Brahmarshi ๐Ÿ“Š๐Ÿ“ˆ Profile picture
Sep 7 โ€ข 18 tweets โ€ข 5 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐™๐™๐™ง๐™š๐™–๐™™๐™จ๐Ÿงต: ๐™ƒ๐™ค๐™ฌ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐˜พ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™˜๐™ ๐˜ฝ๐™ž๐™œ ๐™ˆ๐™ค๐™ซ๐™š๐™จ ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™˜๐™ ๐™จ ๐™ฌ๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ ๐™…๐™ช๐™จ๐™ฉ ๐™Š๐™ฃ๐™š ๐™Ž๐™š๐™ฉ๐™ช๐™ฅ โ€“ ๐™‘๐˜พ๐™‹
๐Ÿ“Œ Bookmark this for reference & retweet. Image
๐™’๐™๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™‘๐˜พ๐™‹?
VCP stands for Volatility Contraction Pattern

๐™„๐™ฉ ๐™๐™–๐™จ 3 ๐™ฅ๐™–๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™จ:

โ–ช๏ธ๐™๐™–๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™š ๐™€๐™ญ๐™ฅ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ

โ–ช๏ธ๐™๐™–๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™š ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ

โ–ช๏ธ๐˜ฝ๐™ง๐™š๐™–๐™ ๐™ค๐™ช๐™ฉ

Think of it like a spring compressing before it BOOMS! Image
๐™๐™–๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™š ๐™€๐™ญ๐™ฅ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ: The price range is widening over time, showing increasing volatility.

๐™๐™–๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™š ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ:Price goes sideways in tighter and tighter ranges.

Institutional hands are loading up silently. Image
๐™๐™๐™š ๐™‡๐™ค๐™œ๐™ž๐™˜ (๐™Ž๐™ช๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™ก๐™ฎ & ๐˜ฟ๐™š๐™ข๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™)

โ–ช๏ธSellers get exhausted with each contraction.

โ–ช๏ธSupply keeps drying up

โ–ช๏ธBuyers remain steady.

โ–ช๏ธDemand builds silently

โ–ช๏ธBreakout happens when demand crushes supply. Image
๐™‘๐™ค๐™ก๐™ช๐™ข๐™š ๐˜พ๐™ก๐™ช๐™š๐™จ

โ–ช๏ธDuring contraction -> volume should dry up.

โ–ช๏ธDuring breakout -> volume should explode.

โ–ช๏ธThis validates the pattern. Image
The Contraction Principle (VCP + Volume)

In VCP, each contraction = volume dries further.

Last contraction = lowest volume.

Breakout = massive volume surge. Image
The 10 & 20 EMA are commonly used:

10 EMA: Helps track short term momentum.

20 EMA is a bit slower and acts as a short-term trend guide.

Final contraction in a VCP should ideally occur above the 20 EMA. This shows the stock is under accumulation and being supported by buyers. Image
๐™€๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ฎ ๐™Ž๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™ฉ๐™š๐™œ๐™ฎ:

โ–ช๏ธ๐™’๐™–๐™ž๐™ฉ ๐™›๐™ค๐™ง ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ž๐™™๐™š ๐™—๐™–๐™ง ๐™–๐™›๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ง ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ.

โ–ช๏ธ๐™€๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ง ๐™–๐™—๐™ค๐™ซ๐™š ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™š๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ช๐™จ ๐™๐™ž๐™œ๐™.

โ–ช๏ธ๐™†๐™š๐™š๐™ฅ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™ฅ ๐™ก๐™ค๐™จ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™š๐™ซ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ช๐™จ ๐™™๐™–๐™ฎ ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ. Image
๐™€๐™ญ๐™ž๐™ฉ ๐™Ž๐™ข๐™–๐™ง๐™ฉ ๐Ÿง ๐Ÿ“‰

โ–ช๏ธSell 50% at +15% (or after 3 days)

โ–ช๏ธRaise stop to cost after 3โ€“5% move in favor.

โ–ช๏ธTrail the rest with 10 & 20 ๐™€๐™ˆ๐˜ผ

โ–ช๏ธIf price goes parabolic, lock in gains early.

โ–ช๏ธAvoid greed - ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ๐™ž๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™˜๐™ฎ > ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ง๐™›๐™š๐™˜๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ
Failure Signs ๐Ÿšจ

โ–ช๏ธBreakout with weak volume

โ–ช๏ธWide bearish candle inside the base

โ–ช๏ธClosing below EMA
๐™Ž๐™˜๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™ก๐™ž๐™ ๐™š ๐™– ๐™ฅ๐™ง๐™ค:

โ–ช๏ธStock trading within 25% of its 52-week high

โ–ช๏ธUp at least 20% in the last 1 month & 30% in the last 3 months

โ–ช๏ธSector Strength : Focus on stocks from leading or emerging strong sectors.

Find โ€œyoung stocksโ€ breaking out of fresh bases.
Example

โ–ช๏ธStrong Rally First -> After a sharp move, sellers became active.

โ–ช๏ธVolume Declining -> With each contraction, supply kept drying up.

โ–ช๏ธHigher Lows -> Buyers stayed steady while sellers got exhausted.

โ–ช๏ธTighter Base -> Price squeezed into a narrow range. Image
โ–ช๏ธStock made multiple contractions with volume drying up.

โ–ช๏ธEach base was tighter than the previous one.

โ–ช๏ธFinally, a strong breakout with volume expansion.

โ–ช๏ธClassic example of how VCP works in practice. Image
โ–ช๏ธClear series of contractions & consolidations.

โ–ช๏ธNotice how the volatility reduces before the big move.

โ–ช๏ธBreakout happened with volume + price strength.

โ–ช๏ธPicture-perfect VCP setup in action. Image
โ–ช๏ธStrong Rejection at Top -> After the rally, sharp selling appeared.

โ–ช๏ธBuyers Step In -> Demand showed up near support zones.

โ–ช๏ธVolume Falling -> Each contraction showed supply drying up.

โ–ช๏ธTighter Consolidation -> Price compressed in a narrow range. Image
๐™ˆ๐™–๐™ง๐™ ๐™š๐™ฉ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™™๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™จ ๐™ข๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ฉ๐™š๐™ง.

โ–ช๏ธThis works BEST when index is above 10 & 20 EMA.

โ–ช๏ธFlat or bear markets? Avoid. Image
๐™‹๐™ง๐™ค ๐™๐™ž๐™ฅ: Image
๐™๐™ค๐™ก๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฌ ๐™ข๐™š @mohitrai55 ๐•—๐• ๐•ฃ ๐•ž๐• ๐•ฃ๐•– ๐•ก๐•ฃ๐•–๐•ž๐•š๐•ฆ๐•ž ๐•ฅ๐•ฃ๐•’๐••๐•š๐•Ÿ๐•˜ ๐•ฅ๐•™๐•ฃ๐•–๐•’๐••๐•ค - ๐•๐•š๐•œ๐•– ๐•โ„‚โ„™, ๐•—๐•๐•’๐•˜๐•ค & ๐•ฃ๐•–๐•ง๐•–๐•ฃ๐•ค๐•’๐•๐•ค ๐Ÿš€

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