Phil Trubey Profile picture
Jul 27 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering @larsmoravy talked for 55 minutes today at the X Takeover event and he gave us some nuggets. A 🧵
@larsmoravy The upcoming unboxed process for Cybercab increases line speed and manufacturing density. Instead of moving these big empty frames all over the factory on a long 150-200 station final assembly line, unboxed has a 25 station final assembly line.
@larsmoravy Cybercab is engineered to be long lasting and hyper efficient on a cost/mile basis. It has cheap easily replaceable body panels. I suspect Tesla will self insure owned Cybercabs and will repair them after accidents. Yet another vertical integration cost reduction strategy.
@larsmoravy When designing Cybercab’s body with “plastic panels”, they were able to have a single 2 hour meeting with in-house materials team, Franz’s design team, engineers who make the assembly line machines, etc. Would have taken months at any other company.
@larsmoravy Optimus has micron level precision parts. They are designing the manufacturing line to make thousands per week.
@larsmoravy Lars is most looking forward to Semi. Total Cost Of Ownership will be so compelling it’ll be a “no brainer” for truck operators to buy it. Wish he was asked about charging infrastructure since I suspect that'll be the gating factor for both depot and long haul.
@larsmoravy They just built revised "beta" Semis in their prototype factory and will have production versions in January 2026.

Btw, forgot to mention above that did did their first Cybercab crash test last week and it passed with flying colors ("of course" Lars said).
@larsmoravy Lars ends saying that five years ago he was hoping Tesla would still be alive in five years, and he says the same thing now. Tesla continues to take “big swings” like autonomy and Semi. Tesla is simply not afraid to do hard, risky but rewarding projects.

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More from @PTrubey

Jul 27
Elon said spoken Grok integration is coming to our Teslas soon. Initially it'll just answer questions and not be able to control any aspect of the car.

I expect we'll eventually get a staged roll out of car control features, like climate control, speaker volume, wipers. But...
Tesla will be very cautious about this since agentic AIs have a bad habit of doing bad things from time to time. I expect a long internal beta with red team attempts to get it to misbehave. Eventually,
...Tesla will want to allow people to direct a Cybercab to stop at a particular curb or whatever. Which will bring us finally to real life Hal interactions.

“I’m sorry Dave, I can’t do that” when some drunk human asks the Cybercab to crash into a liquor storefront.

It'll...
Read 4 tweets
Jul 27
Elon just spoke at the X Takeover event. The new news is that v3 of Optimus is a full redesign from v2. “Almost nothing” stayed the same. @GoingBallistic5 has been subtly implying for a while that their actuators could have been better designed. 🧵
@GoingBallistic5 Elon then talked about super intelligence. His metric is that ASI must invent new technologies. I think Elon has a big blind spot here. He implies that an LLM like Grok is the path to get to ASI.
@GoingBallistic5 But AIs have already invented new technologies that are being used today. Remember protein folding? Or the AI that discovered how to reduce plasma instabilities in a fusion reactor? NVIDIA an AI to build their AI chips. It's the only way they can pump out new chips every year.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 24
Three months ago I wrote that $TSLA is going through a transition no less dramatic than what Netflix did when it transitioned to online streaming from mailing DVDs.

I predicted a smooth transition, unlike Netflix's 80% stock drop. I may have been optimistic. 🧵
Elon in yesterday’s earnings call: “So I mean, does that mean like we could have a few rough quarters? Yes, we probably could have a few rough quarters. And I'm not saying we will, but we could, Q4, Q1, maybe Q2. But once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year, I think I would be surprised if Tesla's economics are not very compelling.”
He’s saying that earnings are going to be bad or flat for the next four quarters(!) AND the only way out will be a brand new speculative Robotaxi service which has zero revenue/earnings guidance. Ouch.
Read 6 tweets

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