Shaun Pinner Profile picture
Sep 6 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
🚨 Why Igor Girkin’s prison letters matter
One of Putin’s own warlords is openly declaring Russia’s war in Ukraine a failure. Who is Girkin, what does he say, and why will he probably die in prison? Let’s break it down 🧵

1/6 Who is Igor Girkin?

🇷🇺 Girkin (aka Strelkov) isn’t just another prisoner. He’s a former FSB officer, one of the architects of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, commander of Donbas “separatists” (word used loosely), and tied to the MH17 shoot-down that killed 298 civilians.Image
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2/6 Why his words matter

From prison, Girkin writes that Russia’s “SMO” has failed. Moscow can’t defeat Ukraine, can’t hold Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, and faces either capitulation or total war. That’s open defiance of Kremlin propaganda. Image
3/6 Nationalist, Not a liberal critic.

Girkin is no opposition democrat. He’s a hardline nationalist who once led the war to carve up Ukraine. When he says the war is doomed, it pierces straight through the Kremlin’s lies, pointing out Putin is failing. Image
4/6 Putin’s red lines

In today’s Russia, even ultra-hawks can’t criticize the war. The Kremlin tolerates no dissent. Girkin’s blunt honesty crossed Putin’s invisible line and that’s a death sentence in itself like Yevgeny Prigozhin and Navalny before him.

Pic: Yevgeny Prigozhin and his plane hit by an Air Defence missile after a coup attempt in 2023Image
5/6 The prison warning

Russian jails are silent execution chambers. I know, I’ve experienced them. Accidents, sudden illness, torture or poisoning are the regime’s way of erasing critics. Girkin himself admits he may not survive.

Pic: Navalny, another critic and opposition leader murdered by PutinImage
6/6 — The irony

Girkin once served Russia’s imperial project. He even admitted to rounding up “Crimean Deputies” at gunpoint during Russia’s takeover of Crimea. Now he’s trapped by the very system he helped build. His prison letters expose not only Russia’s military failures, but Putin’s fear of the truth. That’s why Igor Girkin will likely die in prison.
Just to expand on the comments from Former Donbas separatist commander and FSB Officer Igor Girkin-Strelkov, responsible for the 2014 invasion of Ukraine:

•“The current ‘SMO’ format is exhausted and can’t deliver victory over Ukraine. Moscow’s push for new ‘borders’ proves it.

•Abandoning Kherson & Zaporizhzhia shows the Kremlin can’t win on the battlefield. Costly tactical gains mean nothing.

•Kyiv won’t concede unless defeated and our forces cannot defeat them.

•The choice: capitulation or total war.

•For now, the Kremlin just drags out time, waiting for orders from Beijing.

•Without a revolution in leadership, this war is doomed to catastrophe.

• • •

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More from @olddog100ua

Aug 27
1/6 – 🎯 Ukraine’s Precision Strikes

Ukraine’s drones have knocked out 17 % of Russia’s oil refining capacity, over 1.1M barrels/day gone. A devastating blow to Putin’s “untouchable” energy lifeline. Image
2/6 – ⛽ Shortages in the Empire of Oil

Across Russia’s Far East, Crimea & southern regions: gas stations ration fuel and queues stretch for hours. A petro-giant suddenly “running on empty.” Image
3/6 – 🔥 Burned by Rising Costs

Gas prices have shot up about 50 % since January, even reaching the equivalent of $10 a gallon in some areas. Meanwhile, the average monthly wage in Russia is around ₽88,000–99,000 (~$980–$1,113). That means for most working Russians, fuel now eats up a painfully large share of income, turning a simple commute into a financial burden.Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 24
1/7 The reality is simple, Russia has failed:

Russia will not stop this war until it accepts it’s losing. I’d argue Putin already is, and for some time, but he won’t admit it. Until pressure is applied, Ukraine will need to keep pushing drones deep into Russia, hitting strategic targets and crippling the war machine:

Russia’s major losses (2022–2025)
•❌ Over 1 million casualties (killed & wounded combined).
•❌ 55% of territory lost from what was initially captured in 2022.
•❌ 1/3 of Russia’s tactical bomber fleet destroyed.
•❌ Black Sea dominance broken, fleet ships sunk, Sevastopol and Crimea unsafe.
•❌ 13.5% of oil refining capacity knocked out by Ukrainian drones (≈44M tons/year offline).
•❌ Economy strained — sanctions, export revenue collapse, ruble instability.
•❌ Elite units attrited — VDV, Marines, Wagner remnants all heavily degraded.
•❌ International isolation — reliant on Iran, North Korea, and China’s limited support.Image
2/7 Failed, Failed & Failed:

