Convequity Profile picture
Aug 18 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Rare earths don’t get much attention in AI debates.

But they power everything physical about AI: drones, EVs, robots, advanced weapons.

And one US company is building the entire supply chain — from mine to magnet.

$MP (MP Materials) could be foundational. 🧵
MP Materials is the only US firm that spans the full stack:

✅ Rare earth mining
✅ Oxide separation
✅ Metal production
✅ Finished magnet manufacturing

China dominates 90% of this. MP is bringing it back onshore.
The US government and Apple are already backing them.

→ $500m+ magnet supply deal with Apple
→ Strategic investment and price guarantees from the DoD
→ ~$2bn in cash to scale downstream production

This is industrial policy with teeth.
Why it matters:

Permanent magnets are in almost everything that moves intelligently.

– EV drivetrains
– AI-powered robots
– Drones and missiles
– Wind turbines
– AR/VR headsets and smartphones

No magnets, no Physical AI.
By 2035, the global "Physical AI" economy could reach $6–7 trillion.

If just 5% of that is magnet-related, that’s a $325–375bn annual market.

If $MP captures 10–15%, it could be doing $30–50bn in revenue.
Today, $MP’s market cap is around $13bn.

If it executes, scales, and earns a 5x sales multiple on $50bn revenue...

That’s a potential $250bn valuation.

A 20x return over the long run — with national security at its back.
Rare earths aren’t just a supply chain story.

They’re a lever of geopolitical power — and a core input to the next industrial era.

$MP is quietly positioning itself as America’s champion.

We’re watching closely.
Chart is from Koyfin. Image
For a 15% discount with Koyfin, click the link:
koyfin.com/affiliate/conv…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Convequity

Convequity Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @convequity

Apr 18
1/
Zuckerberg hasn’t said a word about this.

But Meta ( $META) might be sitting on one of the most overlooked growth levers in all of tech.

It could reshape the future of advertising and knock Google ( $GOOGL) from its pole position — and hardly anyone is talking about it.
🧵 Image
Image
2/
Meta already has one of the best ad engines in the world. Billions of engagement signals across Reels, Stories, Feed.

But conversational AI changes the game:
Instead of inferring interest, Meta AI can capture intent — in real time, through chat.
3/
Example:
User tells Meta AI they’re training for a marathon.
AI replies with nutrition tips, pacing advice... and a few shoe recommendations.

The shoes can be bought right there in the chat.
That’s not an ad. That’s a native, helpful, high-converting sales rep.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 19
Why AI Agents Could Reshape Enterprise Economics

1/
AI agents promise to both reduce the input resources needed for back-office tasks and expand output in revenue-generating roles.

In other words, fewer inputs for the same output, and higher output for the same inputs. Let’s see what that does to profit.
2/
Baseline Profit
P0 = R - (M + N + O)

R: baseline revenue
M: cost of revenue-focused employees
N: cost of non-revenue employees
O: other costs
3/
After AI Agents

Let's estimate:

Revenue doubles (2× increase)
Non-revenue costs drop to one-third (3× reduction)

New Profit
P1 = 2R - (N/3 + M + O)
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16
The AI Value Chain

AI is reshaping industries, but to power this revolution, a vast value chain is forming.

From raw materials to AI agents, here’s where the biggest investment opportunities lie. 🚀👇
1/ Mining Materials:

Before AI models can run, we need materials to power the infrastructure:

🟠 Copper → Essential for AI data centers, EVs, and humanoid robotics. Key players: $BHP (BHP Billiton), $RIO(Rio Tinto), & $GLEN (Glencore).

⚛️ Uranium → AI’s electricity demands will drive nuclear energy growth. Key players: $CCJ (Cameco), $UEC (Uranium Energy Corp), $NXE (NexGen Energy)

🔋 Lithium → AI needs battery storage at data centers & edge devices. Key players: $ALB (Albemarle), $SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera)
2/ Power Distribution:

AI data centers consume 10–50x more power than traditional ones. Who benefits?

⚡ Transmission & distribution upgrades → Power grid modernization. Key players: $NEE (NextEra Energy), $DUK (Duke Energy)

🔋 Battery storage solutions → Smoothing AI-driven demand surges. Key players: $TSLA (Tesla - Megapacks), $ENPH (Enphase Energy)
Read 17 tweets
Dec 17, 2024
1/5 AI apps will disrupt enterprise SaaS.

The traditional model of building software is about to be upended.

What does this mean for existing SaaS companies? Most SaaS apps are just CRUD databases with business logic on top. But AI agents can replace human-coded logic, rendering this model obsolete. The implications are huge.
2/5 AI agents can access multiple database backends without bias, leveling the playing field for new entrants. Existing SaaS moats will disappear, making it harder for companies to defend their market share. As AI takes over the logic layer, backend systems will be replaced with AI-native architectures. This will pave the way for a new wave of innovation and disruption in the SaaS industry.
3/5 Microsoft $MSFT is already preparing for this shift. As CEO Satya Nadella noted, "business applications will collapse in the AI era... they are essentially CRUD databases with business logic, but the logic will shift to AI agents." This isn't just about SaaS companies. The rise of AI agents will change the way we work with software. Imagine having a personal assistant that can help you with tasks across multiple applications.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 11, 2024
Everyone’s talking about how platforms like $MNDY (monday) are the future of work management, but there’s one big gap holding them back from becoming true enterprise powerhouses.

Let’s dive into what it takes for MNDY to evolve into a system of record (SOR) like $CRM (Salesforce) or $SAP. 🧵👇
Legacy systems like Salesforce, $ORCL (Oracle), and $WDAY (Workday) are entrenched because they serve as SOR — the gold standard for validated, reliable business data.

MNDY? Not quite there yet.

Here’s why platforms like MNDY aren’t SORs today — and why it matters.
SORs ensure accuracy through integrations, validation rules, and audit trails.

They’re where companies store authoritative data like financials, sales pipelines, and employee records.

But $MNDY relies on manual input — project deadlines, costs, or even sales data can be prone to errors. 🤔
Read 10 tweets
Jan 31, 2023
A revisit of the $PANW valuation exercise.

$CHKP, $ZS, & $CRWD are the perfect weighted peer group to compare to PANW. On aggregate the peer group matches well in terms of rev & FCF.

For those not interested in the details, just monitor the mkt caps. For more detail, carry on
You can see the revenue of $PANW & the total of the peer group are quite close.

Th revenue-weighted P/S divided by growth estimate for the peer group is 0.83. For $PANW it is 0.40.

So, on a forward revenue basis PANW is trading at half the price of the peer group.
Additionally, you can see the FCF of $PANW & the total of the peer group is quite similar.

The FCF-weighted P/FCF for the peer group 2.26. For PANW it is 0.94.

So on a forward FCF basis PANW is trading at half the price of the peer group.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(