Thread by @karimfranceschi

In the month of August, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) executed twelve combined strike operations against PKK positions in northern Iraq.

Why is this happening against the backdrop of the ongoing peace process?

A thread—🧵

https://twitter.com/karimfranceschi/status/1939421501519704535

These operations incorporated air-delivered munitions and artillery fire support. Simultaneously, persistent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) activity was observed across the battlespace, in support of strike coordination & damage assessment. [HPG sources]

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During this period, a Turkish parliamentary commission was already in motion to formalize political engagement, while the PKK undertook visible steps toward de-escalation, including a disarmament ceremony and its formal declaration of organizational dissolution.

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The persistence of Turkish strikes, even amid disarmament gestures, suggests a dual-track strategy: leveraging military pressure to constrain PKK maneuver and narratives, while simultaneously pursuing political mechanisms to finalize settlement.

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This textbook coercive diplomacy—wherein the calibrated application of force serves both to degrade adversary capability & to compel compliance in negotiations.

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In military accademia this doctrine has name: coercive pacification, wherein the state actor employs a blend of hard military power and controlled political concessions to neutralize insurgent movements.

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The strategic aim is not mutual reconciliation but the redefinition of the adversary’s status: from belligerent actor to subordinate political participant, stripped of autonomous coercive capacity. In simpler words, to neuter the Kurdish political movement power center.

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