The world's famine alert system is warning us – in the starkest possible terms – that any remaining window to avert mass starvation deaths in Gaza is about to close.
A quick dive into what the report tells us:
A quick dive into what the report tells us:
https://twitter.com/theIPCinfo/status/1950105240461590945
This confirms what media reports (and frankly anyone with eyes) could see over the past week: a famine unfurling in Gaza.
While this is not (yet) a formal famine declaration, it signals that one is likely coming.
Importantly, formal declarations ALWAYS come after the fact.
While this is not (yet) a formal famine declaration, it signals that one is likely coming.
Importantly, formal declarations ALWAYS come after the fact.
Famine declaration is a lagging indicator.
By the time data can be collected proving the presence of famine conditions, those conditions have invariably been in place for some time.
In the 2011 Somalia famine, half of the 260K people lost had already died prior to declaration.
By the time data can be collected proving the presence of famine conditions, those conditions have invariably been in place for some time.
In the 2011 Somalia famine, half of the 260K people lost had already died prior to declaration.
(personally I feel this lagging dynamic reflects a major flaw in the famine analysis and warning system, but that is a thread for another day)
Famine is declared based on three thresholds:
🚨Extreme lack of access to food
🚨>30% child malnutrition
🚨Death rate of 2 people (or 4 kids under 5) per 10k per day
🚨Extreme lack of access to food
🚨>30% child malnutrition
🚨Death rate of 2 people (or 4 kids under 5) per 10k per day
The alert finds that the food access is beyond famine level throughout Gaza and malnutrition has breached famine levels in Gaza City.
This is turn is beginning to drive rising mortality rates.
This is turn is beginning to drive rising mortality rates.
Think of the thresholds as firewalls:
Sustained food deprivation will inevitably produce severe malnutrition, which over time will inevitably produce mass mortality.
Today's alert is an urgent appeal to contain mass starvation & malnutrition before those become mass mortality.
Sustained food deprivation will inevitably produce severe malnutrition, which over time will inevitably produce mass mortality.
Today's alert is an urgent appeal to contain mass starvation & malnutrition before those become mass mortality.
Let’s walk quickly through the data.
On food access, famine thresholds are already breached across the strip:
- 1 in 3 people are going days at a time without food
- Astronomical price spikes have put food out of reach for most people.
On food access, famine thresholds are already breached across the strip:
- 1 in 3 people are going days at a time without food
- Astronomical price spikes have put food out of reach for most people.
The alert finds that fewer than 1 in 4 Gazans can reach @GHFUpdates sites, and among those, GHF food does not reach those most at risk of starvation.
Also notes this food requires clean water and cooking fuel to prepare, neither of which are readily available in Gaza today.
Also notes this food requires clean water and cooking fuel to prepare, neither of which are readily available in Gaza today.
The data also show how starkly food imports have fallen since the Israeli blockade began in March.
No food whatsoever entered in March/April, and the amounts since May are woefully insufficient and lacking the nutritional diversity required to address malnutrition.
No food whatsoever entered in March/April, and the amounts since May are woefully insufficient and lacking the nutritional diversity required to address malnutrition.
All this inevitably generates mass malnutrition (the 2nd threshold).
Malnutrition is accelerating across Gaza, with evidence Gaza City has breached the famine threshold by now.
(2nd image is from N. Gaza data linked in footnote 44 - look at the jump from June to July)
Malnutrition is accelerating across Gaza, with evidence Gaza City has breached the famine threshold by now.
(2nd image is from N. Gaza data linked in footnote 44 - look at the jump from June to July)
This is all highly consistent with NGO and media reports on the physical conditions of people coming into clinics in a state of extreme malnutrition.
And it would make sense the conditions are worst in the north, where little aid has reached since early March.
And it would make sense the conditions are worst in the north, where little aid has reached since early March.
Mass mortality follows on the heels of mass starvation and mass malnutrition as surely as night follows day.
Israel's near-total obstruction of aid since March, following on a year and a half of willfully managed deprivation, has created an utter catastrophe.
Israel's near-total obstruction of aid since March, following on a year and a half of willfully managed deprivation, has created an utter catastrophe.
Without a massive, immediate, unfettered famine response, countless people in Gaza will starve to death.
The lack of real pressure on Israel by those with leverage means many deaths are already inevitable.
But far more could yet be saved if action is taken. It must begin now.
The lack of real pressure on Israel by those with leverage means many deaths are already inevitable.
But far more could yet be saved if action is taken. It must begin now.
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