I've written a response to an anti-stablecoin op-ed published in the WSJ by acclaimed Stanford Professor Amit Seru,
Narrow Banks Create Credit
One of my favorite things about crypto is the way its novelty challenges otherwise intelligent people. Some rise to the occasion, opening their minds, learning, and evolving their thinking. Others reveal previously unearthed gaps in their knowledge, at best, or just good old fashioned bias.
I’m fortunate to know plenty of the former in academia. For a good example of the latter, see this anti-stablecoin op-ed in the Wall Street Journal from accomplished Stanford professor Amit Seru. In it, he argues that stablecoins are a sort of sheep in wolf’s clothing (my words), promising financial innovation and safer banking but delivering neither. He is not a fan of the Genius Act.
For a good explanation of what Seru gets wrong about Genius, I recommend @intangiblecoins Thorn’s article on Twitter. My beef with Seru’s op-ed is what he gets wrong about banking and credit.
Stablecoins, as Genius dictates, are just narrow banks whose liabilities exist in a more superior form factor, the cryptographic token. Seru doesn’t seem to take issue with the token, but he doesn’t like narrow banking:
But clarity isn’t the same as safety. The act formalizes stablecoins as narrow banks—entities that collect deposits but don’t lend—in all but name. That means no maturity mismatch, yes, but also no credit intermediation. The economic engine of finance, transforming savings into investment, is bypassed. Run-proof money becomes idle money.
This is a recycling of an old canard that levered (AKA fractionally reserved) banks create credit while narrow ones don’t. This is false, and I can prove it.
Circle actually published an attestation of how much credit it has created every month. Per Deloitte, Circle’s reserves at the end of May consisted of Treasuries, repurchase agreements, and cash parked at banks.
Treasuries are a transferable loan to the US government.
Repos are secured loans to other financial institutions.
A bank deposit is money lent to a bank.
If these aren’t credit, then I don’t know what is. And I promise, all 3 types of counterparties put that money to work. The US government doesn’t just borrow money via the bond market and sit on it. Neither do firms paying over 4% interest for term loans, or banks that collect deposits. There’s no idle money here.
People who argue that only levered banks create credit ignore the inconvenient fact that in America, banks account for just 20% of credit creation. There are five trillion dollars in money market funds alone. Is that also idle money? What about the agency market for mortgage-backed securities?
Are the pension funds that buy MBS from Fannie and Freddie—as opposed to parking their money at a levered bank—doing the equivalent of putting their money in a shoe box? Of course not, they are participating in the credit creation that drives the housing market.
Credit is something that gets created anytime an economic agent lends money to another. It doesn’t matter if you do it via a stablecoin, money market fund, vanilla savings account, or direct loan to your uncle.
There are benefits to lending via an intermediary—I’d much rather invest in a bond fund that buys agency debt than lend the money directly to a stranger who wants to buy a house. But there are many kinds of intermediaries, and each has its own pluses and minuses. Levered banks like SVB practice maturity transformation, and that brings down the cost of long term debt, but they do so at the risk of catastrophic runs.
Ironically, Seru himself explains this dynamic:
This wishful thinking is fueled in part by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. That was no tale of subprime mortgages or exotic derivatives, but a rerun of the oldest story in banking: maturity mismatch. Depositors, in particular those uninsured, can withdraw on demand. Banks invest long-term. When interest rates jump and confidence cracks, withdrawals follow, assets are fire-sold, and the government steps in. Again.
But quixotically, he doesn’t use this flaw of traditional banking to defend narrow banking. He projects it unto stablecoins later in the op-ed:
As ever in finance, as in fables, great power often hides even greater fragility. If stablecoins become embedded in everyday transactions, their failure won’t be contained in the crypto world. It will become a problem for households, firms and, through an inevitable bailout, taxpayers.
That stablecoins will face the same kind of runs that levered banks do—and require the same kind of anti-run measures like deposit insurance and taxpayer bailouts—is a second fallacy pushed by confused skeptics.
In reality, narrow banks are safer. That safety makes depositors less likely to run in the first place, thus requiring less deposit insurance or bailouts. In theory, a Genius-compliant stablecoin issuer can unwind its entire balance sheet with minimum impact.
