Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk

Starvation in Gaza has been building for months.

The Famine Review Committee conclusion on famine is compelling (more on that below).

Principal responsibility lies with Israeli aid obstruction - but failure of US & Europe to use *any* real leverage on this is also stunning.
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https://twitter.com/theIPCinfo/status/1958825701785702622

The evidence for a declaration is persuasive.

There has been evidence of severe food deprivation going back to last year, mainly due to Israeli restrictions.

It got exponentially worse from March '25 onward, after Israel instituted an aid blockade that it has yet to fully lift.

Malnutrition evidence is also solid, notwithstanding the armchair experts who misread the IPC thresholds.

Say it with me: a MUAC level over 15% is IPC famine territory.

Moreover the rate is continuing to rise to even grimmer levels.

My thread last night addressed the bad-faith argument that using a 15% MUAC threshold is somehow moving the goalposts.

It's not. It's well in line with IPC guidance.

If someone is pushing this line, they're ignorant or just lying.

https://x.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1958745394411606045

There will no doubt be pushback on the mortality evidence, which leans on the conclusion that non-trauma mortality is being heavily under-reported.

Having dealt with famine and famine risk before, I think the mortality conclusion is reasonable for a few reasons:

First, we know people *are* now dying of starvation daily. There are consistent reports and rates have risen sharply since June.

That is an extremely bad sign. Under-reporting is plausible since many die outside of the health system, or in areas with no mortality surveillance.

Second, we also know it's impossible to obtain mortality data in the most inaccessible parts of N. Gaza, where conditions are likely the worst.

So whatever we are seeing in the accessible areas is likely a microcosm of much worse conditions further north.

Third, we know from past famines that mortality figures tend to lag.

Awaiting definitive mortality data before issuing a declaration risks consigning more to starve.

In Somalia/2011 half of those who died did so before a declaration was issued.

We must not repeat that mistake.

So - what now?

It is imperative that professional humanitarians of the UN and NGOs be allowed to do their jobs.

They can't at the moment because Israel (while pulling out all the stops for their bullshit GHF debacle) is still hampering real aid work at every turn.

Only a handful of famines have been formally declared this century. Famine is totally preventable…unless someone does not want to prevent it.

Every country in the world with any leverage at all over Israel must deploy it with full force now, or they too are complicit.

What needs to happen? A standard, comprehensive famine response operation:

- Appropriate food aid
- Nutrition interventions
- Clean water & sanitation
- Health care to prevent deaths from complications
- Shelter and protection for the displaced

There's no mystery here.

If humanitarians have the space and safety to do their jobs, they can turn this calamity around.

If not, famine will gain ever greater momentum, become ever harder to contain, and kill ever rising numbers of people.

The Israeli government has created the conditions that produced this famine. And they have shown repeatedly that they only pull back their restrictions in the face of intense international pressure.

Which brings us back to those who have leverage over Israel.

When I was in govt, we would often say: no famines on our watch.

This is a famine on Trump's watch. A famine on von der Leyen’s watch. And Starmer's. And Merz's.

That shame will follow them forever. This is reversible - but only if they have the political will to reverse it.

Quick addendum:

https://x.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1958880398777213394