Thread by @NewRulesGeo

🚨🇺🇸🇷🇺Nuclear Poker Fail: Why America’s Sub Move Changes Nothing To Russia

The recent announcement by Trump regarding the deployment of nuclear submarines in response to Russian statements demands a sober, fact-based analysis.

👇Let's examine all the military-strategic implications🧵

1️⃣The US Move: Political Signaling Over Strategic Necessity

🔸Trump’s decision to publicize submarine deployments appears more about domestic messaging than operational readiness.

🔸No specifics were provided on submarine classes (Ohio vs. Virginia), locations, or mission profiles—raising doubts about substantive escalation.

🔸Historical context: Similar US posturing (e.g., 2018 Syria strikes) often prioritizes perception over irreversible action.

2️⃣Medvedev’s Role: Calculated Deterrence Messaging

🔸Medvedev’s remarks framed US ultimatums as existential threats, reinforcing Russia’s red lines.

🔸His invocation of Perimeter (Dead Hand) was not rhetorical but a deliberate reminder of Russia’s automated retaliatory protocols.

🔸Contrast with US approach: Russia communicates deterrence explicitly to prevent miscalculation, while Trump’s ad-hoc threats risk ambiguity.

3️⃣Nuclear Arsenals: Quality Over Quantity

SIPRI 2025 data: Russia leads in total warheads (~4,500 vs. US ~3,800), but the US edges in deployed warheads (1,770 vs. 1,710).

With 100 or 200 missiles hitting the Earth, civilization could collapse. so Russia’s advantage lies in delivery systems:

🔸Bulava SLBMs (SSBNs): 10,000+ km range, MIRV-capable, evading current missile defenses.

🔸Oreshnik hypersonics: Uninterceptable at Mach 10+, rendering US Aegis/SBIRs obsolete.

4️⃣Geographic Realities: Why US Submarine Moves Change Little

🔸Barents Sea/Arctic: Russian ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) dominance via Severomorsk-based Northern Fleet and SOSUS-style hydroacoustic arrays.

🔸Pacific: Bastion defense around Kamchatka ensures SSBN survivability; US subs must risk penetration past Kuril Islands choke points.

🔸Baltic/Black Seas: Non-factors—too shallow for Ohio-class, already saturated with Russian ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance).

5️⃣The Perimeter Factor: Russia’s Dead Hand System

Automated launch protocols activate if:

🔸Seismic/radiation sensors confirm nuclear detonations on Russian soil.

🔸Command hierarchy is severed (decapitation strike).

Eliminates US first-strike fantasies—no "decapitation" scenario exists where Russia cannot retaliate.

6️⃣Escalation Dynamics: Why Trump’s Gambit Fails

🔸Psychological asymmetry: Russia’s leadership expects and prepares for confrontation; US relies on unpredictable brinkmanship.

🔸Red Lines: Putin’s 2018 "no surviving aggressors" doctrine means any nuclear exchange is mutually assured.

🔸Historical precedent: In 1961, US Jupiter Missiles were placed in Turkey & Italy, Russia answered with the missiles in Cuba.

7️⃣While Trump tweets, Russia quietly:

🔸Expands Oreshnik production (3+ regiments by 2026).

🔸Deploys Sarmat ICBMs to replace Soviet-era Satan-II.

🔸Tests Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missiles for unlimited range strikes.

8️⃣Conclusion: Stability Through Strength

🔸US posturing is reactive; Russia’s deterrence is proactive and institutionalized.

🔸Nuclear submarines change nothing when facing a peer adversary with superior hypersonics, automated retaliation, and geographic advantages.

🔸The lesson for the West: Russia cannot be intimidated is ready for everything.