Thread by @Andric1961

Putin has 3 famous allies in Europe: The most powerful is Viktor Orban in Hungary, followed by Robert Fico in Slovakia. The most loyal of all though is Milorad Dodik, a Serb from Bosnia. He has completely tied his political fate to Putin. But his days in power might be over.⬇️

Unlike Putin, Dodik is not a war criminal. There are no records involving him in crimes in the 1992-1995 Bosnian war. But after a “pro-western” beginning, he has made a political business out of associating with Serbian war criminals Karadzic and Mladic.
reuters.com/world/europe/b…

At the same time, Dodik is systematically undermining Bosnia-Hercegovina, the only framework within which his “Republika Srpska” (RS) is legally recognized. But he might have gone too far. Putin’s asset in the Balkans is at risk of becoming worthless.
freiheit.org/western-balkan…

Dodik, who until recently was the president of the RS, is the longest-serving ruler in the Balkans. From various offices, he has been the most powerful representative of the Serbs in Bosnia since the late 1990s, initially with strong US support.
1997-2001.state.gov/statements/200…

The reason his time might be over is Dodiks power struggle against the High Representative (HR) of the international community for Bosnia, former German minister of agriculture Christian Schmidt. In July 2023, using his neo-colonial powers, Schmidt signed a momentous decree:

Since then, disregarding Schmidt’s decrees is punishable by up to five years in prison. There are no legal means of appeal against a decree of the HR within Bosnia itself. A decree by the HR is like a word of God. (Yes, this is Europe in 2025).
faz.net/aktuell/politi…

As a result, Dodik, who has systematically undermined Bosnia for years, was charged by the judiciary in Sarajevo for contempt of Schmidt’s decrees and sentenced in February at first instance and in August with a binding verdict to one year in prison.
balkaninsight.com/2025/08/01/bos…

Before, Dodik had initiated a law according to which the Bosnian Constitutional Court should have no jurisdiction whatsoever in the half of the country he controls. An unconstitutional law. Schmidt annulled it by decree, but Dodik ignored this and went on.
balkaninsight.com/2023/06/28/bos…

However, prison sentences of up to one year can be avoided in Bosnia by paying a fine. Which is what Dodik chose to do. He paid roughly 19,000 euros to the court - but he could not buy his way out of another element of the verdict:
europeanwesternbalkans.com/2025/08/13/the…

The judges banned Dodik from holding public office for six years. As a result of this, the Bosnian election commission (CEC) stripped Dodik of his office as RS-president. Dodik, however, refuses to recognize this. He pretends he still is president.
edition.cnn.com/2025/08/09/eur…

“What are they going to do? Roll up with tanks and forbid me from entering the government building?” Dodik had sarcastically asked during a similar conflict 15 years ago. And indeed, the Schmidt does not have his own police force, let alone tanks, to enforce his decrees.

So far, Bosnia’s police have not dared to arrest Dodik. The reason usually given: He is surrounded by a heavily armed escort. Any attempt to arrest him could end in a bloodbath. (What does this say about the sustainability of the Bosnia as a state?)
euronews.com/my-europe/2025…

Although a national arrest warrant had long been in place, Dodik even could leave Bosnia without hindrance in April to meet Putin in Moscow. Afterwards, he returned just as freely to Banja Luka. So, what next?
themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/01/put…

Dodik has announced a referendum in the RS for October 25. Over the past years, he has often announced referenda, just to then quietly call them off. This time, however, it is about his political survival. If Dodik does not win this battle, he is finished.
vreme.com/en/vesti/refer…

The referendum question: "Do you accept the decisions of the unelected foreigner Christian Schmidt and the unconstitutional judgments of the BiH Court pronounced against the RS President, as well as the decision of the CEC to revoke the mandate of the RS President Milorad Dodik?"

In another announced referendum, the question about a possible secession of the RS from Bosnia might be asked. Bosnia’s Constitutional Court and Schmidt are likely to declare such referenda unconstitutional. But what if Dodik ignores that as well?

Legally, Dodik would now have to relinquish his office in favor of an interim president appointed by the RS parliament, before elections (without Dodik’s participation) would be held in 90 days. Dodik refuses this. He wants to remain in office.

But he is weakened – also because his hope for support from the Trump camp in the US has so far not materialized, even though Dodik invested a lot of RS-taxpayers’ money in US lobbyists. He even brought New York’s former mayor Rudy Giuliani to Banja Luka.
n1info.ba/english/news/r…

He also recently met Trump’s special envoy Richard Grenell, of whom it is said in the Balkans that he is never far when corruption is near, in Montenegro. But to no avail. Trump did not even lift the sanctions imposed against Dodik in Joe Biden´s time.
monitor.co.me/grenells-unoff…

Maybe the cash-strapped RS simply does not have enough money to successfully buy influence for Dodik in Washington. Instead of supporting Dodik, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio even publicly rebuked him in March:

https://x.com/SecRubio/status/1898180490869588305?lang=de

If things go badly, Dodik might end up having to rely on Viktor Orbán, who has already offered asylum to other fallen Balkan autocrats, like Nikola Gruevski from Macedonia. On the other hand, do not understimated Dodik´s survival skills.

https://x.com/Andric1961/status/1281953361135370240

Dodiks unconstitutional behavior aside, the proposed referendum question does have a point: Schmidt is indeed an “unelected foreigner” heading a neo-colonial institution with zero democratic credibility. Should this be Bosnia´s future? For more, check FAZ:
faz.net/aktuell/politi…