Thread by @OldMoneySecret

This Nobel Prize winner spent 44+ years proving that you're not in control of your decisions.

He exposed a hidden pattern that governs human behavior called "game theory."

Once you see it, you can't unsee it.

And you'll question every decision you've ever made. 🧵

Meet John Nash.

In 1950, at age 22, he wrote a 28-page PhD thesis that would change everything.

But there was a problem, Nash was developing schizophrenia and barely spoke to anyone.

Yet his mathematical discovery became the foundation for predicting human behavior...

Nash discovered something called "equilibrium."

It's the point where no one can improve their situation by changing their strategy, if everyone else stays the same.

Sounds boring?

This formula now controls how you shop, what you watch, and even who you date.

Here's how it works in real life:

You approach a traffic light. Red means stop, green means go.

Why? Because you know other drivers follow the same rule.

Nobody benefits from changing this strategy alone.

That's Nash Equilibrium, and it's everywhere.

Ever wonder why Coca-Cola and Pepsi cost almost exactly the same?

Nash Equilibrium.

If Coke drops prices, Pepsi must follow. If Pepsi raises prices, they lose customers.

So both stay locked at the same price, unable to move without losing money.

But here's where it gets dark...

Companies realized they could use Nash's formula to trap you in bad decisions.

The weapon? Something called the "sunk cost fallacy."

And once you see how they're using it, you'll be furious...

The sunk cost fallacy makes you continue something because you've already invested time, money, or effort.

Even when quitting would be smarter.

Nash proved this mathematically, and companies turned it into a profit machine.

Spotify perfected this manipulation:

Free tier: Deliberately terrible (6 skips per hour, ads every 3 songs)

Premium: $9.99/month for "relief" from artificial pain

Result: 246 million users, 90% of revenue from premium

They're not selling music, they're selling escape from frustration they created.

This is called "Demand Through Inconvenience."

Research shows: The more you enjoy the free service, the LESS likely you are to upgrade.

So companies make free versions just annoying enough to push you toward payment.

Brilliant? Yes. Ethical? You decide.

Nash himself described the personal cost:

"I was in a Ph.D. program and realized I wasn't happy in this field, but stuck with it due to fear of confronting the sunk cost of four to five years."

Even the guy who discovered this fell victim to it.

Nash's most famous discovery: The Prisoner's Dilemma.

Two players, two choices: Cooperate or Cheat.

Both cooperate: $2 each

Both cheat: $0 each

One cheats, one cooperates: Cheater gets $3, cooperator loses $1

Rationally, you should ALWAYS cheat. The result? Both lose.

But Nash proved something amazing: In repeated games, cooperation wins.

The optimal strategy has four rules:

Be Nice: Cooperate first
Be Strong: Retaliate against cheaters
Be Forgiving: Return to cooperation quickly
Be Clear: Be predictable, not random

This beats pure selfishness every time.

Advanced applications for entrepreneurs:

1. Create positive sunk costs: Make customers invest time/effort in your platform

2. Design cooperative equilibriums: Win-win partnerships beat zero-sum competition

3. Use commitment devices: Help customers stick to beneficial behaviors

Master these, and you're using Nash's formula ethically.

The real lesson?

Understanding these patterns gives you power.

You can spot manipulation and use these principles ethically in your own business and relationships.

Thanks for reading, If you liked it,

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