader needs to ask themselves if they are ready to be complicit in a famine on their watch.
If they are not, they must act decisively now, using every possible political and diplomatic tool, to pressure Israel to lift this unlawful and murderous blockade.
/end
If they are not, they must act decisively now, using every possible political and diplomatic tool, to pressure Israel to lift this unlawful and murderous blockade.
/end
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