Thread by @VirtualBacon0x

📘 Beginner’s Crypto Bull Market Guide 📘

I’ve traded 2 full bull runs and made millions.
If this is your first cycle, you can still lose money even in a bull run.

Here’s my framework to survive and thrive in the 2025–26 cycle 🧵👇

1/x Everyone wonders how long this bull run will last.

Past cycles topped ~600 days after halving, which would mean end of 2025.

But $BTC isn’t near euphoria yet, it would need $180K+ this year. That’s unlikely.

I expect this run to extend into mid-2026.

2/x The next question is how high #Bitcoin can go.

My base case target is $200K+.

This comes from historic multipliers plus new drivers: ETFs, institutions, and liquidity.

$200K isn’t a moonshot, it’s my conservative baseline.

3/x The bigger challenge is knowing when it ends.

I use one rule: the 50-week SMA.

$BTC has respected it every cycle. It’s ~$94K now and rising.

If BTC closes below that line, the bull run is done, even if $200K hasn’t hit.

4/x So what exactly is altcoin season?

It’s when alts outperform $BTC together.

Officially, that means 75% of the top 50–100 alts beat BTC over 90 days.

That’s the period when even picking random large caps usually works.

5/x How do you confirm altseason is real?

Two signals:
1️⃣Altseason Index → % of alts beating BTC
2️⃣BTC Dominance → downtrend = alts leading

Right now, dominance is falling on the weekly chart. That’s why we’re in altseason.

6/x How does money actually flow in altseason? It always moves in stages:

1️⃣ Large caps ( $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, $BNB, $DOGE)
2️⃣ Mid caps (top 50–100, narratives like AI/gaming)
3️⃣ Small caps last (memes, high risk)

Follow the flow. Don’t jump straight into small caps too early.

7/x So how am I positioned?

In 2023–24 I held 40–50% $BTC because dominance was high.

Right now:
🔹 20% $BTC
🔹 70% large-cap alts (top 20)
🔹 10% smaller caps

I manage them with swing trading bots, they buy near support, sell near resistance, and take emotion out of exits.

Copy my exact bot setups here 👉 bacon.link/all-bots

8/x What kind of returns are realistic?

My large-cap targets:

🔹 $ETH $10K–12K
🔹 $SOL $600–800
🔹 $XRP $6–8 (stretch $10)

That’s 2–3x from here.

Mid caps: 4–5x.
Top 100: 5–8x.

10x+ dreams usually mean extreme small-cap risk.

9/x How long will altseason last this time?

2017 → ~10 months
2021 → ~11 months

This cycle started Aug 2025. I expect mid-to-late 2026 as the cutoff. Gains will mostly be made well before then.

10/x How do I know when altseason is over?

Two signals:
1️⃣ Altseason Index < 75% outperforming $BTC
2️⃣ $BTC dominance flips into a weekly uptrend (higher highs & lows)

That’s the exit signal. Even if targets aren’t hit, I’ll exit alts if BTC dominance reverses.

11/x What if $BTC breaks down before alts peak?

Then it’s game over.

If BTC closes below the 50-week SMA, I exit alts immediately. BTC sets the floor for the entire market.

12/x What happens after the bull run?

I’ll sell all alts, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP because once they’re worth hundreds of billions, upside is capped.

Then I’ll roll into $BTC until $200K.

At $200K, I’ll split 50% BTC, 50% cash.

13/x Why only #Bitcoin long term?

Global wealth = $700T. Gold = 5%. BTC = 0.7%.

If $BTC hits just 3% allocation → $1M per coin.

That’s why I use this cycle to stack Bitcoin. Alts are trades. Bitcoin is the endgame.

14/x The goal isn’t to chase every pump, it’s to follow a process.

📌 $BTC peak ~2026.
📌 Money flow BTC → large caps → mid caps → small caps.
📌 Exit when dominance flips or targets hit.
📌 Stack $BTC for the next decade.

My bots execute this plan without emotion.
Copy them directly here 👉 bacon.link/all-bots

15/x Most beginners lose money in bull markets because they have no framework.

Now you do:
🔹Timeline
🔹Targets
🔹Signals
🔹Process

Stay disciplined. Follow the flow. Take profits.

The bull run will end, but your gains don’t have to if you play it smart.

Let me know how you're playing this cycle below👇