Megharaj Kavalur Profile picture
Aug 24 โ€ข 12 tweets โ€ข 3 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐—”๐—ฐ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—ฆ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ โ€“ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎโ€™๐˜€ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡
One of Indiaโ€™s largest Independent Power Producers (IPP) and among the Top 10 renewable players.
A deep dive into business model, capacity, financials & valuations Image
1/ Business Model & Moat
โ–ช Integrated structure with inhouse EPC + O&M provides:
โ€“ Lower execution costs
โ€“ Superior EBITDA margins/MW
โ€“ Reduced vendor dependency

โ–ช 25-year PPAs with central/state entities ensure long-term cash flow visibility.
2/ Portfolio Snapshot (Q1FY26)
โ–ช Operational: 2,890 MW (+115% YoY)
โ–ช Under Construction: 4,080 MW + 550 MWh BESS
โ–ช LOA/Awarded: 1,840 MW
โ–ช Contracted Portfolio: 6,970 MW + 550 MWh BESS

๐ŸŽฏ Target โ†’ 10 GW capacity + 15 GWh BESS by 2030
3/ Operational Momentum
โ–ช 350 MW commissioned in Q1FY26 (incl. 50 MW maiden wind project in Gujarat).
โ–ช Signed PPAs for 550 MW solar & FDRE + 550 MWh standalone BESS.
โ–ช Ordered 3.1 GWh+ BESS from global suppliers.
โ–ช SECI ISTS projects (4 ร— 300 MW) received CRISIL AA-/Stable rating.
4/ Financial Performance โ€“ Q1FY26
๐Ÿ“Š YoY comparison vs Q1FY25:
โ–ช Revenue: โ‚น584 Cr (+71.8%)
โ–ช EBITDA: โ‚น531 Cr (+75.7%) | Margin ~90.9%
โ–ช PAT: โ‚น131 Cr (vs โ‚น1 Cr last year)
โ–ช Generation: 1,636 MUs (+107%)

๐Ÿ’ก Strong improvement on operating leverage + CUF.
5/ Balance Sheet & Liquidity
โ–ช Gross Block: โ‚น15,296 Cr (+โ‚น6,740 Cr YoY).
โ–ช Net Worth: โ‚น4,647 Cr (+139% YoY).
โ–ช Net Debt: โ‚น7,842 Cr.
โ–ช Net Debt / Net Worth: 1.7x (vs 3.9x YoY).
โ–ช DSO improved from 181 days (FY23) โ†’ 36 days (Q1FY26).

๐Ÿ‘‰ 86% portfolio with central offtakers โ†’ lowering receivable risks.
6/ Growth Projections (Nuvama Est.)
FY25E โ†’ Rev: โ‚น1,342 Cr, PAT: โ‚น213 Cr
FY27E โ†’ Rev: โ‚น4,436 Cr, PAT: โ‚น745 Cr

๐Ÿ“ˆ CAGR FY25โ€“27E:
โ–ช Revenue: 82%
โ–ช PAT: 87%
7/ Valuations vs Peer (EV/Sales)
๐Ÿ”น Adani Green: FY25E 24ร— | FY26E 18.2ร—
๐Ÿ”น Acme Solar: FY25E 14.2ร— | FY26E 10.4ร—

Even at a 25% discount to peers โ†’ Fair Value โ‚น381 (~32% upside).
8/ Street View โ€“ Nuvama Coverage
โ–ช Rating: BUY
โ–ช Target Price: โ‚น328
โ–ช Upside: ~70%
9/ Strategic Expansion
โ–ช Accelerating โ‚น17,000 Cr capex for additional 3.5 GW.
โ–ช Benefiting from falling module & input costs.
โ–ช Strong focus on BESS โ†’ positioning as Indiaโ€™s leading renewable + storage IPP.
10/ Investment Thesis
โ€“ Integrated model: cost efficiency & margin edge
โ€“ Capacity ramp-up: visibility to 7 GW by FY28
โ€“ Financial turnaround: PAT positive, strong CUF
โ€“ Valuation comfort: trades at discount to Adani Green

๐Ÿ“Œ Acme Solar is shaping up as a high-growth, cost-advantaged, debt-reducing renewable play.
๐Ÿ‘‰Follow @megharaj_g_k

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