Thread by @HalaJaber

Lebanon’s cabinet just signed off on Washington’s “ceasefire stabilization” plan.
Read the fine print, & you’ll see it’s not a peace plan, it’s a dismantling blueprint.
Here are the poison pills buried inside the clauses you just read 👇

https://twitter.com/halajaber/status/1953545795287883856

Clause 1
“Exclusive state control over war/peace decisions & weapons.”
Sounds normal, if the state could defend its people.
In Lebanon, this means dismantling Hezbollah while the army remains under-armed & foreign-restricted.
No clause forces Israel to stop daily violations before disarmament.

Clause 3
“Gradual end to all non-state armed presence, north & south of Litani.”
1701 only applied south of the Litani.
This quietly expands it nationwide, dismantling Hezbollah’s entire defense structure, not just its southern front.

Clause 4
“Deploy LAF to border & key sites.”
With no upgrade to rules of engagement or capabilities, this just turns the army into a static, under-equipped buffer for Israel’s benefit.

Clause 5
“Israel withdraws from 5 points, border talks.”
Marketed as a win, but these are crumbs compared to what Lebanon gives up.
No timeline, no enforcement, & nothing on Shebaa Farms, Kfar Shouba, or Ghajar.

Clause 10
“Economic conference to help Lebanon.”
Aid dangled as a carrot for compliance.
Classic US & Gulf play: leverage financial collapse to force political concessions.

Missing in action
No binding guarantee Israel will halt land, sea, or air violations first.
No enforcement if it doesn’t.
No plan to arm the LAF to credible levels.
In short: the occupation remains, only Lebanon’s deterrence disappears.

Legal bottom line
Under international law, a people under occupation have the inherent right to armed resistance, state or non-state, until full withdrawal.

This plan flips that principle: it demands disarmament before Israel leaves, stripping Lebanon of rights the UN Charter itself protects.

Disarming before liberation isn’t “sovereignty.”
It’s surrender, signed, sealed, & gift-wrapped for the occupier.

What’s missing from this US plan?

❌ No binding guarantee Israel stops its daily air, sea & land violations before disarmament.
❌ No enforcement mechanism if Israel refuses withdrawal.
❌ No timeline for ending occupation of Shebaa Farms & Kfarshouba Hills.
❌ No plan to arm the Lebanese Army to a credible defensive level.

Sovereignty without defense isn’t sovereignty, it’s surrender.

📜 “Violation Consequences,” straight from the US-backed plan:
•Lebanon: Military aid frozen, sanctions imposed.
•Israel: A “report” to the UN Security Council.

Translation: If Lebanon missteps, it bleeds. If Israel missteps, it gets a politely worded letter.

💰 “Diplomatic Incentives,” the carrot with a choke chain:
•Lebanese Army: Dangled ~$150M/year in US aid + a conditional $1B donor package for gear & internal security , valid for only 10 years, & only if Hezbollah is dismantled north & south.
•Israel: Gets billions annually in US military aid ($3.8B guaranteed + wartime bonuses) & strategic security guarantees from US/France, no strings attached, no expiry date.

🇱🇧 Lebanon: Gets economic aid, IMF help, private investment, but only after meeting the political & security terms dictated by Washington/Riyadh.

🇮🇱 Israel: Keeps its guarantees regardless of whether it stops violations.

This is definitely not “mutual security,” but a leverage scheme.

Bottom line:
Lebanon is being told: Disarm first, trust later.
Israel is being told: Do whatever, you’re covered.

They pretend it’s peace-building, when in fact it’s financial blackmail in disguise.

And this, ladies & gentlemen, every unbalanced clause, every loaded condition, is what our lackey leaders just signed up for.

Not surprising, since both were parachuted into their posts, & appointed to deliver this very moment.
The ink isn’t even dry, & it’s already payback time.

⚠️ Everyone asking “what now?” needs to think about how this would even be enforced. You can’t dismantle the country’s most powerful armed group without either sparking civil strife or fracturing the army. Hezbollah will not hand over weapons before Israel fulfills its obligations & if forced, the risk isn’t “political fallout.” It’s war. Hezbollah is acutely aware of the dangers of internal strife & has no intention of triggering or being dragged into one & the other side knows it too.