FPL Gameweek 3 🧵
Weekly guide to make your life easier
• Cunha vs Mbeumo: Who’s the better finisher...
• ... and does it even matter?
• Yeremy Pino: Soon-to-be Crystal Palace number 10
• Palmer & Saka injured: Could Ismaïla Sarr be the solution?
Let’s dive straight in:
Weekly guide to make your life easier
• Cunha vs Mbeumo: Who’s the better finisher...
• ... and does it even matter?
• Yeremy Pino: Soon-to-be Crystal Palace number 10
• Palmer & Saka injured: Could Ismaïla Sarr be the solution?
Let’s dive straight in:
As always, remember to bookmark and share this 👆
It only takes a few seconds
And it makes up for me having to write about Manchester United players
(when on vacation)
Anyway, let’s do this:
It only takes a few seconds
And it makes up for me having to write about Manchester United players
(when on vacation)
Anyway, let’s do this:
🔶 Cunha vs Mbeumo: Who’s the better finisher?
Yesterday, I noticed someone on X claiming that the main reason for picking Mbeumo over Cunha is that he’s a better finisher
And I was like, oh no, not this one again
Also, it’s amusing because we discuss the two biggest...
Yesterday, I noticed someone on X claiming that the main reason for picking Mbeumo over Cunha is that he’s a better finisher
And I was like, oh no, not this one again
Also, it’s amusing because we discuss the two biggest...
... xG overperformers of the last season:
• Matheus Cunha: 8.63 non-penalty expected goals, 15 actual non-penalty goals
• Bryan Mbeumo: 7.53 np xG, 15 np goals
As the sample size of one season tells you nothing about either player’s finishing ability, we need to dig deeper
• Matheus Cunha: 8.63 non-penalty expected goals, 15 actual non-penalty goals
• Bryan Mbeumo: 7.53 np xG, 15 np goals
As the sample size of one season tells you nothing about either player’s finishing ability, we need to dig deeper
Bryan Mbeumo in the Premier League, including last season:
• 32.25 xG and 32 goals over 12,264 minutes
Let’s add his Championship spell:
• 16 xG and 23 goals over 6,365 minutes
In total, it’s 48 xG and 55 goals over the last 6 seasons
• 32.25 xG and 32 goals over 12,264 minutes
Let’s add his Championship spell:
• 16 xG and 23 goals over 6,365 minutes
In total, it’s 48 xG and 55 goals over the last 6 seasons
Matheus Cunha in the Premier League, including last season:
• 19.33 xG and 28 goals over the 6,650 minutes
Let’s add his Hertha and Atletico Madrid spells:
• 18 xG and 18 goals over the 5,140 mins
In total, it’s 37 xG and 46 goals
Based on those numbers, you can’t really...
• 19.33 xG and 28 goals over the 6,650 minutes
Let’s add his Hertha and Atletico Madrid spells:
• 18 xG and 18 goals over the 5,140 mins
In total, it’s 37 xG and 46 goals
Based on those numbers, you can’t really...
... tell which of those two is a better finisher
Mbeumo’s sample size is larger, but that doesn’t matter here, as both are double-digit, so more than sufficient
Unless you observed the biomechanics of a significant sample size of their shots and scrutinised every...
Mbeumo’s sample size is larger, but that doesn’t matter here, as both are double-digit, so more than sufficient
Unless you observed the biomechanics of a significant sample size of their shots and scrutinised every...
... goalkeeper safe, it’s impossible to tell
And I guarantee you that the person who made that claim has not done this kind of research
Anyway, there’s a much more important lesson to learn than discovering that both... can finish well, ehm
❗ The lesson is: It doesn’t matter
And I guarantee you that the person who made that claim has not done this kind of research
Anyway, there’s a much more important lesson to learn than discovering that both... can finish well, ehm
❗ The lesson is: It doesn’t matter
❗ Lesson #2: Look at the sample sizes of minutes, and the number of xG/goals both players produced—yeah, Cunha is someone who offers more goal threat
He can get himself into more dangerous goal-scoring opportunities
Both are good creators with a great vision for the final pass
He can get himself into more dangerous goal-scoring opportunities
Both are good creators with a great vision for the final pass
But Cunha is a more natural goal-scorer
Therefore, to conclude, Bryan Mbeumo isn’t visibly a better finisher than Cunha
If at all
And no, finishing ability shouldn’t be a major factor when picking a player, provided it isn’t a complete disaster, AND the volume of shots is low
Therefore, to conclude, Bryan Mbeumo isn’t visibly a better finisher than Cunha
If at all
And no, finishing ability shouldn’t be a major factor when picking a player, provided it isn’t a complete disaster, AND the volume of shots is low
If a player is a poor finisher with a tiny shot volume, then yes, he’s doomed
But when the volume is healthy, it essentially doesn’t matter
The bottom line is, there are always some fixture runs when you can craft narratives that fit some strange agenda
What you should also...
