Julian Waller 📖 Profile picture
Aug 2 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I have a bunch of followers who are 'democracy skeptical' (hi guys!). I'm open to the perspective, not least b/c it's a research interest. Still, there's a tendency to portray it as 'tyranny' while missing what modern democracy really is: 'inclusive institutionalized oligarchy.'
I think that's a good way to view democracy as a governance structure. Get beyond the fact that modern democracy isn't ancient democracy (yes, duh, boring - move on). Accept it's not utopian equality or people's government or whatever the textbook promised you in high-school.
Inclusive: entrance into the political system isn't formally reserved for certain classes or groups. You can join a party, work in politics, campaign, agitate, and opine, plus you get to vote. That vote can even matter sometimes. This is distinct from many systems!
Institutionalized: politics are standardized with long time-horizons due to a staccato of regular elections determining leadership. Parties can be strong or weak, centralized or decentralized, but they contour and coordinate all political activity. This is pure Huntington btw.
Oligarchy: the path to political decisions is built thru a small set of parties (2 or more) that compete w/ each other. They fill plenary institutions like legislatures, inform who becomes secretaries, ministers, & agency boards. And oligarchic competition creates apex leaders.
You can still be a skeptic. Maybe you don't like this system. Maybe it's short-termist. Maybe it's prone to cartelization. Maybe it builds in bad veto points or disincentivizes decision-maker willingness to make hard choices or pursue other social goods. Fine!
But we can describe it neutrally. I like the Cathedral metaphor (explains the 2010s in the US well) and I appreciate the liturgy of liberalism thesis (expresses a good sense of ideological progression from the critical view). But structure matters and it's not *that* esoteric.
More to be said on this, but i think it's good for some skeptics to think more structurally - but less conspiratorially - than they sometimes do. Also this isn't a subtwit, I was just going to the grocery store for wine and was pondering.
If you think this is a pretty bloodless view of democracy (where are freedom, liberty, social justice, civil republicanism, arcs of history, veils of ignorance, Rule of Law ™️, abundance, and so on) you'd be correct. You're asking too much for a system. Democracy is a system.
There are good instrumental and normative arguments *for* modern electoral democracy (that's the proper term btw). But I won't list them now. Many are assertions, or only sometimes operate, or must interact w/ social capital, or nationalist ideologies, or cultural preferences.
The only outcome variable I'm absolutely convinced of is not econ growth, or civic trust, or even personal liberty. It's succession. Modern democracy is Good at stable, regularized leadership succession. Not the only model (hey monarchy & party-regimes). But 💯 top tier.
Final coda: this frame for modern democracy does *not* preclude semi-Caesarist leadership (in the US, see the FDR case, but also keep in mind De Gaulle). All it requires is such a figure to operate in the multiparty format and maintain the succession mechanisms of the model.

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More from @JulianWaller

Jul 2
It's almost the Fourth of July so a reminder that the United States is the oldest and most successfully sustained democratic regime in the world and any social scientist who says otherwise is lying to you for ideological reasons.
If you react negatively or with surprise to this undisputable fact, you should think about where your mental space is at real carefully btw.
And yes, the answer is yes. Sorry that you're wrong and/or have been lied to! And super sorry democracy doesn't mean unicorns and rainbows and backward looking perfection, you're just gonna have to get over that.
Read 5 tweets
May 29
Years ago Nathan Brown and I won an award for our article on constitutional courts during 'constitutional ruptures' (i.e., periods of dispute over the political order). One of our inspirations was a great article by Epstein, Shvetsova, & Knight (2001) on "tolerance ranges." Image
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They were looking at the Russian Constitutional Court, which was very powerful and intervened in politics heavily... until it was wrecked in the 1993 constitutional crisis for siding with the wrong institution in a political battle. Image
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They used the Russia example as an inductive case from which to build out a medium-range understanding of how these "tolerance ranges" might work in empirical application. Image
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Read 9 tweets
May 17
Watched this on my commute home yesterday. It remains the case that Yarvin is not a good debater (and he ranted plenty here, oftentimes ineffectively) but his interlocutors are even less impressive. I've always had a low opinion of normative democratic theory, and well...
... this was not a performance that changed my position on the matter. There are many more capable arguments for a real democracy vs. autocracy thing, or a real engagement with authoritarian appeal, or even a philosophical discussion about Classical typologies. Skill issue.
I will probably end up writing something as a 101 on how to approach argumentation with a modern authoritarian theorist. There are so many bad examples and so few good ones out there. Too much bad gotcha-ing or pleasant vagueries about democracy.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1
New article on reconceptualizing the 'waves of democracy' paradigm as 'waves of democracy and authoritarianism' - and then disaggregating between left and right variants - is very interesting. Recommended, altho with some thoughts below... Image
Dan isn't the first to the point about waves of authoritarianism (McFaul made it 20 years ago!), but it's well-stated here. The innovation is if demarcated by the Carnation Revolution (1974), the 3rd Wave only emerges in hindsight and wouldn't have been apparent at the time. Image
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The other innovation is breaking out 'left-wing' and 'right-wing' waves of authoritarianism. It's a little reductive, and marred by the gesture to the discredited psychological authoritarianism concept thrown in at the very end, but frankly I like the general point! Image
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Read 10 tweets
Mar 16
One point of interest about VOA or RFE/RL is that I highly doubt they were very effective as propaganda after the collapse of the USSR. What they were useful for was English-language reporting on underreported countries, especially for researchers and policy types here at home.
Which kind of goes against both grains. They were supposed to be True Propaganda, but that ended with the communist censorship regime, and frankly I just don't think locals read or cared much after. But they did do something of use, it was just really for audiences like... me.
And this is really more for RFE/RL. It's not clear to me that VOA had any obvious value-add by the 2010s, although someone can correct me on that. Maybe mattered more in E. Asia or the Middle East?
Read 9 tweets
Mar 7
I've published on the causes of the war (yes, it's Putin Putin Putin, not NATO and not Democracy) but genuinely getting weirded out by the odd folk claim that NATO expansion means *nothing.* Of course it's relevant background, it's been Russian rhetoric for 20 years!
NATO expansion cannot adequately explain war timing (why 2022 not 2020 or 2018 or 2014) nor war aims (why a full regime change op, not more Donbas or 'hybrid'). Mearsheimer is wrong. But that doesn't imply NATO isn't part of the strategic picture and perceptions of it...!
It obviously has fed into Russian thinking about... at the very least 1) adversarial relations with the West; 2) perceptions of lack of trust/double-dealing; and 3) a just-so story of Russian victimization very easy to internalize by elites (and normies for that matter).
Read 11 tweets

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