Tether now holds $106b of US treasuries directly, making it a larger creditor to America than G7 countries Germany ($102b) and Italy (under threshold). If it were a country, it's direct holdings would make it the 19th largest foreign holder in the world
1. Rates Lower but Higher
- Market is pricing in some serious cuts in ‘24 with a ~80% chance of rates ending sub 4%
- I’m on the less aggro side and say we end ‘24 north of 4% but sub 5%
- I’m betting inflation is sticky on the way down and the fed will have trouble cutting
2. Crypto Market Cap >$2T
- Trustless financial systems will only become more valuable (esp with lower rates)
- Global conflict, migrant flows, inflationary fiat, and fallible banking systems are all tailwinds
- Crypto market cap sits at $1.7t today and is headed higher