Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk

I'm getting a lot of questions about this (false) claim, so let's do a wonky deep dive on how willfully wrong @Israel is on this.

Right off the top: this is the EXACT SAME THRESHOLD that was used in the Sudan famine declaration last year.

Not any lowering of the bar for Gaza.

https://twitter.com/Israel/status/1958829670146691426

The MUAC threshold is used in cases like Sudan or Gaza where access is limited and full weight-for-height studies are not feasible.

Here is the relevant portion of the Dec 2024 famine analysis for Sudan, using the same MUAC >15% threshold. ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user…

IPC guidance very explicitly allows for these two approaches to assessing Global Acute Malnutrition in a population:

- weight-for-height analysis
and
- mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) screening

MUAC is used when access constraints prevent a full weight-for-height survey.

Because they measure different physical characteristics, weight-for-height and MUAC often manifest at different levels within the same population.

A lower MUAC usually equates to a higher weight-for-height GAM. Hence the different thresholds of 15% and 30%.

In famine scenarios, MUAC screening can actually be more useful at ID'ing at-risk individuals.

It reflects depletion of fat and muscle, rather than overall BMI (which can skew in individuals based on other factors). MUAC thus more effectively pinpoints kids at risk of mortality.

The MUAC threshold is used routinely in famine analysis when a representative weight-for-height survey is not possible.

In addition to Sudan/2024, this method was used in the South Sudan/2020 declaration as well. ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user…

So contra Israel's claims, the methodology in the Gaza famine declaration is fully:

- in line with established IPC guidance
- consistent with the threshold in other prior famine declarations

This is not a good-faith misread. It is a campaign of concerted disinfo.

Shameful.