Contrarian Capital Profile picture
Aug 9 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
$UNH was just cleared by the DOJ to acquire Amedisys in a $3.3B transaction. This is a HUGE deal.

If you are one of the many people who've never heard of Amedisys before, here's who they are and what they do. 🧵 👇 Image
Amedisys is a home based healthcare provider, providing hospice, palliative, and other care right at patients' homes. It was founded in 1982, and has since grown into one of the largest health care provider networks in the US. They care for nearly half a milion patients yearly. Image
Notably, Amedisys maintains $UNH standard of very high quality care- 95% of their centers had 4 or more stars, way above national averages. Their network is also vast:110,000 physicians across nearly 3,000 hospitals refer patients to Amedisys, across 39 states. Image
As part of the deal, amidst antitrust concerns, $UNH will divest from 164 home health and hospice locations. Although not ideal, gaining access to Amedisys' large network and trusted brand is well worth the price tag.
Let's talk numbers: Amedisys ($AMED) put up 2.4B in revenue and 245.8M adjusted EBITDA in 2024, and thus $UNH is valuing them at just 13.4 x adjusted EBITDA.

This is an even better deal when you consider that savings/efficiency gains from $UNH's vertically integrated network will increase earnings even further.

(note: their non-adjusted EBITDA numbers are heavily impacted by merger costs, and are about half of adjusted EBITDA)Image
I've been very bullish on $UNH and this further reinforces that thesis. Their vertical integration, prioretary data, and sheer scale provide a better moat than any other company in the business.

There is perhaps no other business in the world that is so integral to the industry they work in.Image
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More from @longoption

Aug 12
$UNH just dropped their 10Q- a form that breaks down company performance over the previous quarter and management's views for the coming future.

Taking the time to read and understand forms like this is how you beat the market over time. Let's jump in and see what we can learn: Image
Firstly, the 10Q confirmed what we already know from listening to the earnings call:

Top line continues to grow, coming in at $111.6B for the quarter, an incredible number.

Bottom line took a hit, as we know. Earnings were down 35%, and came in at 5.15B for the quarter. Image
We learne that medical cost pressures are broad based, rather than due to any one thing. Patients are seeing more doctors in outpatient visits, there's more unit costs and intensity, and the mix of patients was more expensive than originally forcast.

It isn't any one thing: healthcare is just more expensive.

Management acknowledges that they mispriced insurance for the current year. They note that their assumptions were "well short" of trend, which explains the divergence between top and bottom line.Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11
$TTD was once a wall street darling, but they're most recently in investors' newsfeeds for a massive 35+% drop after earnings.

As a contrarian investor, this has me salivating like a fat kid in a candy shop. Here's what my DD has found so far 🧵 👇 Image
Firstly- this most recent drop is just the latest in a series of beatings for a fantastic company that is down over 50% YTD.

$TTD is down over 60% from its ATH of 141.53, and has gained just 16.5% over the past FIVE YEARS. Image
Image
Scary numbers like this ALWAYS raise the question: is this a broken stock or a broken business?

The data shows that $TTD has compounded revenue and net income both at nearly 30% over the past five years, an absolutely crazy rate for a company like this. Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
$UNH has a secret weapon that makes them the most important health insurance company in the entire country, and almost no one understands it. 🧵👇 Image
We've heard a lot about how insurance providers have to reprice their offerings in the coming year to reduce their Medical Loss Ratios (MLRs).

This repricing will need, at its core, really solid data analysis to make accurate projections. The key to the success of the entire industry rests in this data and the way it is used.

Enter Optum Insights.Image
Optum insights offers data analytics, software services, advisory/consulting services, and more to insurance companies, healthcare providers, life sciences companies, and to the US government. They can help providers bill more effectively, and they can help insurance companies model costs and project what kind of prices they will need in the future.
Read 7 tweets

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