But when the volume is healthy, it essentially doesn’t matter
The bottom line is, there are always some fixture runs when you can craft narratives that fit some strange agenda
What you should also...
... consider is the different dynamics when Benjamin Šeško becomes a regular starter
Mbeumo will likely benefit from that in terms of chance creation, though I’m not confident enough to say exactly how it will impact the goal-scoring ability of both players
However, based on...
Mbeumo will likely benefit from that in terms of chance creation, though I’m not confident enough to say exactly how it will impact the goal-scoring ability of both players
However, based on...
... the historical performances, I’m leaning towards the idea that Cunha is more likely to pose that threat
Then you need to consider fixtures, and that the team must adapt to a whole new dynamic
Currently, if I were to choose one of their attacking players mid-term, I would...
Then you need to consider fixtures, and that the team must adapt to a whole new dynamic
Currently, if I were to choose one of their attacking players mid-term, I would...
... feel the most comfortable with Cunha
I’m still uncertain about Bruno, who costs £0.9 million more
And I’m not sure about Mbeumo’s output until I see those new dynamics
Mbeumo might very well outscore all of United’s players in the short term, but it will be interesting...
I’m still uncertain about Bruno, who costs £0.9 million more
And I’m not sure about Mbeumo’s output until I see those new dynamics
Mbeumo might very well outscore all of United’s players in the short term, but it will be interesting...
... to revisit at the end of this season
Anyway, be aware that people often craft strange narratives on the internet
A) You must have evidence to claim something and present it as a fact
B) You should base decision-making on stuff that matters
Anyway, be aware that people often craft strange narratives on the internet
A) You must have evidence to claim something and present it as a fact
B) You should base decision-making on stuff that matters
🔹 Note
I wrote this entire section before yesterday’s match against Grimsby Town
Mbeumo’s goal and Cunha’s missed penalty make no difference to the finishing/goal-scoring analysis
It certainly did not boost my confidence in Bruno and Mbeumo, so Cunha remains the only...
I wrote this entire section before yesterday’s match against Grimsby Town
Mbeumo’s goal and Cunha’s missed penalty make no difference to the finishing/goal-scoring analysis
It certainly did not boost my confidence in Bruno and Mbeumo, so Cunha remains the only...
... one I would personally consider if I’d need someone to captain this gameweek, or I was thinking something like Cunha (C) in GW3, FH4, and WC8
It also depends on who you already own
Classic case of "it’s team dependent, bro"
It also depends on who you already own
Classic case of "it’s team dependent, bro"
🔶 Yeremy Pino to Crystal Palace?
This is the final week I can discuss some transfer rumours, so let’s get to it
Following Eberechi Eze’s departure, Crystal Palace are reportedly close to signing Yeremy Pino
Targeting a 22-year-old winger/#10 from La Liga’s Villarreal is...
This is the final week I can discuss some transfer rumours, so let’s get to it
Following Eberechi Eze’s departure, Crystal Palace are reportedly close to signing Yeremy Pino
Targeting a 22-year-old winger/#10 from La Liga’s Villarreal is...
... interesting move itself
Plus, Palace will soon enter a favourable run of fixtures, and there are also the usual suspects, who we all like
Ismaïla Sarr
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Daniel Muñoz
And a plethora of other defenders, with many of them already included in our GW1 teams
Plus, Palace will soon enter a favourable run of fixtures, and there are also the usual suspects, who we all like
Ismaïla Sarr
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Daniel Muñoz
And a plethora of other defenders, with many of them already included in our GW1 teams
Therefore, evaluating Pino could provide us with some valuable insights
His surface numbers of goals and assists suggest he’s mainly a creator (see below)
Let’s tell a more comprehensive story with some data included
Firstly, while he likely won’t become a focal point of...
His surface numbers of goals and assists suggest he’s mainly a creator (see below)
Let’s tell a more comprehensive story with some data included
Firstly, while he likely won’t become a focal point of...
... our FPL teams, depending on his role, there’s some potential to become a fine pick in some stages of the season
A lot of it will also depend on price, obviously
Last season, he only averaged 1.20 shots and 0.16 xG per 90, which is what Muñoz, as the right wing-back, can do
A lot of it will also depend on price, obviously
Last season, he only averaged 1.20 shots and 0.16 xG per 90, which is what Muñoz, as the right wing-back, can do
At first glance, that’s not very positive
However, there was one season in which he fulfilled a more advanced role
He averaged 1.75 shots and 0.24 xG per 90, and looking at his shot map, his shot selection was pretty good
Most of the attempts were coming from inside the box...