In more than over 3 years fighting, Putin has FAILED to achieve a single principle objective of its invasion and is in a considerably worse situation now, than prior to February 2022:

•❌ Topple Kyiv & Zelensky
•❌ Seize all of Donetsk & Luhansk
•❌ Cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea
•❌ Stop NATO expansion
•❌ Weaken the West’s resolveImage
3/7 Why Putin can’t end the war:

Putin can’t end the war because his entire survival depends on it. If he admits defeat, he exposes himself to internal collapse, facing humiliation, elite betrayal, and the very real risk of a palace coup. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has no off-ramp for him: he either “wins,” or he falls.Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 21
1/6 Everything’s Flipped:

Since the Alaska talks, everything has flipped in Russia’s favour. What was once firm red lines are now being erased by Trump’s desperation for a “deal.” It’s not diplomacy, it’s capitulation dressed up for a Nobel prize photo-op. Image
2/6 The ceasefire line went first:

Ukraine pushed for it, Russia flatly rejected it, yet Trump quietly dropped it from discussions. Without a ceasefire, Russia keeps bombing Kharkiv, killing civilians, and advancing at will. Image
3/6 Territory Swap and the Master of Disaster:

Now it’s ceding territory. Trump’s camp floats the idea Ukraine should ‘give up land’ while Russia gives up nothing. That’s legitimising conquest, rewarding genocide with borders, while Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff bumbles names, misplaces locations, and can’t even translate Putin’s demands.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/19/ste…Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 17
1/6 Reuters has published what they say is Putin’s ‘peace’ terms for Ukraine:

– No ceasefire until full agreement
– Ukraine must withdraw from Donetsk & Luhansk
– Russia freezes front lines in Kherson & Zaporizhzhia
– Crimea ‘recognized’ as Russian
– NATO ban for Ukraine
– Partial sanctions relief
– Russian language & church rights imposed

Putin’s so-called peace proposal isn’t peace, it’s surrender dressed up in bullet points. It’s no change from 2014 or 2022. Russia still demands Ukraine hand over land it couldn’t win militarily.
reuters.com/world/china/ou…Image
2/6 Accepting these terms means legitimizing Russia’s invasion.

It rewards genocide, torture, and war crimes by letting Moscow keep stolen territory. No country on Earth should accept that precedent and what’s worse, is the American President is pushing to “make a deal” and providing legitimacy to these acts.Image
3/6 It’s a trap

Look closely: Putin isn’t offering a ceasefire until after Ukraine agrees. Translation: Russia gets time to regroup, rearm, and strike again whenever it chooses. That’s not peace- it’s a trap showing no clear commitment.

It’s not the first time I’ve seen Russia break a treaty, ceasefire or an accord.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 15
1/4 The Ukrainian General Staff has said that the situation on the Pokrovsk front, where a group of Russian troops recently broke through near the town of Dobropillia, is stabilising. Image
2/4 As I’ve said previously, the ground around Pokrovsk is extremely difficult terrain, especially if you are an aggressor army. Rather like East Anglia, it’s flat with heavy agricultural, ploughed fields and crops with thin tree lines and little cover.
3/4 Russian “motorbike breakthrough” near Pokrovsk is turning into a disaster. 🇷🇺 sources admit their troops are cut off & without supplies. Flanks unprotected, units isolated, POWs taken. Ukraine has sent Azov & reinforcements, what began as a push is fast becoming a trap. Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 12
1/6 Russia’s Maximalist Dream vs. Reality

Putin can’t win militarily. Russia’s economy is flatlining. Yet Trump’s Alaska meeting may hand the Kremlin a political victory it couldn’t earn on the battlefield. Here’s how Russia’s “maximum ambition” is shrinking and why that’s dangerous.Image
2/6 Military Stalemate

Putin’s maximum ambition in Ukraine was never just about Donbas. It was the destruction of Ukrainian sovereignty and locking in a puppet state. But 2½ years later, he’s stuck. No decisive breakthrough. No path to Kyiv. The Kremlin’s dream is collapsing under its own weight.

Even with mass mobilisation, Russia can’t take Ukraine militarily. Attritional advances cost thousands of lives for metres gained. Equipment losses are unsustainable. The idea of conquering all of Ukraine is dead, they can barely hold what they’ve stolen.Image
3/6 The Economic Time Bomb

Russia’s economy is flatlining. Recent figures show oil & gas revenues tanking, foreign reserves haemorrhaging, and the Kremlin budget far more precarious than they admit. War spending keeps the lights on short-term, but long-term it’s eating their future alive.
kyivindependent.com/russian-econom…Image
Read 6 tweets

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