The liquidation of its reserves might cause temporary distortions in the bond and repo markets, but that’s just how markets work. We can’t regulate away selling. The distortion caused by a narrow bank unwind are always less than when a fractionally-reserved bank fails. Genius compliant stablecoins also enjoy bankruptcy remoteness, which is better than the bankruptcy supremacy FinTech depositors often get.
I’ve read professor Seru’s op-ed at least five times, and still don’t really understand what his point is, except to argue against change. He’s an expert on bank runs, so you’d think he’d be pro a safer form of intermediation.
Perhaps he’s just a fan of Bitcoin. How else are we to interpret this statement:
For all the hype, stablecoins haven’t transcended banking. They have replicated its tensions in new form. The real promise of blockchain was to end trust dependencies. Instead, we are doubling down on them, now under federal supervision.
Which brings me to one of my other favorite things about crypto: the more people argue against one aspect of it, the more they inadvertently end up defending another. Maybe that’s what happens when you oppose progress.
A lot of people don't know this, but financial markets and banks don't close on nights, weekends and holidays to let people rest.
They close because the architecture of their underlying systems are the same as when everything was still analogue.
T+2 settlement for certain capital markets or delays in payments are vestiges of an outdated system.
They are comical given the progress the rest of the economy has made. You can get a couch delivered on Sunday, but not your money!
TradFi folks will tell you about the progress being made with solutions like SWIFT GPI, FedNow or T+1 settlement in US stocks. And they are right, these are major undertakings.
But they are the equivalent of faster fax machines in the late 90s. Or landlines with call waiting.
Here's another tell that crypto is going to matter: the same types of people who told us it was dangerous because it as unregulated are not saying it will be more dangerous if it is regulated. In the WSJ:
Reminds me of when Bitcoin haters switched from "but all the mining is in China" to " China just banned mining!" as their preferred critique,
Regulating crypto = bad FUD is only going to increase. I particularly like the argument that crypto is just gambling and speculation, not finance. Apparently nobody on Wall Street ever gambles!
The FT story on Hong Kong regulators pressuring banks to onboard crypto companies is revealing on two fronts. The first is the obvious one, China is pivoting hard into crypto.
This comes as a surprise to people who thought China "banned" crypto but that's a misunderstanding of how the CCP operates.
It was never about banning, but exerting control over a new industry. This is how State Capitalism works.
Freshly mined Bitcoin as moved through OTC trading desks became a bit too popular for evading capital controls, so the government "banned" mining: scmp.com/economy/china-…
I often wonder whether Bitcoiners like @saylor or @jackmallers actually use the Lightning Network. It's not the panacea they promise, and due to certain technical and financial limitations, it never will be. Understanding why is important to the future of Bitcoin, so a 🧵
P2P Channels are at the heart of LN. You can send a payment to anyone you open a channel with on the main chain, up to the amount of you lock up. But this introduces a major cost of capital constraint. Everything is pre-funded, so more channels = more locked up BTC.
The genius of LN is the ability to securely route payments through other channels. You have a channel with Bob and he has one with Alice, so you don't need a channel with Alice. So far so good. But what if Bob doesn't have a channel with all the other people you'd like to pay?
Really enjoyed the OddLots interview of @nic__carter by @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway but I want to pushback on the point that Bitcoin is a bad inflation hedge. It's based on a narrow view of what makes anything a good inflation hedge.
A thread:
The common critique of Bitcoin is that it lost value in 2022, a year of high inflation.
But if the definition of a good inflation hedge is "going up when the CPI is spiking" then the best hedge against dollar inflation last year was......the dollar!
That's because almost every asset class-- including stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate (via REITs)--fell in dollar terms.
A good rule of thumb for understanding central banking is they create problems that they must expand their powers to fix.
The Fed started the regional banking crisis by exploding deposits during Covid, then rapidly hiking rates. Now it must announce a new facility to stop it.
The two most likely solutions are some kind of total deposit guarantee, and a regional TARP.
The deposit guarantee alone won’t stop the bleeding, money will keep going to money market funds for better yield.
That means they’ll have to do something to prop up the equity. Back in 08, the Troubled Asset Relief Program did the same. Originally meant to buy toxic assets, it morphed into a government hedge fund that bought bank stocks and warrants.