Thread by @SurmountInvest

OpenAI's CEO just made a shocking warning:

"We're in an AI bubble."

MIT research shows 95% of AI projects are failing.

Top AI stocks like Palantir crashed 20% in one week alone.

Here's the shocking truth behind it (and how smart investors are positioning):🧵

Sam Altman compared today's AI market to the dot-com crash of 2000.

University professors predict AI investors will "suffer far more" than dot-com victims.

Billionaire Ray Dalio warns: "Great technology ≠ great investment."

Sounds scary, but the data tells a different story:

The dot-com comparison is completely wrong.

had zero revenue. Zero profits. Just dreams and websites.

Today's AI leaders? Nvidia, Google, Meta...

Massive revenues. High margins. Real infrastructure.

The fundamentals couldn't be more different. Pets.com

Here's the MIT reality check:

95% of companies launching AI pilot programs see "little to no results."

But that's not the whole picture.

It takes millions, sometimes billions, to compete in AI today.

Unlike 2000, there are real barriers to entry:

Compare the markets:

2000: Cheap to start a dot-com. Just needed a website.
2025: Need massive infrastructure & specialized chips.

2000: No consumer demand for online services.
2025: AI is already baked into every app we use.

Supply vs. demand dynamics are completely flipped.

The real bubble isn't in AI infrastructure.

Semiconductor companies report 80%+ revenue growth.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon show 30% data center growth.

They're investing $100 billion each this year to meet demand.

That's not bubble behavior. That's genuine scarcity...

The bubble is in AI software companies.

Palantir trades at a high forward P/E ratio of around 250x, showing growth expectations despite slower revenue growth.

All while Nvidia trades at much lower forward P/Es with massive revenues and profits.

But here's the twist:

Even buying Microsoft at the absolute peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000 would have made you money.

$10,000 invested then = $85,000 today.

9% compound returns for 25 years straight.

The lesson?

Quality beats timing.

Great companies survive bubbles.

The Morgan Stanley research breaks AI stocks into three categories:

- Semiconductors (foundation layer)
- Infrastructure (data centers)
- Software/services (applications)

History shows how this plays out:

Foundation companies get built first (chips, infrastructure).
Application companies come later but have the biggest long-term returns.

The infrastructure must exist before applications can scale.

We're still in the infrastructure phase.

The numbers prove it:

Average bear market: 1 year duration, 36% decline.
Average bull market: 6+ years, 200%+ returns.

Even the worst crashes (2008, 2000) lasted 2 years max.
The biggest bull run? 12 years, 600% gains.

Math heavily favors patient investors:

Market corrections happen every 3 years on average.

- 14% average decline.
- 5 months to bottom.
- 4 months to recover.

The S&P 500 sees 1.2 pullbacks per year.

But it always recovers to new highs.

So what's the smart play?

Don't panic. Don't try to time the crash.

The real opportunity isn't timing the bubble.

It's positioning for the next 10 years while others panic about the next 10 months.

The infrastructure build-out is just beginning.

And that creates wealth for patient investors.

The problem most investors face?

They try to time every bubble, crash, and correction.

They second-guess every move and end up buying high, selling low.

The solution is automated investing that removes emotions entirely:

Investors: Surmount already helped over 40,000 investors automate their investments.

We have over $150M in assets under management.

Sign up for FREE here: surmount.ai/strategies?utm…

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