Here's one way to think about what I started calling the "Washington - Wall Street Industrial Complex" since before crypto:
Fact: Banking, in America and other countries, is a "protected" industry. It's protected via difficult chartering processes, expensive regulations, and massive bailouts. It's the only industry where regulators have a mandate to make sure it remains profitable.
And it's among the few where the government makes sure citizens get inferior products at higher costs to protect industry profits (e.g., the ban on interest payments from FinTechs & stablecoin issuers).
Fact: Banking, in America and other countries, is a workaround to building a surveillance state and violating individual liberties otherwise protected by law (in America's case, protected within the most important part of the foundational document, the bill of rights).
The alphabet soup of "compliance:" programs like AML, KYC, CFT, Sanctions etc gives the government extra-legal tools to surveil, censor, and oppress.
As Commisioner @HesterPeirce pointed out yesterday in her must-read speech, this workaround is enabled by a third-party doctrine where many of our rights (like the 4th amendment) don't apply if we "voluntarily" disclose personal information to a third party, like a bank.
But a lot of that disclosure isn't voluntary. Neither is the debanking that the crypto industry (and other non-favored industries or marginalized groups) have experienced over the years.
The government can't just willy nilly surveil or discriminate against companies it doesn't like without due process, but banks can, and do. They are encouraged to.
Fact: The supposed reason why the alphabet soup exists, to prevent illicit activity, is a canard. None of it actually works.
I know this because I've had very frank conversations with senior people in government enforcement of the soup and senior bank execs in charge of enforcing it. They all agree on only catching "the tip of the iceberg".
We know this because trillions get laundered through the banking system annually. Every year some big bank gets slapped with a billion-dollar fine and nobody bats an eye. Surveys show the vast majority of bank-execs treat AML fines as "just the cost of doing business."
One way to identify a failed regime, or just a bad law, is when most people subject to it just break the rules and pay the fine.
Another is to identify simple flaws in logic of how it's implemented, like the fact that the thresholds for reporting are not inflation adjusted.
Conclusion: When you combine these facts, it becomes apparent that the way banks are treated by the government has less to do with protecting people and more to do with exposing them--to surveillance and overreach.
Crypto fixes this complex. Or at least exposes it for being flawed and disingenuous.
Fun supporting evidence: Jamie Dimon, Elizabeth Warren, and countless other no-coiner academics & columnists don't agree on much, but they all agree that on perpetuating the Complex.
When the bedfellows are strange, the motivation is suspect.
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A lot of people don't know this, but financial markets and banks don't close on nights, weekends and holidays to let people rest.
They close because the architecture of their underlying systems are the same as when everything was still analogue.
T+2 settlement for certain capital markets or delays in payments are vestiges of an outdated system.
They are comical given the progress the rest of the economy has made. You can get a couch delivered on Sunday, but not your money!
TradFi folks will tell you about the progress being made with solutions like SWIFT GPI, FedNow or T+1 settlement in US stocks. And they are right, these are major undertakings.
But they are the equivalent of faster fax machines in the late 90s. Or landlines with call waiting.
Here's another tell that crypto is going to matter: the same types of people who told us it was dangerous because it as unregulated are not saying it will be more dangerous if it is regulated. In the WSJ:
Reminds me of when Bitcoin haters switched from "but all the mining is in China" to " China just banned mining!" as their preferred critique,
Regulating crypto = bad FUD is only going to increase. I particularly like the argument that crypto is just gambling and speculation, not finance. Apparently nobody on Wall Street ever gambles!
The FT story on Hong Kong regulators pressuring banks to onboard crypto companies is revealing on two fronts. The first is the obvious one, China is pivoting hard into crypto.
This comes as a surprise to people who thought China "banned" crypto but that's a misunderstanding of how the CCP operates.
It was never about banning, but exerting control over a new industry. This is how State Capitalism works.
Freshly mined Bitcoin as moved through OTC trading desks became a bit too popular for evading capital controls, so the government "banned" mining: scmp.com/economy/china-…
I often wonder whether Bitcoiners like @saylor or @jackmallers actually use the Lightning Network. It's not the panacea they promise, and due to certain technical and financial limitations, it never will be. Understanding why is important to the future of Bitcoin, so a 🧵
P2P Channels are at the heart of LN. You can send a payment to anyone you open a channel with on the main chain, up to the amount of you lock up. But this introduces a major cost of capital constraint. Everything is pre-funded, so more channels = more locked up BTC.
The genius of LN is the ability to securely route payments through other channels. You have a channel with Bob and he has one with Alice, so you don't need a channel with Alice. So far so good. But what if Bob doesn't have a channel with all the other people you'd like to pay?
Really enjoyed the OddLots interview of @nic__carter by @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway but I want to pushback on the point that Bitcoin is a bad inflation hedge. It's based on a narrow view of what makes anything a good inflation hedge.
A thread:
The common critique of Bitcoin is that it lost value in 2022, a year of high inflation.
But if the definition of a good inflation hedge is "going up when the CPI is spiking" then the best hedge against dollar inflation last year was......the dollar!
That's because almost every asset class-- including stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate (via REITs)--fell in dollar terms.
A good rule of thumb for understanding central banking is they create problems that they must expand their powers to fix.
The Fed started the regional banking crisis by exploding deposits during Covid, then rapidly hiking rates. Now it must announce a new facility to stop it.
The two most likely solutions are some kind of total deposit guarantee, and a regional TARP.
The deposit guarantee alone won’t stop the bleeding, money will keep going to money market funds for better yield.
That means they’ll have to do something to prop up the equity. Back in 08, the Troubled Asset Relief Program did the same. Originally meant to buy toxic assets, it morphed into a government hedge fund that bought bank stocks and warrants.