However, there was one season in which he fulfilled a more advanced role
He averaged 1.75 shots and 0.24 xG per 90, and looking at his shot map, his shot selection was pretty good
Most of the attempts were coming from inside the box...
... and there’s a decent chunk of it from central areas
So, depending on his role, he can offer some goal threat, although we probably can’t ever expect Eze-like goal production
Especially during this adaptation period he will enter
Now, the positives
And there’s quite...
So, depending on his role, he can offer some goal threat, although we probably can’t ever expect Eze-like goal production
Especially during this adaptation period he will enter
Now, the positives
And there’s quite...
... a few
He’s very creative and can translate it into the final 3rd threat
Although he didn’t take set pieces, he ranked in the 85th+ percentiles for:
• passes into the box
• passes leading directly to a shot
• entries with the ball into the box
• expected assists
He’s very creative and can translate it into the final 3rd threat
Although he didn’t take set pieces, he ranked in the 85th+ percentiles for:
• passes into the box
• passes leading directly to a shot
• entries with the ball into the box
• expected assists
• assists
He’s a bit static and doesn’t score very well in advanced data metrics that evaluate his threat with carries and dribbles, but he makes up for it with his passing
In the "goal probability added" metric from passing, he ranks among the top 10% of wingers in La Liga
He’s a bit static and doesn’t score very well in advanced data metrics that evaluate his threat with carries and dribbles, but he makes up for it with his passing
In the "goal probability added" metric from passing, he ranks among the top 10% of wingers in La Liga
His 0.19 xA and 0.30 A p90 in the last season show a decent potential, as his creative numbers remain very consistent during his career
That’s a good sign for a player this young
He can cross well from the wide, play diagonals from the half-spaces, and is a good distributor...
That’s a good sign for a player this young
He can cross well from the wide, play diagonals from the half-spaces, and is a good distributor...
... inside the box
Since Palace’s recruitment generally makes a lot of sense, I am confident that Glasner has clear plans on how to utilise Pino’s skill set as effectively as possible.
Alright, I know what’s running through your mind as you read this...
Since Palace’s recruitment generally makes a lot of sense, I am confident that Glasner has clear plans on how to utilise Pino’s skill set as effectively as possible.
Alright, I know what’s running through your mind as you read this...
🔶 Ismaïla Sarr (and Jean-Philippe Mateta)
With Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka, and Georginio Rutter injured, most of us are looking for new midfielders
And Ismaïla Sarr is one of the most talked about
Knowing Pino’s typology makes picking the Senegalese feel even more comfortable
With Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka, and Georginio Rutter injured, most of us are looking for new midfielders
And Ismaïla Sarr is one of the most talked about
Knowing Pino’s typology makes picking the Senegalese feel even more comfortable
Both he and JPM remain the most significant goal outlets, unless Palace surprise us with another signing this week
I’m fine with buying Sarr before Aston Villa this week
It’s the game where Emery might change things, and be more adventurous, as he played the last two games...
I’m fine with buying Sarr before Aston Villa this week
It’s the game where Emery might change things, and be more adventurous, as he played the last two games...
... without recognised wingers, and Youri Tielemans as a number ten, even though he’s clearly better suited for the number 8 role
We have enough sample size of games throughout his career to say that
And if that doesn’t work out, the GW4 fixture swing is there up for the grabs
We have enough sample size of games throughout his career to say that
And if that doesn’t work out, the GW4 fixture swing is there up for the grabs
It’s still debatable whether some of the fixtures will actually be as favourable as they appear now on paper
But you will hardly regret having their players for Sunderland and West Ham in GWs 4 and 5, respectively
Plus, they are genuinely a good team with a great coach
But you will hardly regret having their players for Sunderland and West Ham in GWs 4 and 5, respectively
Plus, they are genuinely a good team with a great coach
So, no need to overthink—if there are signals it’s not working out, you can easily pivot to someone else
However, both Sarr and Mateta present a significant goal threat
It’s a shame Sarr isn’t more trigger-happy inside the box, but still, a good pick for just £6.5m
However, both Sarr and Mateta present a significant goal threat
It’s a shame Sarr isn’t more trigger-happy inside the box, but still, a good pick for just £6.5m
🔶 Data Dribble
Join 2,600 other FPL managers who receive a free newsletter in their inbox each week
This week’s edition covers more mythbusting, Spurs, and João Palhinha 🔽
In the premium deep dive, I cover midfielders from ALL 20 Premier League sides datadribble.co/p/weekly-dribb…
Join 2,600 other FPL managers who receive a free newsletter in their inbox each week
This week’s edition covers more mythbusting, Spurs, and João Palhinha 🔽
In the premium deep dive, I cover midfielders from ALL 20 Premier League sides datadribble.co/p/weekly-dribb…
That’s a wrap!
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