Zero Equilibrium Profile picture
Sep 4 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Certain Economic Truths A Politician cannot be Caught Dead Saying: 🧵

1. “There's always going to be a portion of the labor market that will be unemployed at every point in time”

It’s called natural unemployment. Even in the healthiest economies, people change jobs, industries shift, and skills mismatch.

1/9
2. Inflation isn't always bad, and could be necessary to grease the wheels of capitalism.

Moderate inflation keeps money moving, makes debt easier to manage, and prevents wage stagnation. Zero or negative inflation can stall growth, as it would mean demand is failing or stagnant.

2/9
3. We will never be able to pay up all our debt. There's no plan to eliminate debt, but to reduce/manage it.

Governments roll debt indefinitely. The real issue isn’t the number, but sustainability, interest payments, and credibility.

3/9
4. Tax cuts may not increase your disposable income.

The benefits often flow to the wealthy, while reduced government revenue can mean higher prices, weaker services, or new taxes later.

4/9
5. “Strong” currencies aren't a sign of economic strength

They can make imports cheaper, but they hurt exports and domestic industries – all things being equal. A balance is healthier than an overvalued currency.

5/9
6. Subsidies, Healthcare, or Education are never and will never be “free”.

Someone pays, either through taxes, debt, or a reduction in real disposable income (inflation). The real debate is who is paying what, what is being paid for, and how efficiently it’s spent.

6/9
7. GDP growth doesn't mean your lifestyle will improve.

Growth can hide inequality, poverty, and declining quality of life. Rising GDP ≠ better living standards for all.

7/9
8. Foreign investment isn’t a favor, it's just business and there aren't emotions attached to it, no one cares how you feel about a company leaving or entering into the local market.

8/9
Capital inflows are about profit, not goodwill. Investors come because they expect returns, not because they want to develop your country, if they leave it's because they see no value proposition in continuing operations within a particular economic territory.

✍🏾 By @Muhammad_Okoye

9/9

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More from @0Equilibrium

Sep 6
Financial Markets and Macro Weekly
(Zero Equilibrium for the Week Ending September 6, 2025):

This week was eventful in the markets as we looked at market expectations of Central Bank policy decision in September, France's fiscal fragility, crypto and commodity market moves and market reactions to US Jobs Numbers.

1/7
Central Banks: September Policy Outlook:

• ECB & BoE are expected to hold rates steady this September amid sticky inflation and slowing growth. UBS sees the ECB’s easing cycle concluded, while the BoE is seen pausing at 4% before a 25 bps cut in November.

• Fed is widely expected to cut rates at its September FOMC meeting (16–17th), reinforcing a weaker USD outlook.

• SNB likely to hold, while Riksbank could deliver a final 25 bps cut.

• CBN: Zero Equilibrium expectations for the central bank of Nigeria interest rate policy is to hold Monetary Policy Rates, but a cut will not be surprising if the federal reserve cuts.

ZE View: A Fed cut alongside steady ECB/BoE policy stances points to a weaker dollar, firmer EURUSD and GBPUSD, and bullish momentum for Treasuries, gold, and EM assets. But Eurozone tariff risks could cap EUR upside, or even create a bearish situation.

2/7
France Replaces Italy as Fiscal Weak Link
• France’s fiscal deficit (5.8% of GDP in 2024) is widening faster than Italy’s (3.4%), even though France's debt stands at 113% of GDP vs Italy’s 135%.

• Political gridlock around the 2026 budget (€44bn in cuts planned) has rattled markets, pushing French 30-year bond yields above a 16 year high of 4.5%.

• Both France and Italy remain under the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure, but Italy is projected to stabilize faster.

ZE View: Without ECB support, French yields will stay elevated, as investors will continue to favor safety and quality, leaving French bonds vulnerable to price declines. There is a level of contagion risks of a spillover into Bunds and BTPs.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jun 30
A Review of Human Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis in 'Can it Happen Again' 🧵 2/2;

An Effective Monetary Policy Constraint:
Given the threat of a run of deposits from savings and loans companies,....
1/29 Image
He states that "the one effective constraint upon the Federal Reserve policies is the need to maintain interest rates on secure assets available to households in the neighborhood of the rates which savings and loans associations and mutual savings banks can afford to pay."
2/29
The federal reserve seems "constrained by the structure of the financial markets and cannot allow too great a rise in interest rates on deposits to take place."

When commercial bank competition for "retail-sized time deposits"...
3/29
Read 30 tweets
Jun 30
A Review of Human Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis in 'Can it Happen Again' 🧵 1/2

Chapter 8: The New uses of Monetary Powers.

Here Minsky talks about the changes in the markets due to strains and stresses.

1/19 Image
And as a result of this, "market instruments, institutions and usages have undergone marked changes, as well as the Federal Reserve System as well as other agencies of the peculiarly decentralized central bank of the United States [Fed],...
2/19
...responded by adjusting their operations: monetary powers have been used in different ways."

The new uses he says calls for a reexamination of "the domain or responsibility of the Federal Reserve and the relationship between it and other regulatory agencies.

3/19
Read 19 tweets
Jun 26
'Oil climbs as investors shift focus to demand signals, dollar weakens'

By - Nicole Jao for @Reuters

Crude Oil inventories not the war is driving oil prices. The U.S. demand as well as refining challenges...

1/8

reuters.com/business/energ…
... coupled with a weaker dollar are also factors that seem supportive of Oil.

Per @Reuters; "The market is starting to digest the fact that crude oil inventories are very tight all of a sudden".

2/8
This is as Brent futures and WTI futures hit 1.7% and 2.03% to reach "$68.83 [Brent] a barrel at 11:37 a.m. EDT (1637 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.32, or 2.03%, to $66.24 a barrel."

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Jun 26
On Milei’s “New Feat”: Why the dust Has not Settled.

A lot has been said about the Argentine economic growth, as they return to positive territory leaving out the hidden conjectures as economists on tos X space seem focused on the surface data.
1/11
This misses the broader context that challenges the narrative around the Milei turnaround.

The 5.8% growth is nothing but a marginal improvement at grave costs with sustainability in doubt, and the countries economic situation is just as precarious and unstable as before.
2/11
I'd address the two largest achievements that has been used to tout Mileinomics to show the masked distraught economic situation.

Inflation:

Milei's adminstration begun with as steep fiscal and monetary tightening, this crushed aggregate demand, and...

3/11
Read 11 tweets
Jun 15
The Iran-Israel War: What It Means for Oil & Gold Prices 🧵.

The war between Iran & Israel aren't just geopolitics, they ripple through global markets. Oil and gold are first responders. We outline how the war affects both commodities.
#OilPrices #Gold #MiddleEast
1/11
#OilPrices:

Volatility is on high alert
as the Middle East holds over 30% of the world’s oil. Any threat to shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz (which Iran borders) sends oil prices climbing, due to supply fears and risk premium attached to the commodity.
#OilPrices
2/11
In April 2024, even threats of Iranian retaliation sent Brent crude surging above $90. Imagine the impact if the war escalates to disrupt physical flows? We could see a $100 oil.

#OilPrices #Gold #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Markets #Iran #Israel #Commodities #Trading

3/11
Read 11 tweets

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