There's mainly 2 types of players building right now
a) Tooling/Wrappers/Terminals for Polymarket And Kalshi. The best one's I've seen are - @betmoardotfun, @poly_data, @hash_dive and @Polysights. They offer the best combination of filtering, smart money tracking and market discovery.
Keep an eye on @fliprbot and @polycule_bot as well on the terminal side of things
b) Novel Prediction Market platforms trying to improve on models already popularised by PM and Kalshi. Main players here are - @MyriadMarkets, @meleemarkets, @trylimitless
My thoughts - Personally more bullish on apps building on top of Polymarket and Kalshi. They have access to deep liquidity from day one and can focus more on perfecting the UX and trying to onboard more normies
It'll be tough for new PMs to compete with them on liquidity and diversity of markets
The only way new prediction markets can succeed is by solving the liquidity issue using a combination of - Market making vaults + a hybrid orderbook-pool model. DM me if you're trying to solve this I have some thoughts
We are still early and there are so many projects launching soon. I track them all using this dashboard made by @figo_saleh
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@balajis and @lexfridman did an 8 hour podcast. That's right. 8 hours. Yes, it was long but the information density per minute was vertiginous. We took notes so you don't have to. Here's what we found most interesting.
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1) The duo cover a range of topics from math, science, technology, history, finance, economics, politics, government, to academia, etc.
For our purposes, let's focus on decentralization, which is a central tenet to Balaji's thesis. No pun intended.
2) Government - These days, anyone can start a company, create a community or invent a new currency.
So why can't this line of thinking be extended to states themselves?
Balaji posits that they can, alluding to a term he's coined 'The Network State'.
It's easy to write tendentious articles excoriating today's social media empires. Anyone with half a brain can enumerate the inherent shortcomings of the ad-driven business model. What's not easy is designing and building an alternative system with better incentives.
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1) @StaniKulechov the founder of @AaveAave, one of the largest DeFi protocols with $4b TVL, is attempting to just this with @LensProtocol. Without belaboring the point, let's briefly touch on what's wrong with traditional social media companies.
2) Traditional social media companies build up network effects by offering free services in their infancy (attract phase).
Once they reach critical mass, they start selling users' data to companies (extract phase). Data sold is harnessed for targeted advertising.
Mesopotamian cuneiform tablets are humanity's oldest remnants of written communication. These tablets contain ledger entries. So, borrowing and lending are as old as the written word. What about interest rates on loans? Are these Lindy too? Maybe.
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1) @LiquityProtocol asserts that lending and borrowing can be conducted without levying interest.
2) Liquity is a decentralized, collateralized debt position (CDP) protocol.
It allows users to draw interest free loans in $LUSD (the native, dollar-pegged stablecoin) against $ETH used as collateral.
They say crypto doesn't have real world non financial use-cases. The team building @helium proves otherwise. Here's how helium ($HNT) used cryptoeconomics to bootstrap decentralized physical infrastructure that dwarfs the largest telecom providers today.
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1) Helium is a decentralized wireless network, built on @ethereum, that serves IoT (Internet of Things) devices.
The network is present in 65,000+ cities & 160+ countries. It's powered by over 1 million hotspots globally.
2) The HNT token is the cryptocurrency of the network. Customers burn HNT in exchange for data credits. Data credits are spent to use the network.
Validators (Miners) who run hotspots are then rewarded with a share of HNT tokens.
Crypto naysayers often ask the simple rhetorical question. If crypto is sound money, why do people still measure their crypto assets in fiat terms? “I have $10,000 worth of BTC.” or “The sum of all my crypto holdings is $100,000.” Ha! Gotcha!
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1) Counterintuitively, counting crypto assets in fiat terms does not lend credence to fiat’s persistence as a unit of account in the future. Historically, long after currencies collapsed, people still used them as a unit of account.
2) In fact, following the collapse of a dominant hegemonic currency, the more frequent solution was to adopt some sort of credit system. The old currency was removed from circulation and was no longer minted or issued. Still, its utility as a unit of account persisted.
Structured Products for Blockspace. Ugh. Is this another form of unnecessary over-financialization in crypto? Or do these products create real value for real people? Let's find out.