Thread by @aaronnarraph

Zohran didn't win by relying on standard turnout patterns. We had to fundamentally transform the Democratic electorate.

I was part of a group of NYC-DSA members that applied lessons from our previous campaigns to design the “universe” of voters to talk to. Here's how we won 🧵

Translated from campaign-speak, the “universe” is the list of voters a campaign plans to prioritize outreach to, via door knocking and phonebanking.

What we were doing—building a universe for a socialist mayoral candidate in the country’s largest city—was unprecedented.

In most Dem campaigns, the most coveted voters are “triple primes” who have voted in the 3 most recent primaries.

But in NYC-DSA campaigns, mobilizing triple primes has never been enough for us to win. In fact, we've always done best in cycles when infrequent voters turned out.

With that in mind, we built a universe with components such as:

1) Progressive voters. We ranked precincts based on past primary results & focused on turning out “zero prime” voters (hadn't voted in any recent primary) in the most left-wing neighborhoods in the city.

2) Muslim and South Asian voters. We analyzed last names to identify concentrations of M/SA voters we needed to reach, from large neighborhoods to tiny enclaves, adding many zero primes.

3) Rent-stabilized tenants. We added the largest complexes & most progressive precincts.

Our final universe was equal parts triple prime AND zero prime, with large numbers of M/SA voters & recent registrants.

Shout out to @Devinitelybk, @JaggaS1ngh, Asher Ross, Julian Graham, @maevehove, Austin Warrington, field staff (Tascha, Carmen, Ravi) & others for their work!

Our universe was extremely predictive of the final results, to the point that I literally collapsed on Election Night when looking at the results from Brighton Beach, a Pakistani/Uzbek neighborhood we had identified months earlier for prioritization based on last name analysis.

In the final round, Zohran won *all but one* of the universe's progressive precincts we'd IDed months prior.

The most left-wing group of precincts had:
> The highest turnout / increase
> The most first-time primary voters
> A staggering 72%(!) for Zohran in R1 (87% at the end!!)

During the campaign, some questioned why we continued canvassing neighborhoods we were guaranteed to win.

The reason was we needed to do more than just win our base with a large percentage of the vote; that percentage also had to be accompanied by jaw-dropping turnout increases.

We also won almost every M/SA area we'd identified via last name analysis, even enclaves like:

> South Asians in Flushing
> Afghanis in Kew Gardens Hills
> South Asians in Fresh Meadows Apartments
> Muslims in the Shore Haven Apartments in Bath Beach

Two of Zohran's best precincts in the city:

LEFT: Bushwick, a block away from Maria Hernandez Park. Turnout more than doubled from 2021. 584 votes for Zohran, 90% of the vote

RIGHT: City Line, Bangladeshis. 207 votes for Zohran, 91% of the vote (DSA got 8% here in 2022)

Looking at what our universe couldn’t predict, Zohran’s strength with Latino and Chinese voters was remarkable.

The campaign’s citywide focus, carefully crafted messaging, and refusal to cede a single neighborhood to Cuomo meant that we were able to run up the score everywhere.

This includes making serious inroads with Black voters, by winning young Black voters outright and easily securing majorities in majority Black neighborhoods like Crown Heights, Harlem, and Flatbush in Round 1.

This critical organizing will continue into the general election.

In conclusion: Zohran’s landslide victory proves that the possibilities are endless for the Left.

We must run socialists for office across the country, from school boards to Congress. We must fight oligarchy by defeating politicians on its payroll in Dem primaries.

We know that democratic socialism and economic populism can win elections—if coupled with strong fundraising, creative communications strategies, and well-thought-out field programs.

We must be honest about our existing base of support and where we can build out a new base.

The approach NYC-DSA used in creating Zohran’s universe can be replicated anywhere, and I encourage DSA chapters across the country to do so in their own insurgent campaigns!

I have a lot more to say that I hope to publish eventually. This is just a taste...more to come!

If you liked this thread and want to hear more from some of the incredible behind-the-scenes organizers of the Zohran campaign, join this mass call TONIGHT at 8pm EST / 5pm PST! I'll be MCing 🫡

https://x.com/DSASocMaj/status/1950919581654032764

Finally, thank you to @MichaelLangeNYC for making some of the incredible tables included in this thread!

Subscribe to his Substack: michaellange.nyc