1. I've said exactly this for quite some time. Expanding on Adrian's point here, Covid-19 has three distinct characteristics as a disease that enables it to be denied at a societal level.
2. First, none of its symptoms trigger the human disgust mechanism. Adrian gives a great example of this. The two key symptoms that distinguish Covid-19 from other common diseases are cognitive dysfunction and anosmia, both of which are *invisible* to other people.
3. In simulations I took part in long before the Covid-19 pandemic, diseases with symptoms that triggered the human disgust mechanism - symptoms such as disfigurement, vomiting, incontinence, bleeding, and convulsive syncope - were most likely to cause people to avoid infection.
4. Second, unlike other common diseases, Covid-19 is not generalisable. That is to say, unlike the common cold, influenza, or norovirus, one person's experience of the disease cannot be relied upon to accurately predict another's.
5. For example, if you're unfortunate enough to get norovirus, and then a month later a friend of yours gets it, you can describe to your friend exactly what his or her disease course is going to be like with a high degree of accuracy, based on your own experience.
6. Likewise with flu or the common cold. This is absolutely not the case with Covid-19. The wide spectrum of symptoms and severity of the disease means it is not easily generalisable in this regard. Just because 'it's the sniffles' to you does not mean it will be for your friend.
7. This inability to generalise the experience of Covid-19 sets it apart from other common diseases, and also, more profoundly, from our shared sociological understanding of how diseases operate in society. Fundamentally, one person's experience of the disease is not predictive.
8. This sets the scene for the disconnect we see across society today; because we are so used to being able to predict another's experience of a disease on the basis of our own experience of it, there is a constant, flawed, and ever-present societal assumption that Covid is mild.
9. Third, in my own experience, people do not understand Long Covid. They have a fixed view of it that can be summed up as 'severe symptoms that do not resolve'. It is also seen as rare, which is why I know people with Long Covid who don't know they have Long Covid.
10. In addition, the vast majority of people are not accustomed to viewing acute diseases as risk factors. Most people don't grasp that a cardiovascular event could be triggered by a mild bout of Covid-19 they had three months previously, for example.
11. These three factors: lack of triggering the human disgust mechanism, inability to be generalised, and lack of widespread understanding of sequelae of infection all contribute to the societal denial of the dangers of Covid-19.
/end
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1. Sometimes, the absurdity of the situation we're all in just hits me. Going forward, ongoing and continuous transmission of SARS-CoV-2 will lead to an ever-increasing percentage of the global population developing chronic illnesses due to sequelae of infection.
2. Simultaneously, the immune dysregulation effect of infection will continue to create opportunities for other pathogens to infect, disable, and kill. One of those pathogens might well start the next pandemic.
3. In many countries, politics and the institutionalisation of anti-vax and pro-infection ideologies are actually encouraging this outcome. This is, to the best of my knowledge, unprecedented in human history: Humanity being overtly on the side of the virus, basically.
1. As a result of the current high prevalence of influenza and the accompanying media coverage of the spread of the disease, I've been asked about mitigations by a number of friends who take *no precautions against SARS-CoV-2*. A few observations regarding these conversations:
2. Very few people understand just how vastly more effective an FFP2 / KN95 respirator is versus a blue surgical mask. Interestingly, the fact that Boots (a UK pharmacy chain) actually sells own-brand FFP2s is a convincing point for some people: the power of a trusted brand.
3. The false binary nature of influenza vaccination is also obvious in these conversations. Some people seem to have difficulty with the fact that vaccination significantly reduces risk of infection and severe disease, but does not necessarily eliminate it.
1. The growing prevalence of H3N2 subclade K influenza - the strain driving this year's flu season - combined with the increasing prevalence of H5N1 and now H5N5 (I doubt the WA fatality is the sole human case) is a dangerous recipe for reassortment.
2. Influenza surveillance at the federal level in the US has been drastically reduced as a result of the current administration's very unwise budget cuts; human cases of H5N1 and potentially H5N5 are very likely not being detected.
3. As such, the first warning the US could have should a new, severe influenza strain emerge as a result of a reassortment event could well be an emergency room suddenly full of patients in acute respiratory distress.
1. I never think that the people at events I attend who aren't mitigating (which in Northern Ireland is essentially everyone) are clueless, careless, or useless. I actively like seeing people experiencing joy, although I am often concerned for them.
2. The broader point here is that I think it is deeply unhelpful to adopt a quasi-Manichean view of the world dividing people solely by whether they mitigate or not; life is infinitely more complex than that. The world is full of very good people who don't mask.
3. Likewise, there are people who mitigate purely out of self-interest and are not particularly good people in other aspects of life. Also, because so few people mask, feeling contempt for those people is very close to misanthropy. Masking is not the sole indicator of morality.
1. My background is in CBRN defense. I was involved in the field long before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2.
I used to essentially discount comments on social media - especially this platform - as fringe, not representative of the real world. Sadly, this is no longer the case.
2. The current US administration communicates, and arguably governs, through social media. This means that comments on this platform from Americans can no longer be discounted as simply bots; they are representative of the views of a significant proportion of the US population.
3. With that in mind, let me be very, very clear.
The mainstreaming of anti-vax ideology and the disregard and vilification of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, has rendered the US more vulnerable to biological attack than at any time in its history.
1. Fundamentally, a significant part of what I do is the prediction of both the behaviour of pathogens in the future and our likely collective response to future pathogenic threats. I have an excellent track record in this regard for two main reasons:
2. First, while I recognise the enormous value of quantitative data - and it *is* incredibly valuable - qualitative data is often overlooked by other individuals and organisations in this space.
3. Small outbreaks of unknown diseases are often not picked up in surveillance data; sometimes they appear and disappear in one discrete location, seen as an anomaly by an individual healthcare professional.
*All outbreaks of novel diseases begin as anomalies*.