🚨 Trump just checkmated India’s oil game.
🇮🇳 Saved $17B buying Russia’s “discount” crude.
🇺🇸 Trump’s new tariffs will cost them $37B.
Wipeout.
And that’s just the warning shot, to ALL Putin's customers. It can get much worse.
They'll start pushing Putin to make peace.
🧵
🇮🇳 Saved $17B buying Russia’s “discount” crude.
🇺🇸 Trump’s new tariffs will cost them $37B.
Wipeout.
And that’s just the warning shot, to ALL Putin's customers. It can get much worse.
They'll start pushing Putin to make peace.
🧵
2/ After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India became Putin’s lifeline—snapping up cheap oil no one else would touch.
Today, nearly 40% of India’s crude comes from Russia.
That cash pays for Putin’s war machine.
Trump decided: enough.
Today, nearly 40% of India’s crude comes from Russia.
That cash pays for Putin’s war machine.
Trump decided: enough.
3/ On Wednesday, Trump’s 25% general tariff + 25% penalty tariff for Russian oil imports went live.
Result: India’s “savings” from cheap Russian oil → totally erased.
They’ll LOSE about $20B this fiscal year compared to sticking with free-world suppliers.
Result: India’s “savings” from cheap Russian oil → totally erased.
They’ll LOSE about $20B this fiscal year compared to sticking with free-world suppliers.
4/ But that's just the beginning. Trump has threatened 100% tariffs. And Congress is about to authorize 500% against China.
That would force them all to cry uncle.
Add in heightened military support to Ukraine - more effective, longer-range - and Putin needs to make peace.
That would force them all to cry uncle.
Add in heightened military support to Ukraine - more effective, longer-range - and Putin needs to make peace.
5/ India won’t ditch Moscow completely.
But the math is brutal.
Every barrel of Russian oil now comes with a Trump tax that outweighs the “discount.”
For New Delhi, loyalty to Russia just got very expensive.
It'll soon get a lot worse.
But the math is brutal.
Every barrel of Russian oil now comes with a Trump tax that outweighs the “discount.”
For New Delhi, loyalty to Russia just got very expensive.
It'll soon get a lot worse.
6/ Could this harm U.S.-India relations? Yes.
But India needs U.S. trade, U.S. investment, and U.S. defense ties far more than they need Russia.
Strategically, America > Moscow.
And if Putin makes peace, no more economic pressure. Everybody wins.
But India needs U.S. trade, U.S. investment, and U.S. defense ties far more than they need Russia.
Strategically, America > Moscow.
And if Putin makes peace, no more economic pressure. Everybody wins.
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